中国农业服务外包发展与影响研究 = Research on the Development and Influence of Agricultural Services Outsourcing in China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study summarizes the historical development of agricultural service outsourcing in China, and analyzes the relationship between agricultural service outsourcing and agricultural development from the perspectives of agricultural production, agricultural total factor productivity and rural labor market. In terms of agricultural production, the analysis results show that the core of agricultural production is the capital equipment related to agriculture. In addition, the analysis of changes in agricultural total factor productivity through Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) found that since the expansion of agricultural socialization services in 2012, total factor productivity has steadily increased, and the contribution rate of agricultural machinery has exceeded 50%. This is because the government has actively developed agricultural socialization services such as subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and leasing of agricultural machinery under the realistic constraints of fragmented land and small production in China’s rural areas, and increased agricultural productivity through agricultural service outsourcing. Finally, the analysis of the rural labor market shows that agricultural production will increase due to the development of agricultural service outsourcing, but rural labor is gradually being replaced, and the proportion of agricultural income distribution is declining, and the analysis believes that increasing social costs will become an inevitable reality.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

本文从发展历史的角度梳理中国农业服务外包的发展趋势，并且，农业生产、农业总要素生产率与农业劳动力生产等三个典型的宏观特征事实分析农业服务外包与中国农业发展的关系。 分析结果表明，2014之后推动中国农业生产的核心是农业机械动力。因此，在中国小农生产的现实约束下，国家大力推动农业社会化服务的规模，创新农业服务外包的组织形式，让小农通过这种方式参与农业现代化进程，享受农业技术进步的红利，提高农业生产效率。 至于农业TFP的变化，不能仅仅局限于各种生产要素对TFP贡献的绝对值大小，而忽略了传统要素进入农业活动的新路径，忽略了其内涵的扩展以及组织模式的创新带来的新增长点。因此，对于所有农业生产要素的投入都可以对农业发展产生直接影响。同时，也会因农业组织方式的变化强化这种直接影响。事实上，传统农业引入现代生产要素，不仅可以采用直接投资的方式，也可以采用农业服务外包的投资方式，通过代耕代管等多种渠道提升农业生产效率。 随着农业服务外包市场的发育，被替代的农业劳动人口参与农村劳动力市场的约束将变得更为复杂，尽管农业服务外包市场的发育可能促进农业生产力的发展，但它带来的农业生产率的上升可能无法弥补被替代的农业劳动力在劳动力市场上的社会成本的上升。农民工长期在城市打工，返乡后如何防止农业服务外包带来的农业生产率提升出现倒流现象（大量廉价劳动力涌入农业产业链逼退农业服务外包），这或许是中国乡村振兴的难点所在，也是摆在农村劳动力市场面前的一道难题。

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