한국중소도시의 성장유형과 성장요인에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Growth Patterns and Factors of Smaii & Medium-Sized Cities in Korea
This study is aimed at both investigating the general analytical variables affecting urban growth from existing theroretical literatures, and identifying the dominant factors and their changes for the growth of small and medium - sized cities in Korea and their characteristics by growth patterns. Another attempt is also made to formulate the mathematical relations between population growth and the factors of urban growth. The results of this study are expected to provide a few suggestions in planning development strategies of small and medium-sized cities in Korea.
The analytical period of the case study is 10 years(1995 to 2005), and the number of the case study is 65 small & medium-sized cities in 1995 and 75 small & medium-sized cities in 2005. The methods for this study include discriminant analysis, correlation analysis and multiple linear regression model for comparative analysis.
The results of this study can be summarized as follows :
First, the classification standards of small & medium-sized level in an urban hierachy may vary among countries, depending on their patterns of urban settlement, level of development, economic structure, population density, etc. However, the most convenient and frequently used criterion for identifying small & medium-sized cities is population size, because the city size is proportional to the functional complexity. In this study, small & medium-sized city is defined as a city, where population is more than 50,000 except Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Kwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan and Suwon.
Second, the identified urban growth factors that would be used for the analysis of growth mechanism of small & medium-sized cities in Korea include:
· Population - urban population size: POP
· Age - ratio of age group between 15 and 44 to the total population: AGE
· Education - ratio of college-bred population to the total population: EDU
· Centrality - degree of public and social service facilities: CEN
· Manufacturing - number of employees in manufacturing per 1,000 persons: MACC
· Services - number of employees in service business per 1,000 persons: SACC
· Hi Tech-industry - number of employees in Hi Tech-industry per 1,000 persons: HACC
· Exports - degree of basic economic activities in manufacturing and service sectors: EXP
· Interrelation - potentiality of interrelation between cities: INT
· Assistance - degree of subsidies from the centrl government : ASS
Third, small & medium-sized cities are classified into three patterns by criterion of the annual average rate of population growth : high city, middle city and low city. High city is a city above the annual average rate of the whole small & medium-sized cities's population growth. Middle city is a city below the annual average rate of the whole small & medium-sized cities's population growth but above the annual average rate of the whole nation??s population growth. Low city is a city below the annual average rate of the whole nation's population growth.
There are 21 high cities, 13 middle cities and 31 low cities among 65 small & medium-sized cities in 1995, while there are 27 high cities, 6 middle cities and 42 low cities among 75 small & medium-sized cities in 2005.
Fourth, the whole small & medium-sized cities's characteristics are analyzed in terms of population, economic and social aspects by growth patterns. The results of comparative analysis of small & medium-sized cities' characteristics by growth patterns during 10 years(1995 to 2005) are as follows:
According to the results of analysis of population characteristics, the growth rate of population of high cities decreased from 7.32% to 4.88%. The growth rate of population of middle cities decreased from 1.33% to 0.92%. The growth rate of population of low cities decreased from -2.17% to -1.11%. The POP of high cities, middle cities and low cities increased to 8.1%, 12.6% and 30.4%, respectively. The AGE of high cities, middle cities and low cities decreased by 8.7%, 5.2% and 10.6%, respectively.
Based on the results of analysis of social aspects, The EDU of high cities, middle cities and low cities increased to 58.3%, 97.3% and 95.0%, respectively. The CEN of high cities, middle cities and low cities decreased by 17.8%, 21.7% and 13.4%, respectively. The INT of high cities decreased by 22.4% and the INT of middle cities and low cities increased to 694% and 137%, respectively.
Another analysis on economic aspects shows that the MACC of high cities increased to 6.0% and the MACC of middle cities and low cities decreased by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively. The SACC of high cities, middle cities and low cities increased to 24.7%, 6.2% and 17.3%, respectively. The HACC of high cities decreased by 8.5% and the HACC of middle cities and low cities increased to 185% and 11.7%, respectively. The EXP of high cities and middle cities decreased by 22.3% and 34.4%, respectively, and the EXP of low cities increased to 26.9%. The ASS of high cities and middle cities decreased by 30.6% and 41.1%, respectively, and the ASS of low cities increased to 11.1%.
Fifth, the major factors affecting the growth of small & medium-sized cities in Korea are POP, AGE, MACC, HACC, INT and ASS in 1995, and are POP, AGE, MACC, HACC and INT in 2005, based on the discriminant analysis
Sixth, the correlation analysis indicates that the major factors positively correlated with the rate of population growth are POP, AGE, EDU and INT in 1995, and AGE and MACC in 2005. And the major factors positively correlated with the rate of population growth are AGE, MACC and HACC during the period of 1995 and 2005.
Seventh, according to the results of multiple linear regression analysis by growth patterns, the model to investigate the growth factors of small & medium-sized cities is as follows:
i) 1995
-high city & middle city : Yi = -2.355 + 0.989 EDUi - 0.039 SACCi
-low city : Yi = -14.791 + 0.262 AGEi
ii) 2005
-high city & middle city : Yi = -4.915 + 0.312 EDUi + 0.026 MACCi
-low city : Yi = -8.958 + 0.225 AGEi - 0.106 EDUi
iii) Between 1995 and 2005
-high city & middle city : Yi = -0.106 + 0.037 MACCi
-low city : Yi = -9.475 + 0.176 AGEi + 0.063 HACCi +0.116 EXPi -1.544E-09 INTi , where
Yi = the annual average population growth rate of city i
AGEi = ratio of age group between 15 and 44 to the total population of city i in 1995, 2005 or 10 years(1995 to 2005)
EDUi = ratio of college-bred population to the total population
MACCi = number of employees in manufacturing per 1,000 persons of city i in 1995, 2005 or 10 years(1995 to 2005)
SACCi = number of employees in service sector per 1,000 persons of city i in 1995, 2005 or 10 years(1995 to 2005)
HACCi = number of employees in Hi tech-industry per 1,000 persons
EXPi = degree of basic economic activities in manufacturing and service sectors
INTi = potentiality of interrelation between cities
The major factors affecting the growth of high city & middle city in Korea were EDU and SACC in 1995, EDU and MACC in 2005, and MACC during the period of 1995 and 2005. And the major factors affecting the growth of low city were AGE in 1995 , AGE and EDU in 2005, and AGE, HACC, EXP, INT during the period of 1995 and 2005.
Eighth, in conclusion, major findings by discriminant analysis, correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis are as follows: the general factors affecting the growth of small & medium-sized cities in Korea are POP, AGE, EDU, MACC, SACC, HACC, EXP, INT and ASS. The main factors affecting the growth of small & medium-sized cities in Korea are POP, AGE, EDU, MACC, HACC and INT among them. Above all, AGE, MACC, HACC and INT are the leading factors among them.
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