건물 집합에 대한 낙뢰 피해액 추정 = Estimation of the Loss Induced by Lightning for the Building Sets

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper, we proposed the empirical formulas to estimate the incident rate induced by lightning for industrial, commercial, andhigh-rise building sets. The data used is based on the 2009-213 building sets and lightning observations. The lightning claims arefound to increase in proportion to the height of the building that is why the incident rate of the high-rise building set gets to the top.
The 5-year moving maximum lightning strikes are more appropriate to use for estimating the lightning loss rather than the 5-yearmoving average lightning. The accumulated loss during 2009-2013 is 14.6 billion Won and the estimated accumulated loss with the 5-year moving maximum lightning exceeds 1.8 billion Won. We recommend the 5-year moving maximum lighting for loss estimationand expect that the formulas would contribute to the evaluation of pure risk by lightning for the covering insured.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 용도에 따른 건물 집단의 낙뢰 사고 발생률을 추정할 수 있는 경험식을 제안한다. 건물 용도는 공장, 일반, 고층건물 집합으로 구분되며, 건물 집합별 2009-2013 5년간 낙뢰 사고 자료와 낙뢰 관측 자료를 이용하여 경험식을 추정한다. 낙뢰 사고는 건물층수가 많을수록 발생률도 증가하는 것으로 나타나 고층건물에서 사고발생률이 가장 높았다. 내년의 낙뢰 사고건수와 그로 인한 피해액을 예측하는 데는 5개년간 이동평균 낙뢰 횟수보다 5개년간 이동최대 낙뢰 횟수를 이용하는 것이 실무적으로 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 2009-2013 기간의 5년간 누적 낙뢰 사고 피해액은 약 146억 원 이었으며 5개년간 이동최대 낙뢰 횟수를 이용한 낙뢰 사고 피해액추정치는 이보다 18억 원을 초과하였다. 낙뢰 피해액 추정에 5개년간 이동최대 낙뢰회수 사용을 추천하며 본 연구에서 제시한 낙뢰 피해액 추정기법이 낙뢰 담보 보험 상품의 순위험 평가에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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