KCI등재
한반도 위기사태 유형과 효과적 위기관리 = Effective Crisis Management of Impending Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
저자
발행기관
학술지명
권호사항
발행연도
1999
작성언어
Korean
KDC
390.000
등재정보
KCI등재
자료형태
학술저널
발행기관 URL
수록면
6-42(37쪽)
제공처
소장기관
Will crisis occur in the Korean Peninsula? This is the most frequently raised question nowadays when North Korea is assessed to be likely to collapse under the worsening economic and systemic situations. If North Korea is likely to create situations which might be developed into a crisis where South Korea and the United States should challenge those North Korean provocations, what shape will the crisis take and how will South Korea resolve it effectively? Regarding the plausible courses of actions to be taken by North Korea in the future, two major scenarios are being drawn up: war scenario and crises shot of war.
War scenario is the most frequently envisioned one among all the relevant scenarios regarding North Korea as North Korea is experiencing total system failure nowadays. An all-out war as a result of the North Korean leader's miscalculation is the one that is the most worrisome. It is, of course, controversial whether or not North Korea will actually initiate a war despite its most difficult economic situations. Based on the low possibility of the conventional war, some experts adds that Pyongyang will likely start a war with chemical and biological weapons because chances for North Korea's win in the conventional warfare are so low that Pyongyang has no option but to resort to the unconventional warfare.
In addition, various scenarios for crises short of war are predicted. Among them, the most dangerous is Pyongyang's possible provocation in the process of its internal political turmoil. Pyongyang may attempt to turn its internal crisis into an external opportunity where they can run South Korea's life at risk out of desperation. Although it is not likely that Pyongyang will win the war, they may inflict an enormous damage on Seoul as well as on North Korea, in return. Then, the damage will be too great to recover within a foreseeable future even if Korea is unified under South Korea.
Pyongyang may try to occupy islands in the western sea near the DMZ while insisting on the return of North Koreans who fled from North Korea for the pursuit of food and freedom. During the military engagement, South Korean armed forces may try to counterattack North Korean armed forces not to allow the North to occupy the islands in the western sea. This is another crisis scenario whose consequences are not so trivial as to overlook.
Or the North may attempt to assassinate South Korea's top political figures so as to create a turmoil inside South Korea, while covering up the fact that they have done. Such kind of terrorist act will add to an internal instability inside South Korea, which will in turn, to the North Korean leader, provide an opportunity to the North Korean leader to play South Korea's vulnerability to his favor.
Therefore, it is important for the South Korean Government to prepare against those crisis scenarios beforehand. To deter and prevent a North Korean attack, South Korea will need security alliance with the United States. Thus, bilateral alliance between Seoul and Washington is a requirement even in the post-Cold War unless North Korea explicitly abandons a military option. To augment deterrence, South Korea's cooperation with China is significant at the time when North Korea may attempt to use the military option out of desperation.
To plan against the possibility of crisis short of a major war, cooperative mechanism among South Korea and countries in the region is required In this regard, four party talks to address the lack of security regime on the Korean Peninsula had been proposed and now, await a full operation with North Korea's full participation.
To deal with North Korea's collapse prudently, constructive engagement by South Korea and regional countries is demanded rather than containment. In this process, wise division of labor between South Korea and the United States will bring about a smooth transition of the North as the United States and West Germany had spelled out their sharing of roles and missions to accelerate the German unification cleverly. Indeed, China's cooperation is crucial to holding the transition under a tight control by Seoul and Washington.
To tackle non-conventional crisis scenarios properly, the South Korean Government should mend the fences before the advent of the crises. By reviewing the past record of crisis management thoroughly, it should identify trouble spots deep inside the management system. First of all, the Blue House should strengthen the Situation Room so that it can utilize the sophisticated ability of information gathering and analysis of all relevant agencies to the maximum extent. Second, the Blue House should facilitate policy discussion among heads of relevant government agencies at the event of crisis instead of relying on the United States too much. Above all, the South Korean Government should take initiative to turn the crisis into a major issue between the two Koreas instead of absorbing it as an internal problem as to how effectively the South Korean Government will handle the North Korean provocation within the limits of South Korea. The last point will help South Korea to face the crisis more actively to transform the crisis into an opportunity to take advantage of its strength as opposed to the fatal weaknesses of the North. If that is the case, North Korea will abandon military adventures after all.
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