반중수사가 후보자 평가에 미치는 영향: 미국의 사례를 중심으로 = How Anti-China Rhetoric Shapes Candidate Evaluation

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 미국, 남미, 유럽 등 전 세계 여러 선거에서 반중 캠페인 메시지의 사용이 급증하고 있다.
중국이 국내 일자리를 빼앗고, 코로나19를 확산시켰다는 이유로 자국의 주적으로 묘사하거나 나아가 상대 후보가 중국 공산당과 연계되어 있다고 비난하기도 한다. 유권자는 중국을 적대시하고 그위협을 강조하는 선거 메시지에 어떻게 반응할 것인가. 이러한 반중 수사의 사용은 후보자의 평가에어떤 영향을 미칠 것인가. 본 연구는 반중 수사가 외부에 대한 위협 인식을 고조시키고 내집단 편애현상을 부추겨 유권자를 동원할 가능성이 있는 한편, 부정적 결과에 대한 책임 전가로 보여져 오히려 후보의 역량 평가와 지지도에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상한다. 이러한 이론적 예측 검증을 위해 본 연구는 미국 시민들을 대상으로 한 설문실험을 실시하여 반중 수사가 유권자의 후보자평가에 미치는 영향을 살펴본다. 설문실험 결과는 반중 캠페인 수사를 사용하는 것이 미국인들의중국에 대한 경각심을 고조시키는 한편, 선거 전략으로서는 유효성을 갖지 못함을 보여준다. 오늘날이민자, 소수 인종 등 외집단을 적대시하고 그 위협을 강조하는 선거 전략이 만연하나, 본 연구의결과는 이러한 전략이 후보에게 결코 유리하지 않으며 해당 외집단에 대한 부정적인 여론만을 증폭시킴을 보여준다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The use of anti-China campaign messages has rapidly increased in many recent elections around the world. Political candidates have blatantly targeted China for stealing domestic jobs, meddling elections, and spreading Covid-19, and accusing the opponent of having ties with the Chinese Communist Party. Can candidates win the minds of voters by blaming China? How does exposure to anti-China rhetoric change voter evaluation of the candidate? This study examines the effects of anti-China rhetoric on voters' candidate evaluation using a survey experiment in the US. My findings show that voters do not favor their co-partisan politicians who rely on anti-China campaign rhetoric while exposure to such rhetoric increased perceived threat posed by China. These findings suggest that politicians' increasing reliance on anti-China rhetoric can fuel hostility toward China without generating meaningful electoral benefits.

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