유럽연합에 대한 한국과 미국의 수출경쟁 대체 탄력성 분석을 중심으로 = Export Competition between Korea and the U.S. in the European Union - The elasticity of substitution analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper attempts to explain the export competition between Korea and the U.S. in the European Union market. The degree of competition is measured by estimating for elasticity of substitution using a refined simple demand model. The experiment has been conducted at industry level of HS 2-digit for 15 major export industries of Korea and the U.S. into the European market. The monthly time series data cover the period from 1999:1 to 2013:3. The empirical findings show that although the market share of the U.S. product in the EU market is higher than the share of Korea commodity, Korea has higher competitiveness in exports against those of the U.S. in the EU market in four industries: HS27 (mineral fuels), HS72 (iron and steel), HS89 (ships and boats) and HS90 (optical products). In addition, the degree of export competition in each industry is examined at disaggregate level (HS 4-digit) using the Rivalry Threat Index. The results at HS-4 digit support the empirical outcomes of HS-2 digit experiments. The findings of this article provide the policy implication that Korea should emphasize and support the exports of those four industries in order to compete with the exports from the U.S. in the EU market after the enforcement of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (The EU-US Free Trade Agreement) in the near future.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 유럽연합에서 한국과 미국의 수출품 간의 경쟁에 대한 분석을 시도한다. 수정된 단순 수요모형을 바탕으로, 대체탄력성의 측정을 통해 두 국가 간의 경쟁의 정도가 추정되었다. 유럽연합에 대한 한국과 미국의 15개 주요 수출산업에 대해 HS 2단위 수준에서, 분석이 실시되었다. 추정을 위한 월별 시계열자료는 1999년 1월에서 2013년 3월에 걸친 자료를 사용하였다. 실증연구의 결과는, 비록 유럽연합시장에서 미국상품의 시장점유율이 한국상품의 점유율보다 높지만, 한국은 유럽연합시장에서 4개 산업 - HS27 (광물성연료), HS72 (철강), HS89 (조선), HS90 (광학기기) -에서 미국상품에 비해 더 높은 수출 경쟁력을 가진 것으로 나타나고 있다. 더 세밀한 실증분석을 위하여, 각 개별산업의 수출경쟁력을 HS 4단위 수준으로 세분화하여 경쟁위협지수를 사용하여 추정을 진행하였다. HS 4단위에서 진행된 분석결과역시도 HS 2단위 실증분석 결과를 뒷받침하고 있다. 본 논문 분석의 정책적 함의는, 가까운 장래에 환대서양 무역투자협정(TTIP)이 발효된 후에는 한국이 EU시장에서 미국 수출품과의 경쟁에 대비하여, 위의 4개 산업을 지원해야 한다는 것이다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• <국문요약>
• Ⅰ. Introduction
• Ⅱ. Literature review
• Ⅲ. Methodology
• Ⅳ. Estimation results
• Ⅴ. Conclusion

참고문헌 (Reference)

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