인과지도(Causal Loop)를 활용, 미래 물수급관리 정책 지원을 위한 기초연구 = Review of Water Budget Management Methods Using Causal Loop

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study reviewed existing methods of water budget management. Major factors in relation to future water demand and supply, and related socio-economic factors as well as climate change concerns were identified. Factors were selected from existing literatures and relations between factors were drawn using a causal loop, which is used for conceptual structurisation as a basis of system dynamics model construction. Factors defined for water demand were ① Domestic water, ② Industrial water, ③ Agricultural water, and ④ River maintenance water, and ① River flow, ② Water in reservoirs, ③ Groundwater, and ④ Replacement water were identified as the main sources of water supply. Existing literatures which applied system dynamics methods on water budget problems were reviewed in order to identify the effects of related factors and their interactions. Some examples that established balancing indicators for water budget management were referenced. Examples of the balancing indicators include substantiality index, water adequacy index, self-sufficiency index and cost index. Changes in consumer behaviour in relation to cost and financial impact on water budget were also identified through literature review. A causal loop diagram for water budget management was designed first by using the main factors of water demand and water supply. Additional socio-economic factors as well as climate change concerns were then added on the initial diagram. A loop diagram that reflects financial impact was drawn on a separate page. The financial loop can influence the cost of water that would control the quantity of water demand and water supply. It can also be used as a control loop for water budget management loop by inserting it in the investment factor. The methods for reflection would require complementation. The main purpose of this study was to identify the main factors of future water demand and supply management, including key socio-economic and climate change related elements. Financial impact factors were also assumed to be a control factor of the future water budget management method. Interactions between related factors were also investigated through literature review. It is expected that the output of this study would be used as the base map of the future water budget management modelling as well as the main structure of decision support system.