NEET가 장기 노동성과에 미치는 영향

국문 초록 (Abstract)

우리나라는 외환위기 이후 청년 실업 문제를 체감하고 청년 고용 정책을 확대하였으나 청년 노동시장을 정확하게 분석하지 못해 정책의 실효성이 낮다. 본 논문에서는 청년 실업률이 설명하지 못하는 미취업 청년을 포함하는 ‘니트(Not in Employment, Education or Training, NEET)’ 개념을 도입하여 노동시장에서 청년의 취약성을 설명한다. 니트란 ‘취업하고 있지 않으며 교육이나 직업훈련을 받고 있지도 않은 청년’을 의미한다. 우리나라는 OECD 및 주요국 대비 청년실업률은 낮은 편이지만 니트 비율은 높다. 더욱이 구직 활동도 하지 않는 ‘비구직 니트’는 2000년대 중반 이후 지속해서 증가하고 있어 문제가 되며 관련 연구 및 대안이 필요하다.
니트의 영향에 관한 기존 연구는 니트를 경험한 1~3년 후의 단기간의 노동성과에 머무는 점과 달리, 본 논문은 니트가 장기(7~10년) 노동성과에 미치는 영향을 추정하였다. 자료는 「한국노동패널조사(KLIPS)」의 3~4차, 11~13차 자료를 사용해 7~10년 전에 니트를 경험한 집단과 니트를 경험하지 않은 집단으로 구분하여 임금 차이를 비교하였고, 구직 니트 집단과 비구직 니트 집단 각각 니트 미경험자 집단과의 임금 차이를 비교하였다.
하우스만-테일러 추정(Hausman and Taylor Estimation)을 적용한 패널 선형 임의효과(Panel Linear Random Effect) 분석 방법으로 니트가 장기 노동성과에 미치는 영향을 실증분석한 결과, 비구직 니트 경험자의 임금 수준은 니트 미경험자보다 평균 약 18% 낮게 나타났고 구직 니트의 경우 유의하지 않았다. 니트의 장기간에 걸친 부의 임금효과는 니트 경험에 따른 개인의 노동 생산성 손상과 청년 시기부터 소득 격차 야기 등의 문제를 보여준다. 이 결과에 따라 비구직 니트를 노동시장으로 유입할 자립지원정책을 전개해야 할 필요성을 제기한다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. 서 론 ····················································································································· 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 ···················································································· 1
• 2. 연구의 방법 및 논문 구성 ·········································································· 3
• II. 청년 실업 및 NEET에 관한 선행 연구 ······················································ 5
• 1. 청년 실업이 장·단기 노동성과에 미치는 영향 ······································ 5
• 2. NEET가 노동성과에 미치는 영향 ···························································· 6
• III. NEET의 개념 및 실태 ··················································································· 9
• 1. NEET의 개념 ································································································ 9
• 1) NEET의 기원적 의미 ·············································································· 9
• 2) NEET의 개념 정의 ··············································································· 10
• 2. 국내 NEET의 현황 및 추이 ···································································· 13
• 1) 청년 노동의 국내외 현황 및 추이 ····················································· 13
• 2) 국내 NEET의 현황 및 추이 ······························································· 16
• IV. NEET가 장기 노동성과에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증 분석 ················ 23
• 1. 분석 대상 ····································································································· 23
• 2. 변수의 구성 및 기초통계량 분석 ··························································· 23
• 3. 분석 모형 ····································································································· 35
• 4. 분석 결과 ····································································································· 38
• 1) NEET가 장기 임금에 미치는 영향 ··················································· 38
• 2) NEET 유형에 따른 장기 임금에 미치는 영향 ································ 44
• V. 청년 노동시장 정책에 관한 본 연구의 함의 ··········································· 50
• VI. 요약 및 결론 ································································································· 54
• 참고문헌 ················································································································· 57