사업보고서 2013-01 : 저탄소 사회로의 이행을 위한 소비행태 조사 및 분석 모형 개발,운용 Ⅲ = A Study of Consumption Behavior and its Model for the Transition to a Low Carbon Society III

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Notwithstanding the importance of changing household consumption behaviors in meeting the national greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set for green growth, there has been insufficient quantitative study on final consumption patterns up until now. In this context, we develop and analyze an economic model linking consumption behaviors, energy use and GHG emissions, and thereby examine policy implications. This is the last year study of a three year plan, and based on the data and economic models suggested in the first(2011) and second year(2012) of the study. As a first step, we analyzed the effects of final consumptions on emissions. Carbon emissions trends of the Korean economy are investigated based on Environmentally-Extended Input Output Analysis and Structural Decomposition Analysis. Direct and embodied emissions by 393 industries and six final demand categories are estimated. In addition, we evaluate the contributions of 11 driving sources to the emissions growth in Korea over the last 8 years. Above all, the export sector has played a significant role in CO2 emissions from the Korean economy. The export is not only the largest demand category accounting for 42.4% of the total emissions in 2011, but also the main driving source, with a share of 69.6%, behind the rapid carbon growth of the Korean economy over the period. This implies that changes in the level of export activity are needed to be taken into account when determining the reduction targets expressed as percentage reduction from the Business-As-Usual(BAU), and evaluating the performance of emission reduction policies. The rapid growth of electricity consumption is also found to be one of the largest factors explaining 12.8% of the entire emissions increase in the Korean economy. This is mainly due to remarkably low electricity prices in Korea compared to other OECD countries. Given the problem of electricity shortage faced by the Korean economy, appropriate electricity demand management is urgently needed in order to avoid the risk of a blackout as well as to mitigate CO2 emissions. Given the international economy structure, we build a global emission inventory including non- CO2 emissions, and estimate GHGs emissions embodied in international trade with either Multi-Region Input Output (MRIO) model or Emissions Embodied in Bilateral Trade (EEBT) approach. It is revealed that the amount of the production-based emissions of the Korean economy exceeds that of the consumption-based emissions. This shows that the Korean economy exports products with high embodied emission intensity and imports goods with relatively low intensity. In addition, consumption behavior of the Korean economy is found to be much higher emission intensive compared to the result of our second-year study where we considered the energy-related CO2 among GHGs. Secondly, this paper examines and assessed energy consumption patterns of household sector. As for electricity consumption, we tried to measure the amount of residential electricity by utilizing smart meter system. The result shows that lightening equipment, refrigerator, TV are the major home electronic appliances. This implies the importance of supplying green products of such main apparatus toward the low-carbon society. This paper also estimates the demand function for electricity and for automotive transportation energy based on micro-data. Subsequently, we examine the economic and environmental effects of electricity price adjustments and the introduction of a low-carbon vehicle incentive. The simulation that changes the current single block price into a three-block pricing structure shows that the welfare of high-income households could be increased as a result, while that of low-income households are projected to decrease. This implies that the electricity price change should be complemented by financial assistance for low-income households. Meanwhile, findings from the simulation of the low-carbon vehicle incentive suggest that the impact of the incentive on GHGs reduction can be enhanced if the policy implemented with increasing fuel taxes concurrently. Lastly, employing a computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate the economic and environmental impact of two policies: one that increases electricity prices to the cost recovery level and the other that imposes a tax on bituminous coal used for power generation. Both policies are found to be effective in the reduction of the carbon emissions from the Korean economy. The effect of the former is calculated to be in the range from -4.95% to -5.04% compared to the BAU scenario for the year of 2020, and that of the latter is from -3.11% to -3.15%. If the two policies are introduced concurrently, the combined effect is estimated to be between -7.30% and -7.41%, which is over the 1/5 level of the national reduction target (-30.0% against the BAU). In addition, we employ SDA for the result, in order to quantitatively assess individual source reducing emissions. Although the input-output structure change is evaluated as the largest effect among the driving sources, the contribution of behavior changes in the household consumption expenditure is also high. When we use EEIO analysis, the impact of household consumption changes on the emission reduction is found to be the most significant among final demand categories. We examine the economic impact of two different revenue recycling methods. The Korean economy generally benefits from a labor tax reduction in terms of real GDP, real GDI, real consumption and real investment, compared to the approach that provides a lump-sum transfer to households. In short, electricity price increases accompanied by a labor tax reduction can achieve ``triple dividend`` by contributing to Korean economic growth and increasing in employment while mitigating a considerable amount of carbon emissions.