북·러 신(新)조약의 도전과 한반도 = The Challenges of the New North Korea-Russia Treaty and the Korean Peninsula

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

After a downward spiral in the post-Cold War era, North Korea-Russia relations hit their lowest point with the termination of the Treaty of Amity between Soviet Union and North Korea, but efforts to restore them have been ongoing since Russian president Putin took office, culminating in the establishment of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” last June. The two visits by Putin to North Korea are contrasting events that illustrate the complete transformation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. But rather than jump to hasty conclusions, we need to understand the changes more contextually and respond thoughtfully. The texts of the North Korea-Russia New Treaty and their strategic approaches need to be read within the context of the changing international order as represented by the U.S.-China strategic competition, the emergence of a fragmented regional order due to wars in Ukraine and Middle East, and the accelerating reshaping of the international order due to the rise of the Global South. To examine the context, there are several perspectives, including the New-Cold War order perspective, the post-hegemonic world order perspective, and the three worlds perspective, which have the limitation of focusing on one aspect of the changes. Taken together, the North-Russia approach can be seen as the result of the convergence of both countries’ current needs and future strategies. However, strategic partnership cannot be achieved by declaration; it is a process that is achieved through mutual strategic interaction. In that sense, the window of opportunity to restore and take advantage of the ROK-Russia strategic partnership is not completely closed. Through the new Russo-North Korean treaty Russia appears to be preparing the table of policy options for the new U.S. administration to explore new ways of balance of power with China by strengthening Russia’s presence in Eurasia at points of possible Chinese checks, while containing the potential for accidental conflict on the Korean Peninsula. In response to this new challenge, South Korea needs to respond to the challenge of a North Korea-Russia strategic approach by strengthening its partnership with the United States, Japan, and South Korea, and managing its relationship with China, while at the same time exploring flexible pragmatic diplomacy to redesign and fill in the contents of its strategic cooperation with Russia.