구제역 바이러스의 공기 중 전파 관련 위험성 평가 및 대기 확산 모델 적용 = risk assessment and air dispersion model regarding wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is one of the most economically serious veterinary pathogens due to its negative effects on livestock’s condition and its highly infectious nature via variety of exposure paths through the oral and inhalation routes. Measures to enhance outbreak management can be designed according to analytical results predicted by mathematical models for wind-borne dispersion, an important path of virus transmission. Accurate atmospheric dispersion models are useful tools for properly determining risk management plan while inaccurate models may conversely lead to accidental loss in 2 possible ways. Over strict measure, for example, slaughter for too wide area can cause severe economic difficulties such as irreversible loss of ability to operate business for a number of farms. On the contrary, inestimable loss possibly caused by lax control is a persistent epidemic. In this paper, available modelling procedures with different advantages and limitations for forecasting the spread of FMDV that have been undertaken since the 1970s are reviewed for the purpose that it can be suitably applied with various conditions in any further emergency cases.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

구제역 바이러스는 소나 돼지 등의 우제류 가축에 경구 또는 흡입 노출 등의 다양한 노출 경로를 통해 심각한 감염성을 유발하는 생물학적 유해인자로 국내 축산업 운영에 있어 막대한 경제적 손실을 초래하는 병원균들 중 하나다. 구제역 발병에 대한 사전적 예방 관리를 도모할 수 있는 조치 방안 중 하나는 공기를 통해 전파되는 구제역 바이러스 확산에 대해 수학적 모델 적용을 통해 예측된 분석 결과에 따라 설정될 수 있다. 대기 확산 모델들은 일반적으로 구제역 바이러스의 주요 전파 경로인 경구 및 접촉 감염의 노출 시나리오를 예측할 수는 없으나, 상대적으로 예측도가 높은 대기 확산 모델의 경우 공기 전파에 대한 구제역 바이러스의 위해성 관리 방안을 결정하는 데 주요 역할을 담당할 수 있는 유용 가능한 수단으로 여러 나라에서 활용되어 왔다. 구제역 바이러스 전파를 억제하기 위한 엄격한 관리 방안 중 다량의 가축 살처분 방법은 축산 농가들에게 심각한 경제적 손실을 초래하여 심각한 경우 새로운 자립의 여건마저도 상실시킬 수도 있다. 반면 낮은 수준의 대응 방안은 향후 구제역 발생에 따른 추가적 피해를 근원적으로 억제할 수 없는 역학적 한계에 봉착할 수 있다. 본 연구는 구제역 바이러스의 기본 특성 및 발생 모델 적용에 따른 공기 중 전파의 감염 위험성 평가 관련 선행 문헌들을 고찰하였다. 또한 1970년대 이후 구제역 바이러스의 공기 전파 경로를 예측하기 위해 여러 나라에서 실제 활용된 다양한 대기 확산 모델들의 적용 사례 및 장/단점을 비교 분석하였다.

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