러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 러시아 천연가스 수출 방향의 변화와 전망 = Changes in Russia-Europe Natural Gas Export Strategic Direction after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to analyze the changes in Russia-Europe natural gas relations after Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The following changes are observed after the invasion in 2022.
Russia's effort to use its natural gas as a political weapon could not effectively disrupt EU's untied energy policy. By adopting REPowerEU plan, EU cleary shows its united effort to reduce energy dependence on Russian fossil fuel. Although export volume of Russian LNG to Europe increased in 2022, total export volume of natural gas decreased.
Asia, especially North East Asia, is the most promising or olny remained alternative natural gas market for Russia considering factor that geographical proximity and its demands. However, China is already importing substantial amount of russian natural gas and it is unclear that China has extra demand for importing additional Russian natural gas. Also, China has shown support for Russia whenever Russia faces difficulties due to conflict with the West, Russia may become dependent to China.
As for Russia energy policy in Northeast Asian natural gas market, it is desirable for Russia to reduce its dependence on China and increase cooperation with South Korea and Japan which has huge LNG demands. However, considering the fact that South Korea and Japan are also importing natural gas under long-term contracts, that they are under pressure to participate in Western sanctions against Russia, and that the US and Australia are accelerating their entry into the LNG market, Russia's sales volume in Northeast Asia cannot be increased dramatically. Thus, it is possible to increase its supply, but it seems difficult to enjoy the position as the leading supplier.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 2022년 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 이후 러시아-유럽 천연가스 관계의 변화를 분석하는 것이다. 2022년 우크라이나 침공 이후 관찰되는 변화는 다음과 같다.
첫째, 천연가스를 정치적 무기로 사용하려는 러시아의 노력은 EU의 단일한 에너지 정책을 방해할 수 없었다. 유럽연합은 REPowerEU Plan을 채택하고 러시아 화석 연료에 대한 에너지 의존도를 줄이기 위한 단합된 노력을 명확히 보여주고 있다.
둘째, 아시아, 특히 동북아시아 시장은 지리적 근접성과 수요를 고려할 때 러시아에게 가장 유망한 대체 시장이 될 수 있다. 다만, 중국은 이미 상당한 양의 러시아산 천연가스를 수입하고 있으며 중국이 러시아산 천연가스를 수입할 추가 수요가 있는지는 불분명하다는 점, 러시아가 중국 의존성이 강화된다는 점에서 러시아에게 낙관적인 상황만을 보장하는 시장이 될 수 없다.
따라서, 동북아 천연가스 시장에서 러시아의 에너지 정책은 중국 종속을 견제하기 위하여 LNG 수요가 많은 한국 일본과의 협력을 강화하는 것이 바람직하다. 하지만 한국과 일본도 장기계약으로 천연가스를 수입하고 있고, 서방의 러시아 제재에 동참하라는 압력을 받고 있으며, 미국과 호주가 LNG 시장 진출에 박차를 가하고 있는 점 등을 감안할 때, 러시아의 동북아 시장 천연가스 판매량이 두드러지게 증가하기는 어려워보인다. 결국 수출물량을 늘리는 것은 가능하지만 과거 유럽천연시장에서 그랬던 것처럼 선도 공급업체로서의 지위를 향유하기는 어려울 것으로 보인다.

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