북한 지전략(地戰略)의 패턴 분석 및 사례 연구 = A Case Study of North Korea’s Geostrategy

국문 초록 (Abstract)

고전적 지정학 그레이트 게임의 체스판이 동북아에 펼쳐졌다. 북한의 지정학적 행보에 대한 분석이 필요한 시점이다. 이에 본 논문은 평양의 전통적 지전략의 유형과 전략적 의미를 사례 연구를 통해 살펴보고, 현시대 김정은 정권의 지정학적 도전을 분석하고자 한다.
자칼 수정주의 국가로서 북한의 지전략은 <동맹 포착>과 <분산 투자>로 대별된다. 동맹 포착은 팽창을 기도하는 대륙강대국들에 편승하여 체제 생존을 보장받고 한반도 현상변경 목표에 동맹국들을 연루시키기 위해 활용되는 전략이다. <사슬 결박>과 <비용 전가> 2유형으로 구사된다.
분산 투자는 약소동맹국의 자율성을 제약할 수 있는 <비대칭 동맹>의 부정적 파급효과를 한반도의 지정학적 가치를 담보로 최소화하는 전략이다. <등거리 줄타기외교>와 <자력갱생 자주노선> 두 양태로 표출되어 왔다.
북한의 지전략 선택패턴을 분석하기 위해 이 논문은 ①한국전 남침을 준비하는 김일성 정권의 대소･대중 동맹 포착; ②군사적 자력갱생의 자주노선 추진과 중･소 분쟁 시기 등거리외교; ③탈냉전기 버티기와 핵무장 강행 정책; ④김정은 정권의 러･북 동맹외교 등에 관한 사례 연구를 진행한다.
신냉전의 경쟁 구도 심화는 평양의 지정학적 위기 비즈니스 운영에 유리한 기회의 창을 열어주었다. 한반도의 안정을 유지하고 평화적 통일의 기반 조성을 위해 동맹 강화 및 공약 유기 방지, 현상 국제질서 유지를 선호하는 해양 자유주의 협력 국가들과의 심층 연대, 의도하지 않은 위기 발생과 확전 방지를 위한 동북아 지정학 게임 참여국들과의 전략대화 플랫폼 구축, 국민적 단합과 국론 결집 노력 등을 제안한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 "허드슨연구소"
• 2 "한국고등교육재단"
• 3 사회과학원 철학연구소, "철학사전" 사회과학출판사 1985
• 4 박형중, "지정학적 북한 분석과 북한 경제 연구" 2024
• 5 이상숙, "중소분쟁 시기 북한과 북베트남의 자주외교 비교" 17 (17): 2018
• 6 "조선중앙통신"
• 7 "조선신보"
• 8 사회과학출판사, "정치사전" 사회과학출판사 1973
• 9 김진하, "북한 외교정책: 정책패턴과 북핵외교 사례분석" 통일연구원 2019
• 10 김진하, "북한 군사적 강압외교(Coercive Diplomacy)의 수정주의(Revisionism)적 기원" 63 (63): 2020
• 11 김진하, "북한 군사 경제 비대화의 원인과 실태" 통일연구원 2018
• 12 김진하, "북한 공세국가의 대외인식 분석 : 과도한 공격적 현실주의(Offensive Realism)와 배타적 민족주의 전략" 27 (27): 2020
• 13 편집부, "북한 ‘조선로동당’대회 주요 문헌집" 돌베개 1988
• 14 김일성, "북조선로동당 제2차대회 당 중앙위원회 사업 결산 보고" 돌베게 1948
• 15 "로동신문"
• 16 "러시아 외무성"
• 17 "랜드연구소"
• 18 "노틸러스연구소"
• 19 김진하, "김정은 정권의 대남정책 : 순환도발전략의 기원 및 권력세습 이후 패턴분석" 57 (57): 2014
• 20 김진하, "김정은 북핵외교 담론분석 : 대미전략을 중심으로" 28 (28): 2021
• 21 "김일성저작선집"
• 22 "김일성동지의 로작색인"
• 23 "국립외교원"
• 24 Person, James F., "‘We Need Help from Outside’: The North Korean Opposition Movement of 1956" Woodrow Wilson International Center 2006
• 25 Christensen, Thomas J., "Worse than a Monolith: Alliance Politics and Problems of Coercive Diplomacy in Asia" Princeton University Press 2011
• 26 "Woodrow Wilson International Center"
• 27 Lee, Chong-Sik, "Witch Hunt among the Guerrillas: The Min-Sheng-T’uan Incident" (26) : 1966
• 28 Armstrong, Charles K., "Why Communism Did Not Collapse: Understanding Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Asia and Europe" Cambridge University Press 2013
• 29 "Wall Street Journal"
• 30 "VOA"
• 31 "US Department of State"
• 32 "US DIA"
• 33 Park, Hyun Ok, "Two Dreams in One Bed: Empire, Social Life, and the Origins of the North Korean Revolution in Manchuria" Duke University Press 2005
• 34 Yarhi-Milo, Keren., "To Arm or to Ally? The Patron’s Dilemma and the Strategic Logic of Arms Transfers and Alliances" 41 (41): 2016
• 35 Parent, Joseph M., "The Wisdom of Retrenchment: America Must Cut Back to Move Forward" 90 (90): 2011
• 36 Friedberg, Aaron L., "The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895-1905" Princeton University Press 2010
• 37 Hart, Liddell, "The Strategy of Indirect Approach" Faber And Faber 1941
• 38 Radchenko, Sergey S., "The Soviet Union and the North Korean Seizure of the USS Pueblo: Evidence from Russian Archives" Woodrow Wilson International Center 2004
• 39 Chen, Jian, "The Sino-Soviet Alliance and China’s Entry into the Korean War" Woodrow Wilson Center 1992
• 40 Snyder, Glenn H., "The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics" 36 (36): 1984
• 41 Kaplan, Robert D., "The Revengy of Geography: What the Map Tells Us about Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate" Random House 2013
• 42 Mead, Walter Russell, "The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of Revisionist Powers" 93 (93): 2014
• 43 Mayborn, William, "The Pivot to Asia: The Persistent Logics of Geopolitics and the Rise of China" 15 (15): 2014
• 44 Lind, Jennifer, "The Once and Future Kim: Succession and Stasis in North Korea" 2010
• 45 Eberstadt, Nicholas, "The North Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe" Transaction 2007
• 46 Mastro, Oriana Skylar, "The Next Tripartite Pact? China, Russia, and North Korea’s New Team Is Not Built to Last" 2024
• 47 Brands, Hal, "The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History" 100 (100): 2021
• 48 Beckley, Michael, "The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of U.S. Defense Pacts" 39 (39): 2015
• 49 Mearsheimer, John J., "The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics" 100 (100): 2021
• 50 Brzenzinski, Zbigniew, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives" Basic Books 1997
• 51 Mackinder, Halford, "The Geographical Pivot of History" 23 (23): 1904
• 52 Mearsheimer, John J., "The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to U.S. Power in Asia" 3 (3): 2010
• 53 Mitchell Lerner, "The Domestic Origins of the Second Korean War: New Evidence from Communist Bloc Archives" 31 (31): 2018
• 54 Cho, Sungmin, "The Crisis in East Asia: Korea or Taiwan?"
• 55 Koga, Kei, "The Concept of “Hedging” Revisited: The Case of Japan’s Foreign Policy Strategy in East Asia’s Power Shift" 20 (20): 2018
• 56 Mearsheimer, John J., "The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy" 96 (96): 2016
• 57 Lanoszka, Alexander, "Tangled up in Rose? Theories of Alliance Entrapment and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War" 39 (39): 2018
• 58 Shen, Zhihua, "Sino-Soviet Relations and the Origins of the Korean War" 2 (2): 2000
• 59 Shen, Zhihua, "Sino-North Korean Conflict and its Resolution during the Korean War" 2003
• 60 Bolger, Daniel P., "Scenes from an Unfinished War: Low-Intensity Conflict in Korea, 1966-1969" U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Combat Studies Institute 1991
• 61 "SPN서울평양뉴스"
• 62 Cooley, Alexander., "Revising Order or Challenging the Balance of Military Power? An Alternative Typology of Revisionist and Status-Quo States" 45 (45): 2019
• 63 Litwak, Robert S., "Regime Change: U.S. Strategy through the Prism of 9/11" Johns Hopkins University Press 2007
• 64 Mearsheimer, John J., "Reckless States and Realism" 23 (23): 2009
• 65 Mearsheimer, John J., "Realism and Restraint" (14) : 2019
• 66 Byman, Daniel, "Pyongyang’s Survival Strategy: Tools of Authoritarian Control in North Korea" 35 (35): 2010
• 67 Posen, Barry R., "Pull Back: The Case for a Less Activist Foreign Policy" 92 (92): 2013
• 68 Bell, Mark S., "Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear-Armed States Behave" Cornell University Press 2021
• 69 Monteiro, Nuno P., "Nuclear Politics: The Strategic Causes of Proliferation" Cambridge University Press 2017
• 70 Solingen, Etel, "Nuclear Logics: Alternative Paths in East Asia and the Middle East" Princeton University Press 2007
• 71 Habib, Benjamin, "North Korea’s Parallel Economies: Systemic Disaggregation Following the Soviet Collapse" 44 (44): 2011
• 72 Schaefer, Bernd, "North Korean “Adventurism” and China’s Long Shadow, 1966-1972" Woodrow Wilson International Center 2004
• 73 Pottinger, Matt., "No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed" 103 (103): 2024
• 74 "New York Times"
• 75 "National Interest"
• 76 Shen, Zhihua, "Mao, Stalin and the Korean War: Trilateral Communist Relations in the 1950s" Routledge 1950
• 77 Chen, Yu-Hua, "Lips and Teeth: China’s Buffer Thinking Toward North Korea" 33 (33): 2024
• 78 Noland, Marcus, "Korea after Kim Jong-il" Institute for International Economics 2004
• 79 "Korea Times"
• 80 Lankov, Andrei N., "Kim Takes Control: The ‘Great Purge’ in North Korea, 1956-1960" 26 (26): 2002
• 81 Lankov, Andrei N., "Kim II Sung’s Campaign against the Soviet Faction in Late 1955 and the Birth of Chuch’e" 23 : 1999
• 82 Posen, Barry R., "Inadvertent Escalation: Conventional War and Nuclear Risks of International Studies" Cornell University Press 1991
• 83 Ciorciari, John D., "Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction" 19 (19): 2019
• 84 "H-Net Reviews"
• 85 "Guardian"
• 86 Cooley, Alexander, "Great Games, Local Rules: The New Great Power Contest in Central Asia" Oxford University Press 2012
• 87 Layne, Christopher, "From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing: America’s Future Grand Strategy" 22 (22): 1997
• 88 Kinne, Brandon J., "Free Riding, Network Effects, and Burden Sharing in Defense Cooperation Networks" 77 (77): 2023
• 89 "Foreign Policy"
• 90 "Eurasia Peace"
• 91 "Economist"
• 92 "Diplomat"
• 93 Bratton, Michael, "Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective" Cambridge University Press 1997
• 94 Lankov, Andrei N., "Crisis in North Korea: The Failure of De-Stalinization, 1956" University of Hawaii Press 2005
• 95 Levitsky, Steven., "Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War" Cambridge University Press 2010
• 96 Gholz, Eugene., "Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation" 21 (21): 1997
• 97 Chen, Jian, "China’s Road to the Korean War" Columbia University Press 1994
• 98 Gill, Bate, "China’s North Korea Policy: Assessing Interests and Influences" United States Institute of Peace 2011
• 99 Nanto, Dick K., "China-North Korea Relations" CRS 2010
• 100 Shen, Zhihua., "China and the Post-War Reconstruction of North Korea, 1953-1961" Woodrow Wilson Center 2012
• 101 Shambaugh, David, "China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term" 26 (26): 2003
• 102 Christensen, Thomas J., "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity" 44 (44): 1990
• 103 Bell, Mark S., "Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy" 40 (40): 2015
• 104 Gerace, Michael P., "Between Mackinder and Spykman: Geopolitics, Containment, and After" 10 (10): 1986
• 105 Schweller, Randall L., "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In" 19 (19): 1994
• 106 Dingman, Roger, "Atomic Diplomacy during the Korean War" 13 (13): 1988
• 107 "Atlantic Council"
• 108 Schelling, Thomas C., "Arms and Influence" Yale University Press 2020
• 109 Morrow, James D., "Arms Versus Allies: Trade-Offs in the Search for Security" 47 (47): 1993
• 110 Brownlee, Jason, "And yet They Persist: Explaining Survival and Transition in Neopatrimonial Regimes" 37 (37): 2002
• 111 Ortagus, Morgan, "An America First Approach to U.S. National Security" America First Press 2024
• 112 Blinken, Antony J., "America’s Strategy of Renewal : Rebuilding Leadership for a New World" 2024
• 113 Kang, David C., "American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the Twenty-First Century" Cambridge University Press 2017
• 114 Morrow, James D., "Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances" 35 (35): 1991
• 115 "38 North"