동아시아 헤게모니 역사와 한국의 미래 = The History of Hegemony in East Asia and South Korea’s Future

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The East Asian history reflects the rise and fall of the great powers— hegemony. In particular, dramatic changes in terms of hegemony have been taking place in East Asia in the nineteenth and twentieth century. After the Opium War in the mid-nineteenth century, China lost its hegemonic power in this region, while Japan emerged as a new power with its successful ‘Meiji Restoration.’ Moreover, Japan became a new hegemonic power after its victory in the Sino-Japanese and the Russo-Japanese War in 1894 and 1904 respectively. However, Japan lost its hegemonic status when it defeated in the Pacific War with the United States in 1945. Then, since the post-Cold War, the United States has maintained its hegemonic status in world affairs.
Now, with the rise of China in the 21st century, furious debates have been going on in the academic community of international politics on whether China would and could become a next hegemon and what would be the likely result of this. As has been seen, in the East Asian history, South Korea was always the victim of hegemonic transformations. The crucial question for South Korea, therefore, should be: how it can maintain and enjoy stability, peace, and prosperity as an independent nation in the coming hegemonic change.
In this regard, this study attempts to examine: 1) the concepts and theoretical developments of hegemony; 2) the major characteristics and causes of the rise and fall of hegemonies existed in East Asia — China, Japan, and the United States in the 19th, 20th, and 21st century respectively; 3) the prospects of the rise of China in the 21st century; and 4) South Korea’s future strategy for its survival and prosperity in the coming hegemonic change.
This study concludes that it is inevitable that a new hegemon is coming, but it is less likely that China will replace the United States as a new hegemon within the next 50 years. In this process, however, the hegemonic competition between the United States and China will be increasingly severer than now. It will inevitably bring about enormous instability and uncertainty in international politics. South Korea, therefore, should prepare for any possibility for the future, either the rise of the benign hegemon or the imperialistic hegemon.
In doing this, South Korea should pursue a ‘civilized regional power,’ that is, a politically and economically more advanced, militarily more strong, and culturally more mature power in this region. With this, South Korea could become a more independent, viable, future-oriented, and leading country, becoming one of the 21st civilized powers in the world.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

동아시아의 19세기, 20세기, 21세기는 헤게모니 흥망의 역사이다. 이러한 헤게모니 흥망성쇠의 역사에서 과연 한국과 같은 약소국의 운명은 어찌 되었는지 그리고 앞으로 등장할동아시아 헤게모니 체제에서는 또 어찌 될지가 우리에게는 중요한 질문이다. 이러한 질문을위해서 과연 19세기, 20세기, 21세기에서 순차적으로 등장하는 중국, 일본, 미국의 헤게모니체제의 특징은 무엇이며 이러한 헤게모니 질서 속의 국가 간의 관계, 특히 헤게모니 국가와약소국과의 관계는 어떠하였는가가 또한 매우 중요한 질문이 아닐 수 없다.
본고에서는 이러한 문제의식을 가지고 첫째, 헤게모니에 대한 개념 및 이론적 연구들에대한 분석을 수행하고, 둘째, 19세기 중반 이후 동아시아 헤게모니의 변천에 대한 역사적접근을 통해 중국, 일본, 미국의 헤게모니의 성격과 특징을 살펴보았다. 셋째, 21세기 현재미국의 헤게모니 퇴조와 중국의 부상을 둘러싼 학계의 논쟁을 통해 현재의 헤게모니 실상에 대해서 분석하였다. 넷째, 미래의 헤게모니는 어떻게 전개될 것인가에 대해 심층적으로 분석하고, 마지막으로 이러한 헤게모니 시대에 있어서 한국은 생존과 번영을 위해서 어떠한 방향으로 나아가야 하는지를 제시하였다.
결론적으로 첫째, 향후 국제체제에서 헤게모니 체제의 출현이 불가피하다. 다만 향후 50여년 안에 미국적 질서가 중국적 헤게모니 질서에 완전히 자리를 물려주는 그런 대변환을 일어날 가능성은 적어 보인다. 미 ․ 중의 헤게모니 쟁탈전이 치열해질수록 그 과정에서 국제질서의안정성은 취약해질 것이고 그 속에서 갈등의 발화점에 서 있는 국가는 위기에 빠질 수 있다.한국에게는 당연히 안정적 헤게모니 질서보다도 불안정한 헤게모니 변화의 시기가 더 위험한것이다. 둘째, 어떠한 헤게모니 체제여도 헤게모니의 두 가지 성질 중 강압에 의한 헤게모니에 대한 대비책을 세워야 한다. 그것은 본질적으로 과거의 제국주의적 헤게모니 체제의 재출현을 의미한다. 셋째, 향후 이 지역에서 어떠한 헤게모니 체제가 등장하더라도 한국은 ‘문명적 지역선도 국가’로 발돋움해 나가야 한다.

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