Measuring business cycles
저자 :
Burns, Arthur F
,Mitchell, Wesley C
,Mitchell, Wesley C
발행사항 :
New York : National Bureau of economic research, 1946
발행연도 :
1946
작성언어 :
영어
주제어 :
Business cycles
DDC : 338.54 판사항(23)
자료형태 : 도서
발행국(도시) : 미국
서명/저자사항 : Measuring business cycles / A. F. Burns, W. C.Mitchell.
형태사항 : xxvii, 560 p. : ill. ; 30 cm.
총서사항 : National Bureau of Economic Research ; No. 2 Studies in business cycles ; No. 2.
일반주기명 : Includes bibliographical references and index.
소장기관 :
- 경북대학교 중앙도서관
- 국립중앙도서관
- 부경대학교 도서관
- 부산대학교 중앙도서관
- 서강대학교 도서관
- 서울대학교 중앙도서관
- 연세대학교 학술문화처 도서관
- 영남대학교 도서관
- 제주대학교 중앙도서관
- 한국학중앙연구원 한국학도서관
- 한국해양대학교 도서관
- 소장기관 전체보기
서지정보 열기
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목차
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CONTENTS
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PREFACE = ⅶ
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CHAPTER 1 WORKING PLANS = 3 - 22
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Ⅰ The Point of Departure = 3
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Ⅱ Questions Raised by the Definition = 5
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Ⅲ 'Inductive Verification' of Business－cycle Hypotheses = 8
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Ⅳ The Data Needed for Observing Cyclical Behavior = 10
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Ⅴ Requirements that Technique Must Meet = 11
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Ⅵ The Symbols Used in Observing Business Cycles = 14
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Ⅶ Range Covered by the Observations = 17
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Ⅷ The Program as a Whole = 21
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CHAPTER 2 PRELIMINARY SKETCH OF THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS = 23 - 36
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Ⅰ Basic Features of the Analysis = 23
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Ⅱ Reference Dates, Reference Cycles and Specific Cycles = 24
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Ⅲ Timing, Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 26
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Ⅳ Measures of Secular Movements = 28
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Ⅴ Cyclical Patterns = 29
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Ⅵ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 31
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Ⅶ Averages and Average Deviations = 33
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Ⅷ Charts of Cyclical Patterns = 34
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Ⅸ Comparison with Customary Techniques = 36
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CHAPTER 3 PLAN OF TREATING SECULAR, SEASONAL AND RANDOM MOVEMENTS = 37 - 55
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Ⅰ The 'Cycle of Experience' as the Unit of Analysis = 37
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Ⅱ Limitations of the Technique = 40
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Ⅲ Need to Economize Effort = 41
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Ⅳ Treatment of Seasonal Variations = 43
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Appendix : Notes on the Elimination of Seasonal Variations' = 51
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CHAPTER 4 DATING SPECIFIC AND BUSINESS CYCLES = 56 - 114
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Ⅰ Dating Specific Cycles = 56
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Ⅱ Diffusion of Specific Cycles = 66
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Ⅲ Different Methods of Deriving a Reference Scale = 71
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Ⅳ A Tentative Schedule of Reference Dates = 76
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Ⅴ Difficulties in Setting Reference Dates Illustrated = 81
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Ⅵ Dependability of the Reference Dates = 94
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CHAPTER 5 THE BASIC MEASURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 115 - 202
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Ⅰ Positive and Inverted Specific Cycles = 115
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Ⅱ Timing of Specific Cycles = 116
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Ⅲ Duration of Specific Cycles = 128
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Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 131
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Ⅴ Measures of Secular Movements = 141
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Ⅵ Specific－cycle Patterns = 144
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Ⅶ Reference－cycle Patterns = 160
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Ⅷ Relation between Reference － and Specific－cycle Patterns = 170
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Ⅸ Conformity to Business Cycles : Behavior during Fixed Periods = 176
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Ⅹ Conformity to Business Cycles : Timing Differences Recognized = 185
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XI Analysis of Quarterly and Annual Data = 197
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CHAPTER 6 EFFECTS OF THE TIME UNIT ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 203 - 269
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Ⅰ The Problem of This Chapter = 203
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Ⅱ Why the Time Unit Matters = 204
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Ⅲ The Direction of Movements in Time Series = 210
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Ⅳ The Number of Specific Cycles = 215
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Ⅴ Duration of Specific Cycles = 220
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Ⅵ Timing of Specific Cycles = 223
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Ⅶ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Annual Data = 229
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Ⅷ Amplitude of Specific Cycles in Quarterly Data = 241
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Ⅸ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 245
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X Specific－cycle Patterns = 246
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XI Different Forms of Annual Data = 252
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XII Reference－cycle Measures = 261
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XIII Conclusions = 268
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CHAPTER 7 EFFECTS OF TREND ADJUSTMENTS ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 270 - 309
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Ⅰ Materials Used in the Tests = 271
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Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 273
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Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 276
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Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 280
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Ⅴ Reference－cycle Measures = 294
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Ⅵ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 299
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Ⅶ The Time Unit and Trend Adjustments = 302
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Ⅷ Conclusions = 307
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CHAPTER 8 EFFECTS OF SMOOTHING ON CYCLICAL MEASURES = 310 - 369
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Ⅰ Range of the Tests = 310
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Ⅱ The Number of Specific Cycles = 312
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Ⅲ Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles = 316
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Ⅳ Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 326
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Ⅴ The Secular Component of Specific Cycles = 335
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Ⅵ Specific－cycle Patterns = 336
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Ⅶ Reference－cycle Patterns = 349
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Ⅷ Measures of Conformity to Business Cycles = 357
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Ⅸ Variability of Cyclical Measures = 361
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Ⅹ Uncertainties in Identifying Specific Cycles = 363
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XI Conclusions = 367
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CHAPTER 9 ROLE OF AVERAGES IN THE ANALYSIS = 370 - 383
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Ⅰ Variability of Cyclical Behavior = 370
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Ⅱ Function of Averages and Average Deviations = 380
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Ⅲ Problems Raised by Averages = 382
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CHAPTER 10 SECULAR AND DISCONTINUOUS CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 384 - 417
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Ⅰ Duration and Amplitude of Specific Cycles = 384
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Ⅱ Reference－cycle Patterns = 393
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Ⅲ Other Cyclical Measures = 398
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Ⅳ Duration and Amplitude of Business Cycles = 401
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Ⅴ Business Cycles and Economic Stages = 403
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Ⅵ Business Cycles before and after 1914 = 406
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Ⅶ Conclusions from Tests = 412
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Ⅷ Preparation for Later Work = 413
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CHAPTER 11 CYCLICAL CHANGES IN CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 418 - 465
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Ⅰ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Building = 418
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Ⅱ Long Cycles as Deviations from Trends = 427
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Ⅲ Long Cycles Marked Off by Long Waves in Prices = 431
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Ⅳ Long Cycles as Triplets of Business Cycles = 440
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Ⅴ Long Cycles Marked Off by Booms = 448
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Ⅵ Long Cycles Marked Off by Severe Depressions = 455
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Ⅶ Conclusions and Plans for Later Work = 464
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CHAPTER 12 STABLE AND IRREGULAR FEATURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR = 466 - 508
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Ⅰ Individual Features of Successive Cycles = 466
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Ⅱ Stable Features of Successive Cycles = 474
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Ⅲ Influence of Extreme Items on Averages = 491
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Ⅳ Causal Interpretation of Averages = 503
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Ⅴ Test of Consilience among the Results = 506
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APPENDICES
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A Division of Reference Cycles into Stages = 509
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B Some Supporting Data = 517
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C Sources of Data = 540
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INDEX = 551
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List of Tables
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Table
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1 Series Classified According to the Process Represented, Country, and the Time Unit = 20
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2 Periods Covered by American and Foreign Series = 20
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3 Number of Business Cycles Covered by American and Foreign Series = 21
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4 Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 25
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5 Sample of Table S1 : Timing and Duration of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 26
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6 Sample of Table S2 : Amplitude of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 27
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7 Sample of Table S3 : Secular Movements, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 28
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8 Sample of Table S4 : Specific－cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1932 = 29
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9 Sample of Table S5 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Specific Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 - 1932 = 30
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10 Sample of Table R1 : Reference－cycle Patterns, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 30
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11 Sample of Table R2 : Rate of Change from Stage to Stage of Reference Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 31
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12 Sample of Table R3 : Conformity to Business Cycles, Coke Production, United States, 1914 － 1933 = 32
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13 Bituminous Coal Production, United States, 1905 － 1939 = 59
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14 Chronology of Specific Cycles in Employment, Ten Manufacturing Industries, United States, 1919 － 1938 = 68
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15 Dates of Cyclical Peaks and Troughs, Successive Versions of Three Indexes of 'Industrial Production', United States, 1919 － 1938 = 75
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16 Reference Dates and Durations of Business Cycles in Four Countries = 78
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17 Number of Monthly or Quarterly American Series Available at Decennial Dates since 1860 = 82
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18 Short－term Fluctuations around the Cyclical Turns of 1937 and 1938, 23 American Series = 86
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19 Sequence of Cyclical Turns in the 1937 Recession and the 1938 Revival, 40 American Series = 88
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20 Production, Employment and Prices in Three Countries, 1914 － 1918 = 91
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