극동에서 소련의 전략적 이익보장: 한국전쟁의 기원과 스탈린의 정책결정 동기 = Safeguarding the Soviet Union's Strategic Interests in Far East: On the Origins of the Korean War and Stalin's Decision-making Motive

국문 초록 (Abstract)

스탈린은 1949년 말까지도 북한이 무력을 사용하여 한반도 통일을 실현하는 것을 극력 저지했으나, 1950년 1월 말 갑자기 태도를 바꾸어 김일성의 주장을 적극 지지했다. 미국의 한반도전쟁에의 간섭 여부는 전쟁을 결정하는 조건이었을 뿐, 미국의 개입 유도 자체가 목적은 아니었다. 미국의 관심을 동아시아로 끌어들인 것은 전쟁의 결과였지, 결코 한국전쟁을 결정한 동기가 아니었다. 또한 아시아혁명을 고무하고 촉진하는 것 역시 일종의 표면적 현상이었을 뿐 소련 외교전략의 전환은 아니었다.
1950년 중소우호동맹상호원조조약의 체결로 인해 소련은 태평양으로 향하는 유일한 항구와 부동항을 상실했고, 이것은 의심할 것 없이 중대한 전략적 이익의 손실이었다. 그 결과 소련은 아시아에서 전략상 거점을 상실하게 되었다. 결국 스탈린이 김일성의 전쟁 개시에 동의했던 것은 그 승패 여부와 관계없이, 그가 극동에서 설정했던 소련의 전략목표를 보장할 수 있었기 때문이다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

By the end of 1949 Stalin had used every conceivable stratagem in order to prevent North Korea from launching a war for unification against South Korea. But by late January 1950, Stalin suddenly had a change of mind and decided to wholeheartedly support Kim Il-sung to achieve his goal. Whether or not the United States would intervene was only a precondition, not the end. To draw U.S.'s attention to the Far East was the end result, but not the motive. And to encourage and promote Asian revolution was only the superficial phenomenon, but not the shift in Soviet's diplomatic strategy.
The signing of the Sino-Soviet alliance treaty in 1950 meant that the Soviet Union would lose its only exit to the Pacific Ocean and warm-water port. Without doubt, this would cause great loss to Soviet's strategic interests. As a result, the Soviet Union would lose its strategic backing in Asia. The reason why Stalin decided to support Kim Il-sung’s attack on South Korea was that he hoped to regain or safeguard Soviet's tradition strategic prop in the Far East through this military action. No matter what the outcome might be, the military conflict in the Korean peninsula would guarantee Soviet's strategic aim as designed by Stalin.

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