북핵 위기관리와 통일전략의 분석 = Analysis on The Crisis Management of north Korea`s Nuclear Threat and The Reunification Strategy of Korean Peninsular.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to explore the possibility of resolving north Korea`s nuclear threat in relation to the reunification of Korean peninsular. north Korea is developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles as a medium to accomplish political purpose. The paper analyzes all possible military and non-military measures that can be employed for resolving north Korean nuclear issue from the perspective of crisis management. The primary requisite for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is securing and strengthening the multilateral coordination and cooperation system among neighboring nations with the ROK-US alliance at its core against the backdrop of the United Nations` sanction regime targeting north Korea. The crisis emanating from the nuclear and missile threats by the North constitutes a single biggest stumbling block hampering the inter-Korean reunification on the peninsula. On the one hand, the crisis is a term used to describe an important cross-road situation where a patient in grave condition can be pronounced dead at the worst if something goes awry in a metaphorical sense, while on the other hand he can be recovered from illness or even be a Phoenix rising from the ashes at the best. In this regard, it is far from the stretch of imagination to assert that the removal or alleviation of north Korea`s nuclear problem, the source of all the illnesses on the peninsula, could be seen as a precursor of auspicious possibility that the situation could be evolved into the eventual reunification of two Koreas. The comprehensive analysis on the unification strategies of Germany, Yemen, and Vietnam has led to the major finding that the international environment was a key factor in attaining the unification. This implies that the linkage could be established between a various methods of maintaining pressures against the north Korea under the international coordination system and a wide range of approaches to create favorable international environment which is conducive to peaceful unification strategy through unilateral absorption or mutual agreement for achieving denuclearization or interruption of its nuclear weapons program. Ways of resolving north Korea`s nuclear issue can concretely take shape in the process henceforth. Whereas all possible military as well as non-military measures with regard to the north Korean nuclear issue should be ready in place from the stand point of crisis management, it is imperative that the door for the talks with north Korea must remain open together with coordination system involving neighboring countries. At the same time, timely communication should be proceeded through various channels in order to prevent miscalculations and unexpected behaviors from the opponent. A unification strategy was deduced from the lessons learned based on case studies of reunified nations, such as Germany, Vietnam, and Yemen. Firstly, lessons learned show that the reunification was only possible when circumstances of international community is favorable to the unification, parties concerned continue to work closely for the goal of attaining integration, and efforts are made to maximize common interests by overcoming differences of opinion throughout the entire process. In this connection, it is crucial to create favorable environment where the eventual unification could be materialized through crisis management vis-a-vis the north Korean nuclear issue in putting unification strategy of Korean peninsula in action on the ground.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 정경환, "현 단계 한반도 안보지형 분석과 우리가 지향해야 할 통일전략" 한국통일전략학회 16 (16): 9-37, 2016
• 2 김태우, "핵 그림자 전략과 3축 체제"
• 3 이무성, "한반도 통일과 통합이론의 개념적 고찰" 32 : 2012
• 4 박휘락, "한국 핵억제전략의 보완: 핵민방위(核民防衛)의 포함 여부를 중심으로" 세종연구소 20 (20): 41-70, 2014
• 5 서울대학교 통일평화연구원, "통일의식조사 2007-2012" 통일평화연구원 2012
• 6 안보문제연구원, "통일로 통권310호"
• 7 신옥희, "칼 야스퍼스, 비극적 실존의 치유자" 철학과 현실사 2008
• 8 엘리자베스 클레망, "철학사전: 인물들과 개념들" 동녘 2006
• 9 박휘락, "이스라엘, 일본, 한국의 탄도미사일 방어(BMD) 비교와 한국에 대한 함의" 국제지역연구센터 20 (20): 195-224, 2016
• 10 김우상, "신한국책략Ⅲ" 세창출판사 2012
• 11 이경, "분단국의 통일사례 비교 - 한반도에 주는 시사점-" 대한정치학회 18 (18): 49-78, 2011
• 12 權相壽, "분단국 통일환경에 관한 비교연구 : 독일·예멘·베트남의 사례를 중심으로" 中央大學校 大學院 1995
• 13 김태우, "북핵을 넘어 통일로" 명인문화사 2012
• 14 김태우, "북핵에 대비할 능동적 억제 전략"
• 15 박휘락, "북한핵에 대한 한국 억제전략의 분석: “거부적 억제” 개념에 의한 방어노력의 재조명" 한국국제정치학회 55 (55): 293-319, 2015
• 16 함형필, "북한의 장거리 탄도미사일 발사 의도 및 기술능력분석" 2012
• 17 김태우, "북한 핵미사일과 자주적 억제수단"
• 18 박휘락, "북한 핵미사일 위협에 대한 국가와 군의 대응 방향" (87) : 2016
• 19 문장렬, "북한 핵 및 미사일 위협 분석 평가" (87) : 2016
• 20 박재영, "국제정치 패러다임" 법문사 2009
• 21 이민룡, "국제위기와 한반도 위기관리" 양서각 2013
• 22 국방부, "국방일보"
• 23 조영갑, "국가위기관리론" 선학사 2006
• 24 Hall, Siobhan, "Yemen: The Politics of Unity" Gulf Center for Strategic Studies 1991
• 25 Imad Aldien Mohammed Ahmmed, "Yemen's Division and Unification in the Perspective of World System Theory" 延世大學校 國際學大學院 1991
• 26 Organski, A. F. K, "World Politics" Alfred A. Knopf 1958
• 27 Epstein, William, "Why States Go And Don't Go-Nuclear" 430 : 1977
• 28 Morgenthau, Hans J, "Theory of Diplomacy. Volume Ⅰ" SAGE Publications 2004
• 29 Hass, Ernst B, "The Uniting of Europe: Political, Social and Economic Forces. 1950-1957" Stanford University Press 1958
• 30 Riker, William H, "The Theory of Political Coalition" Yale University Press 1962
• 31 Mohmad, Ali, "The History of Arabian Peninsula" Dar Gandour Press 1970
• 32 Buzan, Berry, "Regions and Powers: the Structure of International Security" Cambridge University Press 2003
• 33 Knabe, Hubertus, "Politische Opposition in der DDR"
• 34 Burrowes, Robert D, "Oil Strike and Leadership Struggle in South Yemen: 1986 and Beyond" 43 (43): 1986
• 35 한용섭, "NPT체제는 끝났는가?"
• 36 Sorensen, Theodore C, "Kennedy" Harper & Row 1965
• 37 The Sino-Soviet Dispute, "Keesing's Research Report 3" Charles Scribner's Sons 1963
• 38 Possony, Stefan T, "Foreign Policy and Rationality" (fall) : 1968
• 39 Kissinger, Henry, "Diplomacy" Simon & Schuster 1994
• 40 Schmid, Gunther, "Die Entstehung der Ost-und Deutschlandpolitik 1969～1970" Verlag Wissenschaft und Politik 1979
• 41 Ravenhill, John, "Cycles of Middle Power Activism: Constraint and Choice in Australian and Canadian Foreign Policies" 52 : 1998
• 42 Herman, Charles F, "Crisis in Foreign Policy: A Simulation Analysis" The Bobbs-Merill Company, Inc 1969
• 43 Williams, Phi, "Crisis Management: Conflict and Diplomacy in the Nuclear Age" Martin Robertson 1976
• 44 Gilvert Arthur N, "Crisis Management: An Assessment and Critique" 24 (24): 1980
• 45 Wohlstetter, Albert and Roberta, "Controlling the Risks in Cuba" 1965
• 46 Doughterty, James E, "Contending Theories of International Relations" J. B Lippinott company 1971
• 47 Rosenau, James N, "Conflict Behavior and Linkage Politics" Daivd Mckay 1973
• 48 Pachter, Henry, "Collision Course" Praeger 1963
• 49 George, Alexander L, "Avoiding War: Problem of Crisis Management" Westview Press 1991
• 50 Schelling, T. C, "Arms and Influence" Yale University Press 1966
• 51 허남성, "6자회담의진로와 향후 과제" 2012
• 52 정찬권, "21세기 포괄안보시대의 국가위기관리론" 대왕사 2013
• 53 국회입법조사처, "2016년 동북아 질서와 북핵문제" 2016