“반론기술”을 이용한 여론의 구조분석: 원자력발전에 대한 일본인의 여론 = Structural analysis of public opinion utilizing the technique of counter argument: Japanese public opinion on nuclear power

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study has conducted an experimental survey on Japanese Nuclear Power by using a dynamic method that makes it possible to exchange political opinions in order to accurately measure public opinion and gain exact results. This study conducted the following steps: First, interviewees are asked if they are in favor of or against nuclear power. Then they are provided with “full arguments” and “empty arguments” as counter arguments, after reading the counter argument, they are asked their opinions again. This study was conducted with much anticipation as to how their first opinions, their interest in politics and nuclear power, their knowledge of politics and their information perception of nuclear power, are influenced when confronted with a counter argument.
The results of our analysis showed that the interviewees with higher interest, higher knowledge of politics and nuclear power, and higher information perception find it harder to change their opinions. However, there is no significant effect on the interviewees of each side after presenting the “full argument” and the “empty argument”. This means that Japanese public opinion on nuclear power is pretty consistent.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 “반론기술”을 이용하여 원자력발전에 대한 일본인의 여론의 동향을 탐구하였다. 먼저, 일반 여론조사 방법을 사용하여 일본 전국 성인남녀 3,360명에게 원자력발전에 대한 의견을 물었다. 그 다음, 스플릿(split) 샘플링하여 나눈 네 그룹 중 두 그룹의 찬성자와 반대자에게는 원자력발전의 장단점에 대한 정보를, 나머지 두 그룹에게는 원자력발전과 무관한 표면적 정보를 제공하여 반론을 시킨 후 그들의 의견을 재차 물어 의견의 변화 양상과 변화에 미치는 요인을 찾고자 시도하였다.
연구결과에 의하면, 1차 테스트의 의견 중 약 30%가 반론에 직면해 변화를 보였고, 이 변화에 영향을 주는 요인은 ‘초기의견’, ‘원자력발전과 정치에 대한 관심’, ‘정치지식’, ‘원자력발전에 대한 정보인지’로 드러났다. 즉, 응답자의 초기의견이 반대이거나, 정치와 원자력발전에 대한 관심과 지식, 그리고 정보인지가 높으면 높을수록 의견이 변화하지 않는 경향을 보였다. 한편, 제시한 반론, 즉 ‘내용이 있는 반론(full argument)’과 ‘표면적 반론(empty argument)’이 의견변화에 미치는 영향은 무의미한 것으로 드러나 원자력발전에 대한 일본인의 여론이 상당부분 일관됨을 알 수 있다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 "한국마케팅 여론조사협회(Korean Society Opinion & Marketing Research)"
• 2 신미경, "여론은 존재하지 않는다, In 사회학의 문제들" 동문선 241-253, 2004
• 3 月刊民放, "特集｢世論調査再考｣"
• 4 "東京新聞"
• 5 "日本deliberative polls"
• 6 内閣総理大臣官房広報室, "世論調査年鑑：全国世論調査の現況"
• 7 Journalism, "世論調査を調査する(認識の枠組み)"
• 8 다하라오토요리, "世論なんてない, In 社会学の社会学" 藤原書店 287-302, 1991
• 9 "http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/hold/2010/joushiki/list/ CK2010011102000081.html"
• 10 "http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/feature/joushiki/list/CK2010011102000081.html"
• 11 "http://dpjapan.org/"
• 12 Sniderman, Paul M., "The scar of race" University of California 1992
• 13 Lippmann, Walter, "The phantom public" Harcourt, Brace & Company 1925
• 14 Zaller, John, "The nature and origins of masse opinion" University of Cambridge Press 1992
• 15 Page, Benjamin I., "The Rational Public. Fifty Years of Trends in American Policy Preferences" University of Chicago Press 1992
• 16 Dewey, John, "The Publics and its Problems" H. Holt 1927
• 17 Sniderman, Paul M., "The New Racism" 35 : 1991
• 18 Sniderman, Paul M., "The New Look in Public Opinion Research, In Political Science Association: The State of the Discipline. vol. 2" American Political Science Association 219-246, 1993
• 19 Converse, Philip E., "The Nature of Beliefs in Mass Publics, In Ideology and Discontent" Free Press 206-261, 1964
• 20 Campbell, Anhus, "The American Voter" University of Chicago Press 1960
• 21 Lehingue, Partick, "Subunda: Coups de sonde dans l’océan des sondages" Editions du Croquant 2007
• 22 Converse, Philip E., "Public opinion and voting behavior, In Handbook of Political Science 4" 75-169, 1975
• 23 Kinder, Donald R., "Making Political Debate with Survey Questions: The Case of White Opinion on Affirmative Action for Blacks, In Social Cognition 8" 73-103, 1990
• 24 Bourdieu, Pi, "L’opinion publique n’existe pas" (318) : 1973
• 25 Tarde, Gabriel, "L’opinion et la foule" PUF 1989
• 26 Gaxie, Daniel, "Le cens caché, In Inégalités culturelles et ségrégation politique" Seuil 1978
• 27 Blondiaux, Loïc, "La fabrique de l'opinion. Une histoire sociale des sondages" Seuil 1998
• 28 Grunberg, Gérard, "La démocratie à l’épreuve: une nouvelle approche de l’opinion des Français" Presses de Sciences Po 2002
• 29 Blondiaux, Loïc, "La communication politique, In Etat des savoirs, enjeux et perspectives" Presses de l’Universitédu Québec 137-158, 2003
• 30 Hyman Herbert, "Interviewing in social research" University of Chicago Press 1954
• 31 Neuman, W. Russell, "Common knowledge: News and the construction of political meaning" University of Chicago Press 1992
• 32 Sniderman, Paul M., "Argumentation et raisonnement politique, In La démocratie à l’épreuve" Presses de Sciences Po 2002