스코틀랜드 민족당 (SNP)의 독립 요구 분석: 긴축재정과 중앙정부의 전략적 합의를 중심으로 = An analysis of SNP's call for Scottish independence referendum: emphasis on spending cuts and the central government's strategic consensus

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In October 2015, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called for the second referendum on Scottish independence when the UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23rd’s referendum in 2016. This study aims at analyzing whether Scotland would hold another referendum on its independence. It would not only analyze conditions from the previous referendums in 1979, 1997, and 2014, but would also attempt to understand the possibility of Sturgeon's call for the referendum based on the conditions. Analysis of previous referendums indicate there are two conditions to call for the referendum: spending cuts and the central government's strategic consensus. According to independent variables, it can be said that the UK's EU referendum would bring about the loss of Scottish financial resources.
The possibility of Brixit and spending cuts would result in the increase of SNP's approval rating. On the other side, due to the Conservative party becoming a single party government and reducing the Labour party's competitiveness in Scotland, Scotland was divested of its political attraction. Sturgeon's call fulfilled the first condition while it could not deal with the second. Therefore, it will be rare to call for the second referendum on Scottish independence regarding the UK's EU referendum.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

영국의 EU 탈퇴 국민투표와 관련하여 2015년 10월 스코틀랜드 스터전 정부 수반은스코틀랜드 독립 여부를 묻는 제 2 주민투표를 주장하였다. 본 연구는 2014년 주민투표 실패 이후 제 2 주민투표가 가능한지에 대한 분석을 목적으로 한다. 3차례 선행되었던 주민투표를 분석하여 주민투표가 진행되는 조건을 확인한 후, 이들 변수를 통해 주민투표실행 가능성을 확인한다. 선행된 주민투표는 ‘중앙정부의 긴축재정에 따른 SNP의지지율 증가’ 그리고 ‘중앙정부의 전략적 합의’ 등 2가지 조건을 제시한다. 이들 조건을기초하여 분석한 결과, 캐머런 정부의 긴축 재정과 EU 탈퇴로 예상되는 스코틀랜드의재정 자원 손실은 독립 지향 정당인 SNP의 지지율을 증가시켰다. 반면 2015년 총선이후 보수당의 단독 정부 수립과 스코틀랜드 지역 내 노동당의 경쟁력 감소로 인해 스코틀랜드의 정치적 매력이 희미해졌다. 스터전의 주장은 첫 번째 조건을 충족시켰지만두 번째 전략적 합의 조건은 충족시키지 못하고 있다. 따라서 EU 회원국 탈퇴 연관된 코틀랜드 지역 내 제 2 주민 투표의 가능성은 희박하다고 예상된다.

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