한국 FTA의 성과와 영향에 관한 산업문화적인 연구: 산업부문별 성과 격차와 대외무역법 개정 영향을 중심으로 = A industrial and cultural research on the performance and impact of the Korea FTA: focusing on the performance gap by industry and the impact of the foreign trade act revision

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to understand the impact of Korea's FTA on each industrial sector and suggest policy implications. The tasks to achieve these research objectives are as follows. First, the occurrence of sector-specific conflicts due to differences in FTA performance by industry sector. Second, it concerns changes in factor mobility between industries. Third, can factor mobility between industries alleviate conflicts caused by differences in FTA performance? Lastly, the revision of Korea’s foreign trade law due to the FTA and its impact. To achieve the purpose of this study, previous research literature was reviewed and referred to. The sample period for the Korea FTA results survey was analyzed based on empirical data from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the performance of foreign exports and imports by Korean industrial sector. We referred to data from the sample period of export and import items of Korea's major industries, compared the profit from exports and imports, analyzed the impact on profits, and also measured factor mobility by Korean industrial sector. The results of this study show that, firstly, contrary to expectations at the beginning of the FTA, no industry-specific conflicts emerged, and secondly, factor mobility between industries gradually decreased. Third, Korea's agriculture, which was a concern at the beginning of FAT, was found to have benefited without suffering major damage. Lastly, there were some revisions to the Foreign Trade Act, but the long-term impact was minimal. Based on these results, the implications for policy are that capital mobility between industries is essential, and irregular employment in simple labor needs to be avoided and skilled labor mobility with skills needs to be encouraged.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 김한호 ; 안병일, "한미 FTA 농업부문 협상결과의 주요 시사점과 향후 대책 방향" 농업생명과학연구원 41 (41): 91-100, 2007
• 2 조문희, "한국의 FTA 15년 성과와 정책 시사점" KIEP 19 (19): 2019
• 3 백재승 ; 장은갑 ; 이상휘, "한-미 FTA와 한-중 FTA 전·후 한국의 무역경쟁력 비교 및 결정요인 분석" 한국통상정보학회 20 (20): 107-136, 2018
• 4 박순창, "산업구조에 기반한 지속가능경영 문화: 정유산업을 중심으로" 한국문화산업학회 22 (22): 89-99, 2022
• 5 이현범, "미·중 관세전쟁과 문화적 갈등의 배경과 한국 산업에 미치는 영 향에 관한 연구" 한국문화산업학회 22 (22): 137-148, 2022
• 6 박현민, "문화산업에서의 IT 부문 경제적 파급효과 분석" 한국문화산업학회 19 (19): 1-6, 2019
• 7 박재진, "동태 패널 중력모형을 이용한 한· 중· 일 수입 흐름 분석" 21 (21): 117-143, 2003
• 8 박광서 ; 도광호, "대외무역법 개정 방향에 대한 총론적 의견" 한국무역상무학회 94 : 29-49, 2022
• 9 Ederington, J., "Trade and domestic policy linkage in international agreements" 43 (43): 1347-1367, 2002
• 10 Sohn, C. H., "Trade Structure, FTAs, and Economic Growth" 14 (14): 683-698, 2010
• 11 BBC, "Thousands in South Korea Beef Protest"
• 12 Cheong, I., "The impact of Korea's FTA network on seaborne logistics" 40 (40): 146-160, 2013
• 13 Cooper, W., "The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications" Federal Publications - Key Workplace Documents
• 14 Silva, J. M. C. S., "The Log of Gravity" 88 (88): 641-658, 2006
• 15 Magee, C. S. P., "The Increasing Irrelevance of Trade Diversion" 70 (70): 278-305, 2017
• 16 Anderson, J. E., "The Gravity Model" 3 (3): 133-160, 2011
• 17 World Economic Forum, "The Global Competitiveness Report" 3 : 1-45, 2018
• 18 But, B., "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: The Role of the Recent Financial Crisis" 41 (41): 139-150, 2017
• 19 Decreux, Y., "The Economic Impact of the Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Korea" CEPII 2010
• 20 Lakatos, C., "The EU-Korea FTA : anticipation, trade policy uncertainty and impact" 153 (153): 179-198, 2017
• 21 Fally, T., "Structural Gravity and Fixed Effects" 9 : 76-85, 2015
• 22 Park, J. S., "Sectoral FTA Gains, Conflicts and the Role of Inter-Industry Factor Mobility: Evidence from Korea’s FTAs" Coventry University 18-32, 2019
• 23 Martuscelli, A., "Regional Integration and Poverty: a Review of the Transmission Channels and the Evidence" 33 (33): 431-457, 2019
• 24 Cecchetti, S. G., "Price Index Convergence among United States Cities" 43 (43): 1081-1099, 2002
• 25 Rogowski, R., "Political Cleavages and Changing Exposure to Trade" 81 (81): 1121-1137, 1987
• 26 Samuelson, P. A., "Ohlin Was Right" 73 (73): 365-384, 1971
• 27 Park, J., "Non-regular Workers in South Korea : What is the Problem and How Should It be Solved?" 3 : 82-93, 2017
• 28 Frankel, B. J. A., "Measuring International Capital Mobility : A Review" 82 (82): 197-202, 1992
• 29 Chwieroth, J. M., "Managing and Transforming Policy Stigmas in International Finance: Emerging Markets and Controlling Capital Inflows after the Crisis" 22 (22): 44-76, 2015
• 30 Sims, C. A., "Macroeconomics and Reality" 48 (48): 1-48, 1980
• 31 Gawande, B. K., "Lobbying Competition over Trade Policy" 53 (53): 115-132, 2012
• 32 Cheong, I., "Korea-US FTA: Prospects and analysis" 1999
• 33 Jang, J. H., "Korea-U.S. FTA and Social Conflict" 8 (8): 13-38, 2015
• 34 이병훈 ; 신광영, "Job Mobility of Non-Regular Workers in the Segmented Labor Markets: a Cross-national Comparison of South Korea and Japan" 사회발전연구소 46 (46): 1-23, 2017
• 35 Hiscox, M. J., "International Trade and Political Conflict: Commerce, Coalitions, and Mobility" Princeton University Press 20-32, 2002
• 36 Goldberg, L. S., "International Trade and Factor Mobility: An Empirical Investigation" NBER 1999
• 37 Zhou, Y., "Have Free Trade Agreements Created Trade? Evidence from CEPA" 24 (24): 550-569, 2019
• 38 Felbermayr, G., "Handbook of the Economics of International Migration" 2015
• 39 Baldwin, R., "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations" NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 2006
• 40 Head, K., "Gravity Equations : Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook" 63 : 2013
• 41 Kim, H., "Gradual trade liberalization with sluggish capital movement" 13 (13): 134-151, 2008
• 42 Kim, H., "Gov’t holds second public hearing on Korea-US FTA renegotiation. South Korea: Arirang News"
• 43 이순철, "GMM, 패널, PPML 비교분석을 통한 FTA와 FTA파급효과 분석" 국제지역학회 22 (22): 3-18, 2018
• 44 Kim, I. S., "Firms in Trade and Trade Politics" 22 (22): 399-417, 2019
• 45 Ko, D. W., "Financial Regulatory Reforms in Korea Responding to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis : Are They Following the Global Trends?" 22 (22): 33-55, 2014
• 46 Abiad, A., "Financial Integration, Capital Mobility and Income Convergence" 24 (24): 241-305, 2009
• 47 Eugene Beaulieu, "Factor or Industry Cleavages in Trade Policy? An Empirical Analysis of the Stolper–Samuelson Theorem" Wiley 14 (14): 99-131, 2002
• 48 Markusen, J. R., "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements" 14 (14): 341-356, 1983
• 49 Begg, I., "Factor Mobility and Regional Disparities in the European Union" 11 (11): 96-112, 1995
• 50 조인택, "FTA 체결 전·후 한국 지식집약형 산업의 수출경쟁력 비교 연구 - 한-EU FTA에 대한 중국과 비교를 중심으로 -" 한국통상정보학회 20 (20): 207-227, 2018
• 51 Thorbecke, W., "Explaining House Voting on the North American Free Trade Agreement" 92 (92): 231-242, 1997
• 52 Francois, J., "Economic Impact of a Potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Between the European Union and South Korea" IIDE 1-12, 2007
• 53 Yenokyan, K., "Economic Growth with Trade in Factors of 21 Production" 55 (55): 223-254, 2014
• 54 Ladewig, J. W., "Domestic Influences on International Trade Policy : Factor Mobility in the United States, 1963 to 1992" 60 (60): 69-103, 2006
• 55 Hur, J., "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?" 40 (40): 1283-1294, 2012
• 56 Baier, S. L., "Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members’ International Trade?" 2 : 10-21, 2007
• 57 Lee, B. H., "Divided workers : Social relations between contract and regular workers in a Korean auto company" 18 (18): 507-530, 2004
• 58 Hiscox, M. J., "Class Versus Industry Cleavages - Inter-Industry Factor Mobility and the Politics of Trade" 55 (55): 1-46, 2001
• 59 Chang, K. I., "Border barriers in agricultural trade and the impact of their elimination: Evidence from East Asia" 48 (48): 232-246, 2010
• 60 Choi, B. il,, "Asymmetry in Japan and Korea’s agricultural liberalization in FTA: Domestic trade governance perspective" 24 (24): 505-527, 2011
• 61 OECD, "Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation"