사건 및 이슈화가 대통령 후보 지지율의 변화에 미친 영향 : 제15대, 16대 대통령 선거 중심으로 = (An) Analysis of the effects on the candidate support rate through the events an.d issues of the presidential elections : Focused on the 15th and 16th presidential elections
The aims of this study are to clarify how they affected on the candidate support rate the events, issues of events and policies through the 15th and 16th presidential elections.
Under such aims of the study, this dissertation sets such concrete aims of the study as follows by the forms of questions.
First, What events, issues of the events and policies developed through the 15th and 16th presidential elections.
Second, What events affected on the candidate support rate directly during the absence of issues between candidates.
Third, what events did the candidates create the issues intentionally and how the issues affected on the candidates support rate.
Fourth, which one of the politic promises that the candidates suggested during election became issues and how it affected on the candidates support rate.
The lastly, which matters of such events, issues of the events and policies that affected on the candidates support rate-for example, candidate qualification, diplomatic policy-had more effects on it.
1. The conclusion of the study
The results and meanings that show through this study of the 15th and 16th presidential elections are as follows.
First, the events, issues of the events and policies had many effects on the candidate support rate. For short term, the effects of the events and eventual issues are greater than those of the politic issues.
Second, in the views of long term, it is considered that the effects of the politic issues on the candidate support rate are accumulatively greater than those of the events and eventual issues. The reason is that, even though the electorate hardly know the politic pledges, they know somewhat those that they have interests in or relate with their interests, thus the positive and negative response to the pledges continues on the table without long term, -change.
Third, events connect with issues. In the events, there are issues included or potential. If the issue presents the public pledge, it adds issue premium. But, if the issue presents the event, it has even more effects.
Fourth, in voting behavior theory, the main theory that acts like the factor as affect on the candidate's personality theory. In additions, reward and punishment theory and strategic voting theory had effects on the candidate support rate. The candidate personality theory is mainly applied to many cases that each candidate's personality factor such as the candidate qualification, leadership, morality became issues and presented. And the negative strategy is mainly used that attacks the candidate's absurdities and weak points than the merits. In case of the reward and punishment theory's application, there were many cases that the punishment voting psychology of the retrospective perspective caused by the absurdities and failed policies of the party in power had affected on than the perspective of the reward about the satisfactory fulfillment for the policies of the party in power.
Fifth, as the frequencies of the TV debates or the contents improve, the potentials that the candidates's policies affect on the voting increase, the importance of the policies is focused on. Specially in TV debates, the group debates effected on the candidates support rate than the separate debates that is probable to compare with each candidate relatively.
Sixth, it is considered that the introduction of the electorate participating pre-election fulfil a role as systematic equipment that the candidates who usually are lower in the recognition of popularity rate can notify themselves to the electorate. In the 16th election, it is a good example that the candidate No Moo-hyun. Who was far lower in the recognition or popularity rate could show his ability and vision in future through the mechanism so-called 'the electorate participating pre-election', as a result became the president by the choice of major electors.
Seventh, in voting strategy, there were many cases that the negative strategies were chosen more than the positive strategies and were more efficient in the 15th election. But in the 16th election, there was such a case that the exposure issue without showing the basis resulted in the contrary, brought about backfire effect in case of the negative strategy. In additions, that of positive strategy had great effects on, gradually seemed to increase, and the importance of strategies was assured in the presidential election.
Eighth, in case of politic issue, for the 15th election didn't show the difference among the candidates' stands of issues, it didn't affect on the candidate support rate. Also, in application of the politic pledge theory, they could be certified many application cases of the public opinion theory of electoral competition that the candidates would change their issue stands according to the public opinion and there were many application cases of the party cleavage theory that the candidates adhere to their politic stands which they suggested from the beginning, build up the public opinion.
Ninth, the fact is certified that the issue raised during election term become changed. They are certified and they can be applied to establish the strategy of the issues. The extension of the issues by the concretization and the variation of the issues, the conversion of the issues that the substance of the issues become to change, the seizure of the issues that the owner of the issues is altered.
Tenth, there were Bandwagon effect and Underdog effect as the consequence of the candidate support rate which research agency announce during election to the electorate.
Lastly, there were many cases that the events of issues of the events resulted from the situations of the inside and outside of the country.
2. Politic Stands.
First, the most of the studies about the election in Korea have treated the composition of the election like the localism and the political party, whereas they hardly threat about the process of the election.
Second, they showed that the influence of the politic issues to the candidate support rate has increased.
Third, in case of the election-strategy, compared to the 15th election, the 16th election showed that the effect of the negative strategy which was the main strategy before had decreased, and the positive strategy by the suggestion of the policies had increased.
Fourth, even though the events and the issues of the events were the main factors which had many effects on the candidate support rate, there were many difficulties caused by the lack of the previous studies about this.
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