換率變動의 豫測에 관한 理論的 硏究 : 豫測技法을 中心으로 = (A) theoretical study on forecasting of exchange rate volatility : the point of forecasting model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

At the beginning of 1970, after the International Monetery system was transnsfered from the fixed exchange rate to the floating exchange rate, the instability of the fluctuation on exchange rate was elevated very much with the causes of unbalance of international payments, the extension of the difference on the rate of inflation and the critical situation of the developing countries for the foreign debts. Also for the financial agencies and enterpries, it regendered necessity to practice the tactics of controlling their assets and debts on the world wide dimension due to the increase of instability on the interest, the alleviation of monetary regulations, the growing of high competition between financial agencies, and the change of the structure on money supply and demand in the international money market. In other words, through maximizing the most suitable combination of recured fund and the best distribution of the same, within the level of risk, the enterprise can stand, the profit and stability of foreign assets and liquidity of the same, it is to be intended to maximize the value of the enterprise. For this purpose the international financial manager must carry out the accurate function of prediction on the interest of exchange rate market prices, & etc. of macro economic index.
Based on which the risk of exchange rate must be effectively managed by combining and practicing the appropriate hedging and speculative transactions or that arbitratin.
Though the success or failure on the international fund control depends on the dealing capability of the person in charge and the manager against the danger of the exchange rate, it is so difficult that predicting accurately the direction and degree of the exchange rate is almost impossible. How difficllt it is to predict the exchange rate can be learned by the coprison of inquires by posing questions on the Wall Street Journal which conducted in the months of Jan, and June every year, and also through the example of large siza accidents happening in some monetary agencies for the lack of ability for predicting the exchange rate, through which how important the prediction of ability for exchange rate can be understood.
Accordingly it is difficult for all of those specialists dealing with international monetary system to predict the exact exchange rate, but in order to obtain the best accomplishment, one should try one's best to get the knowledge on it, and to do so, the details are going to be developed concerning around the technique of the exchange rate.
The Details, Chaper 1 is the part of introduction, dealing with bringing forward the subject, purpose of research, method of research. Chapter 2 deals with the theory of exchange rate and the background of exchange rate theory. Chapter 3, the forms of exchange rate and the technique which studied the method of the fundemental analysis technique. Chapter 4, the forms of exchange rate and the technique which studied the method of technical analysis. Chapter 5, the forms of exchange rate and the technique which studied the method of the market psychological analysis technique. Chapter 6, the evaluations of the exchange rate prediction. Chapter 7 was rounded off with the part of conclusion.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차
• 英文秒錄 = iv
• 第1章 序論 = 1
• 第1節 問題의 提起 = 1
• 第2節 硏究의 目的 = 2
• 第3節 硏究의 方法 및 範圍 = 5
• 第2章 換率豫測에 關한 理論的 背景 = 7
• 第1節 換率決定理論 = 7
• 第2節 換率豫測모델의 背景 = 11
• 第3章 基礎的分析에 의한 換率豫測 = 18
• 第1節 基礎的 分析技法의 意味 換率豫測 = 18
• 第2節 換率을 決定하는 各種 經濟指標의 換率에 대한 影響 = 21
• 第4章 技術的分析에 의한 換率豫測 = 32
• 第1節 技術的分析技法의 意味와 發展過程 = 32
• 第2節 市場 支持点과 抵抗点 分析 = 34
• 第3節 技術的分析에 의한 豫測技法率 = 36
• 第5章 市場心理分析技法 = 60
• 第1節 市場心理 分析技法의 發展過程 = 60
• 第2節 市場心理 分析技法의 槪念과 比重 = 62
• 第3節 市場心理의 類型 = 63
• 第4節 換率豫測에 있어 情報의 役割과 特徵 = 67
• 第5節 心理的 分析技法의 長·短點 = 71
• 第6章 換率豫測에 대한 評價와 豫測換率의 有用性과 正確性 = 73
• 第1節 基礎的豫測技法에 대한 評價 = 73
• 第2節 技術的分析技法의 豫測換率에 대한 評價와 有用性 = 76
• 第3節 市場心理 分析方法의 豫測에 관한 評價 = 78
• 第4節 豫測換率의 有用性과 正確性 = 85
• 第7章 要約과 結論 = 89
• 參考文獻 = 93