소비자 수용모델 및 AHP로 고찰한 스마트그리드 기술사업화 생태계 모형연구 : 스마트그리드 제주실증사업 분석을 중심으로
저자
발행사항
서울 : 고려대학교 그린스쿨대학원, 2017
학위논문사항
학위논문(박사)-- 고려대학교 그린스쿨대학원: 에너지·환경정책기술학과 2017. 2
발행연도
2017
작성언어
한국어
주제어
발행국(도시)
서울
기타서명
A study of commercialization and ecology model of smart grids technologies with consumer adoption model and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) : with a focus on the analysis of Jeju smart grids demonstration project
형태사항
x, 198 p. : 도표 ; 26 cm
일반주기명
지도교수: 이재승, 장길수
부록수록
참고문헌: p. 186-193
DOI식별코드
소장기관
Every country has its own energy policy, different industrial maturity levels and public acceptance of new energy policies. In particular, energy policies vary in each country and they affect smart grids policies and strategies as well as its demonstration R&D results. The energy policy environment is changing as Paris Climate Change Agreement (2015.12) requires “historic, durable and ambitious” GHG emission reduction. In this context, a smart grids is emerging fast as a means of reducing GHG emissions and starting new businesses in electricity areas. Major leading countries such as USA, and Japan in smart grids areas, launched large-scale smart grids demonstration projects around 2010.
Smart grids is regarded as the representative of new energy industries in Korea because it has the potential to transform the entire conventional power industry to a new industry, applying ICT(Information and Communication Technologies) into the power grids. In this context, the Republic of Korea also launched a large-scale smart grids demonstration project, called “Jeju smart grids demonstration project (2009-2013).” Regarding the project, there have been a range of different ideas on whether they have been successful. On the other hand, the ideas were not based on the objective comparison of the results of the major leading countries, because there have been little such researches.
This study started from the questions “How can we get the right lessons from “Jeju smart grids demonstration project” through application of more proved and scientific theories?” and “Can we measure what is more valuable among the criteria of the decision for commercialization of smart grids technologies, using mathematical science.
First, this study compared the results of the smart grid demonstration projects of major leading countries such as U.S.A, Japan and Korea. This study found the difference among three countries’ smart grid polices. Japan made efforts to utilize smart grids to better use PV panels which had been deployed in almost 3 decades. U.S.A tried to utilize smart grids to modernize electric power grids and to boost then shrinking economy. Korea focused mainly its efforts to find promising business models to make smart grids as a new industry.
Second, this study used Rogers’ ‘Diffusion of Innovation Model’ and ‘Innovation-Decision Model’ to find whether Jeju Smart Grids Demonstration Project properly chose the place, particularly people in the place by analyzing group’s characteristics, who participated in Jeju smart grids demonstration projects and resided in the area where the project demonstrated. This study found that group’s innovation level in the place was not included in innovator’s group or early adopter’s group according to analysis based on Rogers’ and Kotler’innovation adoption process. Rather it was similar to laggard group’s characteristics. It tells that they did not seriously consider group’s innovation level when they planned and launched the project.
Third, there are several factors that affect the transfer and commercialization of smart grids technologies and it is important to find where to place more priority with limited resources. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been widely used around the world to provide comprehensive and rational solutions in a wide variety of decision situations. This study applied AHP to the decision framework regarding comparison among a wide variety of commercialization factors of smart grids technologies. Through a literature review and with advice from the expert’s group, I made the comparison matrices which the goal is commercialization of smart grids technologies and its first criteria has ① technology factor, ② law and regulation factor, ③ business strategy factor. The sub-criteria under the technology factor are R&D ability, R&D infrastructure and interoperability among technologies. The sub-criteria under the law and regulation factor are ④ the law and regulation related to electricity market and price, ⑤ tax incentives and incentive for investment, ⑥ consistency of smart grids-supportive policy. Finally, the sub-criteria under the business strategy factor are ⑦ business model, ⑧ search for the company for technology transfer, ⑨ technology promotion and public acceptance. I performed pair comparison among them by AHP and found that the “law and regulation related to electricity market and price” is most prioritized and “consistency of smart grids-supportive policy” is followed second. It indicates that the smart grids market is still highly dependent on the government policy so that the government should consider the policy issue seriously when it plans and launches smart grids-related demonstration project for commercialization.
Finally, this study tried to set up the most reliable commercialization model of smart grids technology with the AHP’s results. I devided the smart grid commercialization ecology into four domains such as R&D domain, law & regulation domain, market domain and customer domain. In other preceding researches, the domain of law and regulation was not dealt seriously, but the AHP’s result showed its importance, which the domain of law and regulation covers not only the market domain, but also customer domain, as smart grids-related law and regulation can create market and customers as well.
This study presents the importance of government’s policy in commercializing smart grids technologies because its market is still highly affected by the policy. And it also emphasizes on importance of participated group’s and consumer’s innovation level in terms of diffusing new and innovative technologies effectively. In this context, when the government plan 2nd and 3rd big smart grid-related or power-related projects, they should try to establish and implement market-friendly and commercialization-supportive policies at the project planning stage. And project proponents should keep in mind that participated group’s and consumer’s innovation level can affect the diffusion of innovative technologies seriously.
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