싱가포르 2018: 4세대 리더십 전환 예고와 집권당의 도전과제 = Singapore 2018: Making a Turning Point for Leadership Transition

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

At the end of 2018, the People’s Action Party(PAP) appointed Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat as the party’s first assistant secretary-general, hinting that he will succeed PM Lee Hsein Loong in the coming years. The party renewal has been also made as fourth generation leaders took a stronger hold of the party’s highest ruling body. The leadership renewal in 2018 put an end to uncertainty over who will lead the country after PM Lee, but concerns about leadership transition have not entirely abated. Minister Heng will take over the reins of leadership from his predecessor with the shortest preparation period in Singapore’s history. It also remains to be seen whether the fourth generation leaders are ready to address uneasy challenges for Singapore and the party itself. In 2018, the PAP faced uncomfortable issues that may undermine its political legitimacy. Given the uncertainty of the global economy, it is uncertain if Singapore can sustain growth. The PAP is also under pressure to address public grievances over rising inequality. The aging population requires more public spending for the elderly. The prickly relationship with Mahatir-led Malaysia threatens water security and triggered maritime dispute.Singaporeans have given up certain civil liberties in exchange for security, economic prosperity and better quality of life. Since this social compact has weakened over the past 20 years, the failure to address those challenges above will further shake the legitimacy of the ruling party. The next general election will be a test for both the fourth generation leaders and the legitimacy of the PAP.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2018년 인민행동당(PAP)은 헹 스위 킷(Heng Swee Keat) 재무부 장관을 차기 총리로 지명하고 4세대 리더십을 향한 전환점을 마련했다. 후계 구도 확정으로 정치적 불확실성은 해소되었지만 차기 지도부에 대한 의문이 완벽히 해소된 것은 아니다. 헹 장관은 싱가포르 역사상 가장 짧은 준비 기간을 거쳐 총리직에 올라야 하며, 4세대 지도부의 대부분이 40대의 젊은 인사들로 구성되어 있다. 인민행동당의 정치적 정당성이 약화되고 있는 상황에서 헹 장관을 비롯한 4세대 지도부는 자신들이 선대 지도부들에 버금가는 정치적 리더십과 능력이 있음을 증명해야 한다. 2018년 인민행동당은 자신들의 정치적 정당성에 영향을 미칠 여러 도전과제에 직면하였다. 글로벌 경제의 불확실성 속에서 경제 성장을 지속해야 하며, 심각한 사회 이슈로 공론화된 불평등 문제를 해결해야 한다. 고령층과 저소득층을 지원할 복지 재원 마련도 시급하다. 북미 정상회담 개최와 아세안 의장국 수행은 싱가포르의 국제적 위상을 제고시켰지만, 마하티르 모하마드(Mahathir Mohamad) 말레이시아 총리의 재집권 이후 악화된 양국 관계를 풀어나가야 한다. 온라인상의 정책 토론이 활발해지고 있는 시점에서 허위 사실 유포 방지법 도입과 정부 비판에 대한 강경 대응은 집권당의 정치적 정당성을 더욱 약화시킬 수 있다. 리셴룽 총리는 조기 총선 실시 가능성을 시사했으며, 차기 총선은 4세대 지도부에 대한 국민들의 신임과 더불어 인민행동당의 정치적 정당성을 재평가하는 시험대가 될 전망이다.

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