유라시아경제연합과 실크로드경제벨트의 연결 가능성－경제협력의 기회와 장애－ = The Possibility of Connecting the Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB) with the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU) -Opportunities and Obstacles to Economic Cooperation-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

One of the important purposes of this paper is to examine the possibility of interaction between EAEU and SREB, and Russia and China, and to identify the potential and obstacles to the "connectivity" possibility of these two projects.
Cooperation between EAEU and SREB is not only core condition for the success of the Eurasian Economic Union, but also a key to success of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In particular, there are practical areas between the two initiatives to strengthen infrastructure and trade-related cooperation. The EAEU and the BRI, which are major influence-building projects in Russia and China, are focusing on the economic sector, but there are significant differences between the two. Russia is interested in building an exclusive sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space, and its goal is to strengthen its status as a great power. A key driver of these Russian projects is to achieve political superiority at the regional level. In comparison, China has adopted functionalist logic to focus on tangible economic achievements and increase its influence.
A key element in the success of the cooperation between EAEU and SREB is the recognition of each other’s goals and jurisdictions while maintaining a low level of cooperation and expanding the areas and scope of possible cooperation. The link between EAEU and SREB can be found in Russia’s foreign policy goals and investigations of ‘return to East’, but this cannot be sufficient conditions for their cooperation. To practically advance cooperation between the two projects, it is to separate bilateral cooperation as much as possible from Russia’s foreign policy, which strongly advocates geopolitics. It is still hard to say for sure whether this can be achieved. In any event, the development of transport infrastructure across Eurasia could be severely limited if the cooperation between EAEU and SREB is not achieved.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 윤성학, "중앙아시아와 일대일로: 중국식 개발모델의 한계" 러시아연구소 35 (35): 27-52, 2019
• 2 김옥준, "중국의 일대일로(一帶一路)구상과 정치·경제적 함의: 실크로드 경제벨트 구축을 중심으로" 동아시아국제정치학회 18 (18): 289-308, 2015
• 3 주용식, "중국 ‘일대일로 (一帶一路)’ 에 대한 전망 분석: 동남아시아 지역을 중심으로" 동아시아국제정치학회 18 (18): 169-190, 2015
• 4 이주영, "일대일로와 중국의 對중앙아시아 통상관계 분석" 한중사회과학학회 15 (15): 55-77, 2017
• 5 성원용, "유라시아지역은 어디로:재편성의 동학" 민속원 239-280, 2017
• 6 김영진, "유라시아의 비서구 지역통합 프로젝트: 유라시아경제연합(EAEU)과 일대일로(BRI)" 한국슬라브․유라시아학회 34 (34): 177-210, 2019
• 7 김영진, "유라시아경제연합: 지역통합의 현실과 전망" 도서출판 한울 2015
• 8 김영진, "유라시아 지역통합의 동학: 유라시아 지역주의 對 서구지향 지역주의" 한국슬라브․유라시아학회 31 (31): 101-136, 2016
• 9 양평섭, "신흥국의 대중국 경제협력 전략: 일대일로 이니셔티브 대응을 중심으로" 대외경제정책연구원 2018
• 10 Луконин, С. А, "Экономический пояс Шелкового пути: риски и возмо жности для России" (4) : 18-29, 2015
• 11 Винокуров, Е, "Шелковый путь 2.0: зачем России нов ые железные дороги" ЕБР
• 12 Путин, В, "Новый интеграционный проект для Евразии — будущее, кот орое рождается сегодня"
• 13 Мешкова, Т. А, "Евразийская экономическая интеграция: перспект ивы раз вития и стратегические задачи для России" Высшая школа экономики 2019
• 14 Мансуров, Т, "ЕврАзЭС: от интеграционного сотрудничества к Еврази йскому экономическому союзу" (10) : 2014
• 15 ЕАЭС, "Договор о Евразийском экономическом союзе"
• 16 "Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (Beijing, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, with State Council authorization"
• 17 Kaczmarski, M, "Two Ways of Influence-building: The Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road Initiative" 69 (69): 1027-1046, 2017
• 18 Zhavoronkov, S, "Two Lean Years: Russia’s Budget for 2018–2020" The Russia File
• 19 Lehmacher, W, "The New Silk Road – Idea and Concept" ISPSW 2015
• 20 Dragneva, R, "The Eurasian Project and Europe: Regional Discontinuities and Politics" Palgrave 135-152, 2015
• 21 Indeo, F., "The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: the impact of the Sino-Russian geopolitical strategies in the Eurasia region" Maastricht School of Management 2016
• 22 Indeo, F, "The Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt: the impact of the Sino-Russian geopolitical strategies in the Eurasia region" Analytical Media «Eurasian Studies»
• 23 Vinokurov, E, "The Belt and Road Initiative in Northern Eurasia:Current, State, Barriers to Development, Interests, and Policies" Analytical Media «Eurasian Studies»
• 24 BP, "Statistical Review of World Energy" British Petroleum 2018
• 25 Bordachev, T, "Russia’s ‘Pivot’ to Eurasia" European Council on Foreign Relations 25-31, 2014
• 26 Liik, K, "Russia’s ‘Pivot’ to Eurasia" European Council on Foreign Relations 5-16, 2014
• 27 Muzalevsky, R, "Russian-Led Customs Union Intensifies Sino-Russian Rivalry in Central Asia" 8 (8): 2011
• 28 Libman, A, "Russian Power Politics and the Eurasian Economic Union:The Real and the Imagined" 2 (2): 81-103, 2017
• 29 O’Neal, M, "Russia in WTO: Interests, Policy Autonomy, and Deliberations" 55 (55): 404-421, 2014
• 30 Godehardt, N, "No End of History: A Chinese Alternative Concept of International Order?" SWP 2016
• 31 Hu, W, "New Fund Initiated for Silk Roads"
• 32 Xi, J, "New Asian Security Concept for New Progress in Security Cooperation" Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
• 33 Libman, A., "Linking the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union: Mission Impossible?" 6 (6): 41-53, 2016
• 34 Hu, B, "Human Capital, Innovation and Technological Change" ANU Press 409-429, 2017
• 35 Sukhankin, S, "From ‘Turn to the East’ to ‘Greater Eurasia’: Russia’s Abortive Search for a Far East Strategy" 15 (15): 2018
• 36 Popescu, N, "Eurasian Union: The Real, the Imaginary and the Likely" Institute for Security Studies 2014
• 37 "Essential Guide to Understanding Belt and Road Initiative" Xinhua
• 38 Li, L, "Decision Time for Central Asia: Russia or China?"
• 39 Li, Z, "Connecting the BRI with Eurasian Economic Union is strategic choice of China, Russia" CGTN
• 40 Russian Federation, "Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation)"
• 41 Deng, Y, "China: The Post-Responsible Power" 37 (37): 117-132, 2015
• 42 Huang, Y, "Can the Belt and Road Become a Trap for China?" Center for Global Development