본 논문에서는 병역정책신뢰에 대한 이론적 배경과 병역정책의 개념, 문제상황을 살펴본 후 병역정책신뢰에 영향을 미치는 요인을 체계적으로 규명하여 인과모형을 작성하고 이를 토대로 경험적 분석을 시도함으로써 향후 병역정책수립시 신뢰도제고 방향을 모색하는데 목적을 두었다.
본 논문에서는 먼저 신뢰에 대한 개념 정의와 함께 신뢰를 구성하고 있는 개념적 구성요소에 대해 정리하면서 신뢰의 유사개념인 협력(cooperation), 믿음(confidence), 예측 가능성(predicatabitity) 등과의 구별을 논의하였다. 또한 신뢰의 연구관점을 개인적 기대로서의 신뢰, 대인관계로서의 신뢰, 경제적 거래 관점에서의 신뢰, 사회적 실체로서의 신뢰로 구분하여 살펴봄과 동시에 신뢰에 대한 연구경향을 Mayer등이 제시한 신뢰의 일반모형과 다양한 유형의 신뢰와 발전에 초점을 둔 Zuker의 연구, Lewicki ＆ Bunker의 연구, Luhman의 연구를 구분하여 정리하였다. 이러한 신뢰에 대한 일반적 이론에 대한 논의와 사회심리학에서 논의된 태도이론을 토대로 하여 정책신뢰성에 대한 개념을 정의하면서 정책신뢰성과 관련된 선행연구를 검토하였다. 선행연구는 정치신뢰에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 인과관계란 측면에서 모델화 작업을 시도한 Co1e의 모형을 살펴본 후 경험적 연구에 있어서의 정책신뢰성의 영향요인을 검토하였다.
병역정책에 대한 이론 부분은 지금까지 병역정책전반에 대한 학문적 연구가 미비된 점을 고려하여 연구자의 병무행정 경험과 병무청, 국방연구원 등에서 발간된 자료를 바탕으로 병역의무에 대한 개념정의를 포함 병역정책의 성격규명, 선병정책과 의무부과정책에 대한 논의, 병역정책의 문제상황에 대해 논의하였다.
신뢰에 대한 일반이론과 선행연구의 검토, 병역정책에 대한 문제상황 등을 토대로 하여 병역정책신뢰성의 영향요인을 제시하고 인과모형과 가설을 설정한 후 경험적 연구를 하였으며 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다.
첫째, ANOVA분석결과 인구학적 배경요인중 성별에 있어서는 1%유의수준에서 병역정책신뢰 수준에 차이를 보이고 있지 않으나 5%유의수준에서는 병역정책신뢰도에 있어서 차이를 보이고, 여자가 남자보다 병역정책신뢰도가 다소 높게 나타났다. 연령에 있어서는 30대 이하와 40대 이상에서 뚜렷한 차이를 보이고 있으며 40대 이상에서 병역정책신뢰도가 상대적으로 높게 나타나고 있다.
사회경제적 요인중 소득의 경우, 소득의 차이에 따른 병역정책신뢰수준의 차이를 보이고 있지 않으나 교육수준에 있어서는 대학이상의 학력소지자에 비해서 고등학교 졸업이하의 학력 소지자(무학 제외)가 병역정책신뢰도가 높게 나타나고 있다.
또한 직업에 있어서는 가정주부, 농·어업 종사자, 자영업자가 학생, 노동, 기능직 종사자, 일반 사무직, 전문직에 비해 병역정책신뢰도가 높게 나타나고 있고 병역 이행형태에 있어서는 직업군인(직업군인이었거나 직업군인 복무자), 군복무 면제자가 현역(의무병으로 복무하였거나 복무중인자), 방위병 복무자, 대체복무자에 비해서 병역정책신뢰도가 높게 나타나고 있다.
둘째, 개인심리적 요인 즉, 타인신뢰, 상대적 박탈감, 국가관과 병역정책신뢰와의 관계는 단순 상관관계 분석결과 타인신뢰, 국가관은 병역정책신뢰와 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났고, 상대적 박탈감의 경우는 부(-)의 관계로 나타났으며, 이는 회귀분석결과 통계적으로 유의성 있는 것으로 나타났다.
셋째, 정책내용 요인 즉. 병역의무의 형평성, 병역의무의 공정성과 병역정책신뢰와의 관계는 단순 상관관계 분석결과 매우 높게 나타났고 회귀분석 결과 병역정책신뢰에 미치는 영향력이 큰 것으로 나타났으며 통계적으로 유의성이 있다. 이는 병역정책 수립에 있어서 중요한 정책적 함의를 가지고 있다.
또한 공직자 요인 즉, 공무원의 부패, 공무원의 능력, 공복의식과 병역정책신뢰와의 관계는 단순 상관관계 분석결과 비교적 높은 상관관계를 보이고 있으나 회귀분석결과 병역정책신뢰에 미치는 영향력이 큰 것으로 나타났으며, 통계적으로 유의성이 있다.
정책홍보 요인 즉, 언론보도의 공정성, 언론보도의 적시성의 경우 병역정책신뢰와의 관계는 단순 상관관계분석에서 비교적 높은 상관관계를 보이고 있고 회귀분석 결과도 병역정책신뢰에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있다.
넷째, 정보화 수준요인 즉, 행정정보화 수준, 개인정보화 수준과 병역정책신뢰와의 관계는 단순상관관계 분석결과 행정정보화 수준은 낮은 상관관계를, 개인정보화 수준은 부(-)의 상관관계로 나타났으며 회귀분석결과에서도 행정정보화 수준요인은 병역정책신뢰도에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나고 있으나 개인정보화 수준요인의 경우는 부(-)의 관계를 나타나고 있다.
다섯째, 본 경험적 연구에서 독립변수로 설정된 개인심리적 요인, 정책체계 요인, 정보화 수준요인이 병역정책신뢰도에 미치는 영향력의 정도는 회귀분석 결과 개별모형에 의한 영향력은 개인심리적 요인은 13.97%, 정책체계 요인은 39.99%, 정보화 수준요인은 14.09%의 영향력을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 이러한 결과는 전체모형의 회귀분석 결과에서도 입증되고 있다. 이러한 경험적 연구결과와 병역정책변수의 제한을 토대로 한 병역정책 신뢰성제고 방향을 요약하면 다음과 같다.
첫째, 병역의무의 공정성 확보를 위한 실질적인 병역면제 2심제도 운영을 위해 중앙신체검사소 조직을 병무청 본청에 두어야 한다.
둘째, 병역의무의 형평성제고와 병역자원 수급을 고려 대체복무제도는 축소 또는 폐지되어야 한다.
셋째, Internet을 통한 행정정보 공개제도와 대민서비스가 확대 시행되어야 한다.

The contemporary administration is being closely tied to peoples' daily life by the expansion in function, enhancement of quality and consolidation of power in an executive government. The increasing importance in the administration, trust in the administration is directly related with the quality of life. However, the government of Korea, which is characterized by an insufficient trust in the administration, faces a crisis of trust in all areas including politics, society, economy and culture etc. This phenomena result in various types of conflicts in the interest group, social differentiation, region and labor affair etc.
No government or policy has ever been received an indefinite trust by the people, however, the trust is a key factor for the government itself and a successful execution of the policy. Peoples' dissatisfaction or mistrust in a degree plays a positive role as a catalytic of the innovation in the administrative systems, however, it is impossible to achieve the object or effective execution of the policy without the peoples' trusts in policy of the government. Furthermore, the separation of the people from the administration obstructs cooperative relations, which might result in the negation of the governments' authority or the loss of the national identity.
Reflecting on the importance of the trust of the government or its policy of people in the sense of regulation and practice, the empirical research has been conducted on the trust in the government and policy. In case of the United States, the Vietnamese War and the Watergate in 70s invoked a serious discussion on the trust in the government and policy; researchers paid attention to the trust in the government and administrative policy, because the variety of the administrative actions, whose operating area is being extended, cannot be successfully achieved without supports of the people with trust in the government and policy. In case of Korea, the mistrust of the people on the government and policy characterizes contemporary politics and administration via the tragic political history: the Japanese colony period and unorthodox administrations with military regime.
Even though the mistrust in the government and policy has been well-known problem and the corresponding troubles have been experienced in the administrative execution, the problem of the trust in policy was recognized after 80s in Korea. While the main concerns of the research treated problems on the trust in the government (Lee, J.-H 1982, Yoon, S.-C 1985, Lee, S.-W 1993), few of them treated problems on the trust in policy (Moon T-H, 1987, Shim, J.-B 1990). Afterwards, the study on the trust in policy has been carried out in a practical application, however, most of them are focused on the application to the general policies, i.e., agriculture and residency etc. Application of the trust to a special policy, for example, national security or military manpower administration has not yet been sufficiently explored without investigations on the determinant factors of the trust in the policy.
The application of the trust in policy to the military manpower administration is a timely and important research, because the military manpower administration suffers most aggressive innovation after the inauguration of President Kim, Dae-Jung. Especially, following two political issues enforced a renovation in the military manpower administration: one was the history of military service obligation of the presidential candidate and his family in 1997 presidential campaign in Korea, and the other was a military manpower administration scandal by WO. Won in May 1998. Considering the innovations of the military manpower administration with the inauguration of President Kim, Dae-Jung, it is necessary to measure the level of the trust in the policy. Furthermore, a methodology to enhance the trust in the policy, especially on the military manpower administration, will be discussed in this thesis. Therefore, following problems will be carefully treated and discussed in this thesis.
ⅰ) Identification of the determinant factors on the military manpower administration policy
ⅱ) Evaluation of the coherent relations among the factors on the trust in the military manpower administration policy
ⅲ) Methodology to enhance the trust in the military manpower administration policy
II. Theoretical Aspects of the Trust in Policy
In the United States, the trust in policy has been regarded as an equivalency to the trust in politics. Scholars and researchers in politics agree that the trust in policy is a type of the political attitude defined by a positive or negative attitude against the policy if it meets the expectation of the people from the draft to the execution (Lee, H.-S, 1999). The political attitude is composed of cognitive, affective and behavioral factors. Therefore, also the attitude can be defined as follows: "Attitude is a metal representation of a variety of social or physical objects, and it is acquired by experience thereafter affects on a behavioral patterns."　Consequently, the political attitude has been regarded as a part of a political culture. Especially, the political culture is identified as a psychological orientation with regard to a political object by Almond, Massialas, Eaton. Moreover, the political attitude can be categorized by political trust, political efficacy and political participation. Among the rest, the political trust has been studied in a negative aspect such as political distrust or political cynicism rather than a positive one. Miller insists that the political trust is mainly comprised by a cognitive evaluation of the political systems product.
In summary, the trust in policy can be defined by a kind of peoples' political attitude on the policy. More specifically, the trust in policy is a positive attitude on the policy if the policy satisfies the general criterion or expectation of the people in draft and execution. In addition, based on the concept of the trust by Meyer, which is widely accepted for the definition of the trust, the trust in policy can be defined by; a trust in policy is a psychological attitude so that the people can willingly accept it even with a corresponding risk independent of the capability of monitoring or regulating the policy　.
In the study of the trust in the military manpower administration policy, it is important to define the military manpower administration policy as a type of the trust object. Definition of the policy varies depending on individual scholars, however, the policy can be defined as an activity or business provided by a government, in general. A policy will be continuously assessed from draft to closure, therefore, the assessment of the trust in policy are being utilized as a type of the preliminary study in administration. Therefore, the trust in the military manpower administration is postulated as a psychological attitude to the policy of the military manpower administration; the attitude is a comparative system which is composed by emotional and evaluative reactions. In this thesis, the factors of the attitude are categorized by cognitive, emotional and evaluative factors. Then the positive (or negative) evaluation of the fairness in the military manpower administration is to be conceptualized by the trust (or distrust) of the military manpower administration with emphasis on the emotional and evaluative factors. The cognitive factor is to be regarded as a prior factor in the evaluation of confirmation and decision. Consequently, the following definition of the trust in the military manpower administration is to be used in this thesis. "Peoples' emotional and evaluative inclination on the military manpower administration is to determine whether military manpower administration satisfies peoples' ethnic standard and functional performance expectation."
III. Factors of the Trust in Military Manpower Policy
In this thesis, based on the previous study the population, socio-economics and individual psychology factors are chosen for analysis. In addition, the factor of the accessibility to the information has been added considering the features of administrative information system in the military manpower administration and government of Korea. Those factors are summarized in terms of variables and measurement indices in Table 1.
The factor of the accessibility to the information has been added, because the online web services provided by the government are being settled down as a primary tool to deliver information and service to the public. The distribution and expansion of the public information via web contributes the enhancement of the trust in the administration.
◁표 삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요)
Numerous survey results in the United States show that the realization of the e-government (electronic service by government) enhances the trust in government of the people. It is a noticeable fact that the satisfaction or trust in the e-government is proportional to the accessibility or experience to the information: 35% of the electronic commerce system users show the trust in the government while 25% of the non-electronic commerce systems show the trust in the government. Recently the realization of the electronic government is becoming a key factor of the enhancement of the trust in the administration. (Kim, B. U. 2000).
With a policy and increased budget of administrative information system, the performance and its assessment of the information systems are being focused. In the United States the performance of the website provided by the governments are assessed by various types of factors such as accuracy of contents, accessibility & simplicity of the information. Likewise, in Korea, the assessment and evaluation of the information systems of the government are started in 1997 and the Ministry of Information and Communication published "Information System Assessment Manual" to provide a standard in the assessment. In the "Information System Assessment Manual"　by the Ministry of Information and Communication, the assessment is mainly composed by the assessment of the efficiency and the assessment of the execution. The assessment of the efficiency is evaluated in terms of following factors: simplicity in usage, enhancement of service, satisfaction & application by user, efficiency in internal operation, renovation in system and efficiency in information system. The assessment of the execution is composed of business and system aspects where business plan, business process, business management and budget management are to be considered as the factors for the evaluation. The accessibility to the information has not yet been counted as a variable in the study of trust in policy, however, it is directly related to the trust in policy due to the contemporary trends of the administration which is characterized by participation of the people in the administration and transparency of the administration via the information system. Therefore, the accessibility to the information is assumed to be related with the trust in military manpower administration and it is assigned as a variable in this thesis. Reflecting on the recommendation in the "Information System Assessment Manual"　by the Ministry of Information and Communication, the accessibility to the information and personal experience to the information are assigned as variables. Detailed descriptions of variables and measure indices are provided in Table 1.
◁표 삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요)
In this thesis, the main objective is to determine the correlation between the trust in policy and factors by measuring the level of the trust in military manpower administration policy and identifying the factors that affect the trust in military manpower administration policy. Furthermore, the contributions of the individual factors are to be identified in a quantitative way so that a methodology to enhance the trust in the military manpower administration. A schematic diagram is provided in following figure for a description of the system model in terms of determinant factors described above.
IV. Conclusion
In this thesis, theoretical background, concept of the military manpower administration and the state of the art are carefully treated, which are used to establish a cause and effect system model in terms of the coherent factors on the trust in the military manpower administration policy. The objective of this thesis is to provide a methodology for the enhancement of the trust in the military manpower administration based on the empirical analysis.
Based on the general theory, the investigation of preceding research and the state of the art, the relevant factors for the trust in military manpower administration policy has been identified. With the system modeling of the factors with the corresponding assumptions, the empirical analysis has been achieved. The result can be summarized as follows:
1. There is no significant difference on the trust in the military manpower administration in terms of gender, which is a subclass member of factor of population, in 1% significance level while a small difference in female with higher trust level than male for the military manpower administration in 5% significance level. In terms of age, there exists a significant difference between under age 30 and over age 40, specifically the trust level in the military manpower administration is high over age 40. Concerning on the socio-economic factor, there is no significant difference in personal income on the trust in the military manpower administration policy. However, the educational background influences on the trust in the military manpower administration policy so that the lower level educational (below with high school diploma) background group with higher level of trust in the military manpower administration policy in comparison with the higher level of the educational background (over college degree). In terms of occupation, housewife, farmer, small business groups show higher trust level in the trust in the military manpower administration policy than student, laborer, engineer, salary man and white color groups.
2. The relation between the trust in the military manpower administration policy and the personal psychological factors are almost negligible; based on the analysis of correlation with respect to the factors of mutual trust, relative deprivation and patriotism.
3. The contents of the policy factor is closely related with the trust in the military manpower administration policy. Therefore, the contents of the policy factor holds significant implication in the determination of the policy with trust. In addition, the factor of administrative public officers in terms of corruption, capability and spirit of service are closely related with the trust in the military manpower administration based on the simple correlation analysis. It is also shown to be effective by the regressive analysis within the statistical alert. The publicity of policy factor in terms of fairness and timing shows comparatively strong correlation with the trust in policy in the simple correlation analysis and the regressive analysis.
4. The accessibility to the information shows low correlation to the trust in the policy of the military manpower administration. In the simple correlation analysis of the factors to the trust in policy of the military manpower administration, the information system in the administration shows low correlation and the personal accessibility to the information shows negative correlation. In the regressive analysis of the factors to the trust in policy of the military manpower administration, the administrative information system shows positive correlation while the personal accessibility to the information shows negative correlation.
5. Based on the empirical study in this thesis by the regressive analysis, the contribution of the independent variable factors to the system model of the trust in the military manpower administration are evaluated as follows: 13.97% of the psychological factor, 39.99% of the policy system factor and 14.09% of the accessibility to the information factor, respectively.
Based on the empirical study and the result of the analysis, following steps are need to be taken for the enhancement of the trust in the military manpower administration policy.
1. CPDC (Central Physical Draft Committee) is to be founded for the review of the exemption of the military service, which guarantees fairness and transparency in the physical draft.
2. Alternative military service obligation or reserve conscription must be reduced or abolished depending on supply and demand in military manpower to provide fairness and equality in the military service obligation.
3. The public release and service of the military manpower administration information is to be expanded via the Internet systems.