트럼프-시진핑 시기 미중경쟁: 탈동조화 경제안보전략의 한계와 중간국가의 부상 = US-China Competition during Trump-Xi Jinping Era: Limits of Economic Statecraft of Decoupling and the Rise of In-between Powers

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As the US-China conflict intensified during the Trump-Xi Jinping period, pessimism in US-China relations has prevailed. What is the systemic nature of the US-China competition? This study presents the ‘US-China competition system (G2C System)’ as an analytical concept and analyzes the characteristics of the US-China relationship from a theoretical and empirical perspective. There are three main arguments in this study. First, the US-China competition is different from the US-China Cold War system in that it is a limited decoupling of complex interdependence that has intensified since the post-Cold War. Second, the results of economic statecraft for decoupling trade, technology and norms during the Trump-Xi Jinping period are limited. Third, the US-China competition as a means of economic and security strategy will expand the function and status of in-between powers, where the core interests of the US and China overlap.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

트럼프-시진핑 시기 본격화된 미중경쟁의 체제적인 성격은 무엇인가? 본 연구는 ‘미중경쟁체제(G2C System)’를 분석개념으로 제시하고 트럼프-시진핑 시기 미중관계의 특성을 이론적, 경험적 시각에서 분석한다. 본 연구의 핵심 주장은 세 가지다. 첫째, 미중경쟁은 탈냉전 이후 심화되어 온 복합적 상호의존의 제한적 탈동조화라는 점에서 미소 냉전체제와 상이하다. 둘째, 트럼프-시진핑 시기 무역, 기술, 규범 등 탈동조화를 위한 경제안보전략(economic statecraft)의 결과는 제한적이다. 셋째, 경제안보전략을 수단으로 하는 미중경쟁은 미중 양국에 핵심이익이 중첩되어 있는 중간국가(in-between power)의 기능과 위상에 따라 결정될 것이다. 마지막으로 미중경쟁과 중간국가가 상호작용하는 국제질서에서 한국의 외교안보 전략에 대한 함의를 검토한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 신범식, "지정학적 중간국 우크라이나의 대외전략적 딜레마" 국제학연구소 29 (29): 37-69, 2020
• 2 전봉근, "중소 중추국 외교전략과 한국외교" 국립외교원 외교안보연구소 2018
• 3 인민망, "중국공산당 창당 100주년, 시진핑 주석이 전한 초심과 결심, 자신감 (2021.07.02.)"
• 4 마상윤, "적(敵)에서 암묵적 동맹으로: 데탕트 초기 미국의 중국 접근" 한국정치연구소 23 (23): 313-338, 2014
• 5 김시홍, "유럽연합의 대외정책: 다극화, 전략적 자율 그리고 인도태평양" EU연구소 (59) : 219-244, 2021
• 6 윤대엽, "아베 내각의 경제적 국가책략: 다자적 헤징, 경쟁적 관여, 전략적 결속" 국제지역연구원 26 (26): 165-196, 2019
• 7 전봉근, "신국제질서와 한국외교전략" 명인문화사 1-29, 2018
• 8 윤대엽, "시진핑 체제 이후 중국의 경제적 국가책략: 경쟁, 관여와 강제" 사회과학연구원 부설 동북아연구소 34 (34): 153-181, 2019
• 9 박태균, "박정희 정부 시기 한국 주도의 동아시아 지역 집단안전보장 체제 구상과 좌절" 14 : 2010
• 10 이왕휘, "미중 무역전쟁: 미국 내에서 보호주의에 대한 저항과 중국의 대미 로비" 국가안전보장문제연구소 61 (61): 77-116, 2018
• 11 이상현, "냉전 지역주의와 일본의 아시아외교: 일본은 한국주도의 지역협의체 ASPAC에 어떻게 관여하였나?" 한국국제정치학회 58 (58): 55-98, 2018
• 12 김치욱, "국제정치의 분석단위로서 중견국가(Middle Power) : 그 개념화와 시사점" 한국국제정치학회 49 (49): 7-36, 2009
• 13 楊悅, "東盟對中美競爭的任職於應對" (4) : 42-60, 2021
• 14 張貴洪, "一帶一路倡議於印太章略構想的比較分析" (2) : 26-34, 2019
• 15 Talmadge, Caitlin, "Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States" 41 (41): 50-92, 2017
• 16 Ohlberg, Mareike, "Why China is Freaking Out over BIden’s Democracy Summit" 2021
• 17 Gompert, David C., "War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable" RAND 2016
• 18 Goldstein, Avery, "US-China Rivalry in the Twenty-first Century: Déjà vu and Cold War II" 2 : 48-62, 2020
• 19 Williams, Brock R., "Trump Administration TariffActions: Frequently Asked Questions" CRS 2020
• 20 Chase, Michael S., "The US Rebalancing Policy and China’s Search for a New Type of Great Power Relationship with the United States" 21 : 127-141, 2014
• 21 Economy, Elizabeth, "The Struggle for Power: US-China Relations in the 21st Century" The Aspen Institute 41-52, 2020
• 22 McQuarrie, Michael, "The Revolt of the Rust Belt: Place and Politics in the Age of Anger" 68 (68): 120-152, 2017
• 23 Fu, Ying, "The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present, and Future: A Chinese Perspective" 2017
• 24 Nye, Joseph S. Jr., "The Kindleberger Trap"
• 25 Friedberg, Aaron L., "The Future of US-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?" 30 (30): 7-45, 2005
• 26 Bergsen, Pepijn, "The EU’s Unsustainable China Strategy"
• 27 Hager, Rogert P., "The Cold War and Third World Revolution" 52 : 51-57, 2019
• 28 Campbell, Kurt M., "The China Reckoning: How Bejing Defied American Expectations" 97 (97): 60-71, 2018
• 29 Mutz, Diana C., "Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote" 115 (115): 4330-4339, 2018
• 30 Garrett, Geoffrey, "Rising China: Global Challenges and Opportunities" ANU Press 149-172, 2011
• 31 Lin, Bonny, "Regional Responses to US-Chnia Competiton in the Indo-pacific: Study Overview and Conclusions" RAND 2020
• 32 Barnett, Michael, "Power in International Politics" 59 (59): 39-75, 2005
• 33 Nye, Joseph S. Jr., "Power and Interdependence with China" 43 (43): 7-21, 2020
• 34 Anghel, Suzana, "On the Path to Strategic Autonomy: The EU in an Evolving Geopolitical Environment"
• 35 Kirshner, Johnathan, "Offensive Realism, Thucydides Traps, and the Tragedy of Unforced Errors: Classical Realism and US-China Relations" 1 (1): 51-63, 2019
• 36 Goh, Evelyn, "Nixon, Kissinger, and the Soviet Card in the US Opening to China, 1971-1974" 29 (29): 475-502, 2005
• 37 Lemahieu, Hervé, "How the Middle Powers Are Determining Asia’s Power Balance"
• 38 Haass, Richard, "How a World Order Ends: And What Comes in Its Wake" 98 (98): 22-30, 2019
• 39 Baum, Richard, "From Strategic Partners to Strategic Competitors: George W. Bush and the Politics of US China Policy" 1 (1): 191-220, 2001
• 40 Naughton, Barry, "Engaging China: Fifty Years of Sino-American Relations" Columbia University Press 174-196, 2021
• 41 Fingar, Thomas, "Engaging China: Fifty Years of Sino-American Relations" Columbia University Press 32-55, 2021
• 42 European Commission, "EU-China: A Strategic Outlook"
• 43 Weiss, Jessica Chen, "Domestic Politics, China’s Rise, and the Future of Liberal International Order" 75 (75): 635-664, 2021
• 44 Allison, Graham, "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?" Houghton Mifflin 2018
• 45 Tran, Hung, "Decoupling/Reshoring versus Dual Circulation: Competing Strategies for Security and Influence"
• 46 Schadlow, Nadia, "Competitive Engagement: Upgrading America’s Influence" 57 (57): 501-515, 2013
• 47 Gu, Bin, "Chinese Multilateralism in the AIIB" 20 : 137-158, 2017
• 48 Keller, William W., "China’s Rise and the Balance of Influence in Asia" University of Pittsburgh Press 2007
• 49 Reeve, Jeffrey, "China’ Unraveling Engagement Strategy" 36 (36): 139-149, 2013
• 50 Ikenberry, G. John, "China’ Emerging Institutional Statecraft: AIIB and the Prospect for Counter-hegemony"
• 51 Johnston, Alastair Iain, "China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Bejing’s International Relations" 44 (44): 9-60, 2019
• 52 Liff, Adam, "China and the US Alliance System" 133 : 137-165, 2017
• 53 Lamton, David M., "China and Clinton’s America: Have They Learned Anything?" 37 (37): 1099-1118, 1997
• 54 Swaine, Michael D., "A Relationship Under Extream Duress: US-China Relations at a Crossroads"
• 55 Kaplan, Robert D., "A New Cold War Has Begun"