변화하는 북극질서와 한국의 북극항로 전략 = Geopolitical Transformation of the Arctic and South Korea’s Arctic Sea Route Strategy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates how the Arctic order has been reshaped in the wake of the Russia–Ukraine war and analyzes the implications of this transformation for South Korea’s Arctic sea route strategy. It first evaluates the Northern Sea Route (NSR) by integrating physical, economic, and political dimensions, identifying both opportunities—such as shorter sailing distance and time, reduced logistics costs, linkage with energy and resource development, and the emergence of new ice-class shipping and port industries—and challenges, including Russia’s jurisdictional control, Western sanctions on Russia, insufficient infrastructure, unpredictable sea-ice conditions, and tightening international environmental regulations. The paper then compares the Arctic strategies of key players: Russia’s “northern bastion” posture and NSR control, the expansion of the U.S. and NATO’s collective defense architecture into the Arctic, and China’s “Polar Silk Road” initiative as part of the Belt and Road. This comparative analysis demonstrates that the Arctic is evolving into a complex strategic space where economic, security, and environmental interests intersect. Building on this assessment, the study examines South Korea’s current Arctic policies and highlights how, under the Lee Jae-myung administration, the Arctic sea route has become a core agenda item for maritime, industrial, and regional development policy. It proposes four strategic directions: (1) establishing a strong national control tower and legal framework, including a special act to support Arctic route development; (2) creating an integrated governance platform and expanding multilateral and bilateral cooperation networks; (3) upgrading hardware and software infrastructure, such as icebreaking and ice-class vessels, smart ports, and Arctic shipping information platforms; and (4) leading environmental regulations and ensuring sustainable development in line with IMO Polar Code standards. The study ultimately provides a policy blueprint for Korea to move from a passive observer to an active strategic actor in the rapidly changing Arctic.