Measuring business cycles
저자 :
Burns, Arthur F
,Mitchell, Wesley C
,Mitchell, Wesley C
발행사항 :
New York : National Bureau of economic research, 1946
발행연도 :
1946
작성언어 :
영어
주제어 :
Business cycles
DDC : 338.54 판사항(23)
자료형태 : 도서
발행국(도시) : 미국
서명/저자사항 : Measuring business cycles / A. F. Burns, W. C.Mitchell.
형태사항 : xxvii, 560 p. : ill. ; 30 cm.
총서사항 : National Bureau of Economic Research ; No. 2 Studies in business cycles ; No. 2.
일반주기명 : Includes bibliographical references and index.
소장기관 :
- 경북대학교 중앙도서관
- 국립중앙도서관
- 부경대학교 도서관
- 부산대학교 중앙도서관
- 서강대학교 도서관
- 서울대학교 중앙도서관
- 연세대학교 학술문화처 도서관
- 영남대학교 도서관
- 제주대학교 중앙도서관
- 한국학중앙연구원 한국학도서관
- 한국해양대학교 도서관
- 소장기관 전체보기
서지정보 열기
-
목차
-
CONTENTS
-
PREFACE = ⅶ
-
CHAPTER 1 WORKING PLANS = 3 - 22
-
Ⅰ The Point of Departure = 3
-
Ⅱ Questions Raised by the Definition = 5
-
Ⅲ 'Inductive Verification' of Business-cycle Hypotheses = 8
-
Ⅳ The Data Needed for Observing Cyclical Behavior = 10
-
Ⅴ Requirements that Technique Must Meet = 11
-
Ⅵ The Symbols Used in Observing Business Cycles = 14
-
Ⅶ Range Covered by the Observations = 17
-
Ⅷ The Program as a Whole = 21
-
CHAPTER 2 PRELIMINARY SKETCH OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS = 23 - 36
-
Ⅰ Basic Features of the Analysis = 23
-
Ⅱ Reference Dates, Reference Cycles and Specific Cycles = 24
-
Ⅲ Timing, Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 26
-
Ⅳ Measures of Secular Movements = 28
-
Ⅴ Cyclical Patterns = 29
-
Ⅵ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 31
-
Ⅶ Averages and Average Deviations = 33
-
Ⅷ Charts of Cyclical Patterns = 34
-
Ⅸ Comparison with Customary Techniques = 36
-
CHAPTER 3 PLAN OF TREATING SECULAR, SEASONAL AND RANDOM MOVEMENTS = 37 - 55
-
Ⅰ The 'Cycle of Experience' as the Unit of Analysis = 37
-
Ⅱ Limitations of the Technique = 40
-
Ⅲ Need to Economize Effort = 41
-
Ⅳ Treatment of Seasonal Variations = 43
-
Appendix : Notes on the Elimination of Seasonal Variations' = 51
-
CHAPTER 4 DATING SPECIFIC AND BUSINESS CYCLES = 56 - 114
-
Ⅰ Dating Specific Cycles = 56
-
Ⅱ Diffusion of Specific Cycles = 66
-
Ⅲ Different Methods of Deriving a Reference Scale = 71
-
Ⅳ A Tentative Schedule of Reference Dates = 76
-
Ⅴ Difficulties in Setting Reference Dates Illustrated = 81
-
Ⅵ Dependability of the Reference Dates = 94
-
CHAPTER 5 THE BASIC MEASURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 115 - 202
-
Ⅰ Positive and Inverted Specific Cycles = 115
-
Ⅱ Timing of Specific Cycles = 116
-
Ⅲ Duration of Specific Cycles = 128
-
Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 131
-
Ⅴ Measures of Secular Movements = 141
-
Ⅵ Specific-cycle Patterns = 144
-
Ⅶ Reference-cycle Patterns = 160
-
Ⅷ Relation between Reference - and Specific-cycle Patterns = 170
-
Ⅸ Conformity to Business Cycles : Behavior during Fixed Periods = 176
-
Ⅹ Conformity to Business Cycles : Timing Differences Recognized = 185
-
XI Analysis of Quarterly and Annual Data = 197
-
CHAPTER 6 EFFECTS OF THE TIME UNIT ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 203 - 269
-
Ⅰ The Problem of This Chapter = 203
-
Ⅱ Why the Time Unit Matters = 204
-
Ⅲ The Direction of Movements in Time Series = 210
-
Ⅳ The Number of Specific Cycles = 215
-
Ⅴ Duration of Specific Cycles = 220
-
Ⅵ Timing of Specific Cycles = 223
-
Ⅶ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Annual Data = 229
-
Ⅷ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Quarterly Data = 241
-
Ⅸ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 245
-
X Specific-cycle Patterns = 246
-
XI Different Forms of Annual Data = 252
-
XII Reference-cycle Measures = 261
-
XIII Conclusions = 268
-
CHAPTER 7 EFFECTS OF TREND ADJUSTMENTS ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 270 - 309
-
Ⅰ Materials Used in the Tests = 271
-
Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 273
-
Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 276
-
Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 280
-
Ⅴ Reference-cycle Measures = 294
-
Ⅵ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 299
-
Ⅶ The Time Unit and Trend Adjustments = 302
-
Ⅷ Conclusions = 307
-
CHAPTER 8 EFFECTS OF SMOOTHING ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 310 - 369
-
Ⅰ Range of the Tests = 310
-
Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 312
-
Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 316
-
Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 326
-
Ⅴ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 335
-
Ⅵ Specific-cycle Patterns = 336
-
Ⅶ Reference-cycle Patterns = 349
-
Ⅷ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 357
-
Ⅸ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 361
-
Ⅹ Uncertainties in Identifying Specific Cycles = 363
-
XI Conclusions = 367
-
CHAPTER 9 ROLE OF AVERAGES IN THE ANALYSIS = 370 - 383
-
Ⅰ Variability of Cyclical Behavior = 370
-
Ⅱ Function of Averages and Average Deviations = 380
-
Ⅲ Problems Raised by Averages = 382
-
CHAPTER 10 SECULAR AND DISCONTINUOUS CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 384 - 417
-
Ⅰ Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 384
-
Ⅱ Reference-cycle Patterns = 393
-
Ⅲ Other Cyclical Measures = 398
-
Ⅳ Duration and Amplitude of Business Cycles = 401
-
Ⅴ Business Cycles and Economic Stages = 403
-
Ⅵ Business Cycles before and after 1914 = 406
-
Ⅶ Conclusions from Tests = 412
-
Ⅷ Preparation for Later Work = 413
-
CHAPTER 11 CYCLICAL CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 418 - 465
-
Ⅰ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Building = 418
-
Ⅱ Long Cycles as Deviations from Trends = 427
-
Ⅲ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Prices = 431
-
Ⅳ Long Cycles as Triplets of Business Cycles = 440
-
Ⅴ Long Cycles Marked Off by Booms = 448
-
Ⅵ Long Cycles Marked Off by Severe Depressions = 455
-
Ⅶ Conclusions and Plans for Later Work = 464
-
CHAPTER 12 STABLE AND IRREGULAR FEATURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 466 - 508
-
Ⅰ Individual Features of Successive Cycles = 466
-
Ⅱ Stable Features of Successive Cycles = 474
-
Ⅲ Influence of Extreme Items on Averages = 491
-
Ⅳ Causal Interpretation of Averages = 503
-
Ⅴ Test of Consilience among the Results = 506
-
APPENDICES
-
A Division of Reference Cycles into Stages = 509
-
B Some Supporting Data = 517
-
C Sources of Data = 540
-
INDEX = 551
-
List of Tables
-
Table
-
1 Series Classified According to the Process Represented, Country, and the Time Unit = 20
-
2 Periods Covered by American and Foreign Series = 20
-
3 Number of Business Cycles Covered by American and Foreign Series = 21
-
4 Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1933 = 25
-
5 Sample of Table S1 : Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 26
-
6 Sample of Table S2 : Amplitude of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 27
-
7 Sample of Table S3 : Secular Movements, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 28
-
8 Sample of Table S4 : Specific-cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 29
-
9 Sample of Table S5 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 30
-
10 Sample of Table R1 : Reference-cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1933 = 30
-
11 Sample of Table R2 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Reference Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1933 = 31
-
12 Sample of Table R3 : Conformity to Business Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1933 = 32
-
13 Bituminous Coal Production, United States, 1905 - 1939 = 59
-
14 Chronology of Specific Cycles in Employment, Ten Manufacturing Industries, United States, 1919 - 1938 = 68
-
15 Dates of Cyclical Peaks and Troughs, Successive Versions of Three Indexes of 'Industrial Production', United States, 1919 - 1938 = 75
-
16 Reference Dates and Durations of Business Cycles in Four Countries = 78
-
17 Number of Monthly or Quarterly American Series Available at Decennial Dates since 1860 = 82
-
18 Short-term Fluctuations around the Cyclical Turns of 1937 and 1938, 23 American Series = 86
-
19 Sequence of Cyclical Turns in the 1937 Recession and the 1938 Revival, 40 American Series = 88
-
20 Production, Employment and Prices in Three Countries, 1914 - 1918 = 91
-
이 자료를 본 이용자가 본 자료
-
나만을 위한 추천 자료