情報通信技術과 國際資本移動

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Information and communication technology (ICT) has contributed to the second generation of financial globalization. ICT has been rapidly developing due to the fast growing of ICT infrastructure. This has caused firms’ lower costs and lower entry barriers to markets. It is widely believed that competition in the markets and welfare of consumers has been increased by the fast improving ICT. However little research has been conducted about the relationship between ICT and international capital movement. This paper surveys the relationship between ICT and international capital movement and determinants of international capital movement. The fact that information asymmetry can be mitigated by improvement of ICT is emphasized. This paper uses several data sources such as Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) of International Monetary Fund (IMF), Foreign Direct Investment of United Nations conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance of World Bank for empirical analyses. This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction. Chapter 2 studies the profiles of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI). Chapter 3 investigates the relationship between ICT and FPI. Chapter 4 examines the relationship between ICT and FDI. Chapter 5 makes conclusions.


Chapter2: The profiles of FPI and FDI

This chapter introduces literature reviews about the determinants of FPI and FDI. It also tries to explain why countries have been eager to induce FPI and FDI by presenting the characteristics of FPI and FDI. The theoretical backgrounds of the mechanism how ICT can impact on FPI and FDI are studied. Recent development of ICT has enabled people and countries to communicate easily and fast. Previous research points out that ICT has been a vital determinant of international capital movement and reorganization of world economy. However we don’t have sufficient empirical research on the relationship between ICT and financial globalization. This chapter argues that more research is needed to fill this gap.


Chapter 3: The relationship between ICT and FPI

This chapter contains empirical analyses using a panel data set of top 10 investor countries and host countries spanning the period 2001-2009. Extended gravity models, fixed effect models, and random effect models are applied to the analyses. I find the sufficient evidence that distance between an investor country and a host country has negative impact on international capital movement. The variable of the number of high-speed Internet subscribers is statistically significant in all the models. This result implies that the countries with well-developed ICT infrastructure are more likely engaged to more FPI than the countries with less-developed ICT infrastructure. I also find supporting evidence that countries with well-developed financial market tend to have more incentive to encourage international capital movement. This evidence unambiguously indicates that the development of ICT infrastructure can be significant to alleviate asymmetric information in the international capital market and to foster international capital mobility.


Chapter 4: The relationship between ICT and FDI

According Choi(2003), development of Internet has contributed to (i) lower entry barriers due to the decreased information searching costs, (ii) drop of inventory costs, and (iii) declines of government corruption. The author argues that these three changes can increase productivity, which attracts more FDI. This chapter empirically examines the determinants of FDI focused on the development of ICT. I apply fixed effect models and Hausman-Taylor models to a panel data set of 199 countries from 1970 to 2010. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) models using instrumental variables (IV) are also applied to the empirical analyses in order to control endogeneity of variables of ICT infrastructure. The result shows that the coefficients of the instrumental variables for ICT infrastructure are positive and statistically significant. The magnitudes of the coefficients are somewhat different across different groups with different income level or region. These results can be stepping stones for the future research seeking more general relationship between ICT and FDI using data with wider regions and longer time period.


Chapter 5: Conclusions

I summarize the results and limitations of the empirical analyses. Some research questions for the future study are also found in this chapter.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2차 금융세계화의 진전에 가장 큰 역할을 담당한 것은 정보통신기술(ICT)의 발전이다. 정보통신기술은 빠른 속도로 발전하고 있으며, 이에 따라 정보통신 인프라도 빠르게 축적되고 있다. 정보통신기술 발전은 비용감소를 통해 신규시장에 대한 진입 동기를 부여함으로써 경쟁을 늘리고 소비자의 후생을 증가시키는 결과로 나타났다. 하지만 지금까지 정보통신기술과 국제자본이동 간의 관계를 규명하고자 시도한 연구는 극히 제한적이다. 본 논문은 국제자본이동과 정보통신기술 간의 관계를 규명하고, 국제자본이동 결정요인에 대한 해답을 정보통신기술 발전에서 찾고자 하였다. 정보통신기술 발전에 따른 획기적인 정보량 증대가 정보비대칭을 완화시킬 수 있다는 점에 주목하고자 한다. 이를 위해 다양한 자료를 수집하여 계량경제학적 방법으로 실증분석 하였다. 주로 연도별 국가간 간접투자 보유량이 나타나 있는 국제통화기금의 CPIS(Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey)와 국가별 직접투자에 대한 정보를 제공하고 있는 국제연합무역개발협의회(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)의 Foreign Direct Investment, 세계은행의 World Development Indicators and Global Development Finance 자료를 이용하여 분석하였다. 여기에 정보통신변수와 주요 경제변수들을 더하여 정보통신기술을 중심으로 한 국가별 외국인간접투자와 직접투자의 결정요인 분석을 수행하였다. 체계적인 분석을 위해 세편의 소논문을 구성하였으며, 각 소논문은 다음과 같다.

제2장 외국인 간접투자와 직접투자의 현황과 연구동향

본 연구를 통해 금융세계화와 관련된 국제자본이동 중 FPI와 FDI를 살펴보았다. 각각의 투자형태 결정요인에 관한 다양한 선행연구를 소개하였으며, 이를 바탕으로 본고의 연구방향을 설정하였다. FPI와 FDI의 특성 및 장․단점을 비교하여 세계 각국이 해외자본 유치에 심혈을 기울이고 있는 이유를 설명하고자 하였다. 끝으로 정보통신기술이 국제자본이동에 미치는 영향을 고찰하고, 이를 중심으로 본 논문에서 분석하고자 하는 정보통신기술이 FPI와 FDI에 미치는 영향을 정리하였다. 인터넷을 중심으로 한 최근의 정보통신기술 발전은 정보의 대량생산과 공급을 가능하게 하였고, 이전의 어느 매체보다 확산속도가 빠르며 전세계를 아우르는 광범위한 영향력을 가지고 있다. 이에 따라 정보통신기술은 세계경제를 재편하는 가장 중요한 원인으로 작용해 왔으며, 많은 선행연구에서 정보통신기술 발전을 국제자본이동의 주요한 증가 요인으로 지적하고 있다. 하지만 정작 정보통신기술이 금융세계화에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구는 극히 제한적이다. 본 논문을 통해 정보통신기술 발전과 국제자본이동간의 관계를 밝혀, 이 둘 간의 간극을 채우는 시도를 하고자 한다.

제3장 정보통신기술(ICT)과 외국인간접투자(FPI)

본 연구는 2001년～2009년의 기간에 걸쳐 FPI 투자국과 투자대상국 상위 10개국간 투자 결정요인에 관한 분석을 진행하였다. 확장된 중력모형을 사용하여 분석하였으며, 인터넷 관련변수를 정보변수로 설정하였다. 양 국가의 FPI 보유량을 종속변수로 하여, 고정효과 패널분석(fixed effect panel analysis)을 중심으로, 시간불변변수(time invariant variable)를 추정하기 위한 FEVD(Fixed-Effects Vector Decomposition) 모형과 확률효과 모형(random effect model)을 도입하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 모든 경우에서 자본이동은 거리와 음의 값을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 초고속인터넷 가입자 수로 구성된 정보변수는 모든 분석에서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 양 국가의 인터넷 인프라가 잘 갖추어져 있을수록 FPI 투자가 증가할 것이라는 예측을 할 수 있다. 그리고 자본시장지수의 경우, 전반적으로 금융시장 발전 수준이 높을수록 자본이동의 유인이 높아진다는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이를 통해 자본이동의 자국편향이나 지역편향에 대해 해당 국가의 인터넷 환경이 자본이동의 제약조건 중 하나인 정보비대칭을 감소시킬 수 있음을 보여준다.

제4장 정보통신기술(ICT)과 외국인직접투자(FDI)

본 연구는 정보통신기술 발전이 FDI 유입에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하기 위하여 전 세계 199개국을 대상으로 1970년부터 2010년까지 장기간에 걸친 국가별 FDI 결정요인을 분석하였다. 효율적인 추정을 위해 고정효과 모형(fixed effect model)과 하우즈만-테일러 모형(Hausman-Taylor Model)을 도입하여 분석하였다. 또한, ICT 인프라 변수의 내생성 문제를 고려하여 도구변수를 이용한 2단계 최소자승법(two-stage least squares) 추정방식을 이용하였다. Choi(2003)는 인터넷 발전이 ①정보탐색비용의 감소로 인한 진입장벽 완화, ②재고비용 감소, ③정부부패 감소의 세가지 측면에서 생산성을 증가시키고, 생산성 증대가 FDI 유입 증가로 연결된다는 논리를 제시하였다. 본 연구의 실증분석 결과 정보통신기술의 대리변수로 설정한 초고속 인터넷 가입자, 인터넷 사용자, 이동전화 가입자, 전화 가입자의 결과가 모두 FDI 유입과 유의한 정(+)의 관계를 갖는다는 사실을 확인할 수 있었다. 분석대상을 소득․대륙으로 분류하여 분석한 결과, 각 소득․대륙별 집단에 따라 FDI에 대한 정보통신기술의 영향에 다소 차이가 있음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 통해 일부지역과 시기에 한정되어 있는 선행연구의 결론을 일반화 할 수 있는 계기를 마련하였으며, 다양한 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.

끝으로 5장에서는 각 장의 결과를 요약하고 본 논문의 한계와 보완점, 그리고 향후 연구과제를 제시하였다.

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