러-우 전쟁 이후 북·러 협력의 성격 전환과 남북 관계에 미치는 영향 = The Transformation of North Korea-Russia Cooperation after the Russia-Ukraine War and Its Implications for Inter-Korean Relations

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to understand the strategic understanding of North Korea-Russia relations amid the turbulent international situation of the Russo-Ukrainian War and explore the implications of these changes for inter-Korean relations and the Northeast Asian security environment. This study traces the literature on changes in North Korea-Russia relations from the post-Cold War period to 2025, focusing on the changes following the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. The analysis draws on prior research, Russian and international media reports, and domestic and international media and literature, including reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The research findings are as follows. First, the study found that the Russo-Ukrainian War led North Korea to solidify its strategic interests with Russia, restructuring bilateral relations from the previous symbolic cooperation or limited strategic partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Second, the background of this cooperation stemmed from strategic political, security, and economic factors, including North Korea's efforts to overcome economic and international isolation following COVID-19, secure military technology, and secure energy supplies, and Russia's efforts to contain the United States, secure military supplies, and evade sanctions. Third, the close ties between North Korea and Russia could negatively impact overall inter-Korean relations, including a shift in the gap in inter-Korean military power, pressure on South Korea's diplomatic space, and the potential deterioration of South Korea-Russia relations. Fourth, the strategic closeness between North Korea and Russia could reinforce the new Cold War structure in Northeast Asia and enable North Korea to gain the upper hand in the security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the region. While previous studies have fragmentarily examined North Korea-Russia relations, focusing on cooperation during the Cold War, post-Cold War, or up to the 2000s, or on policy or diplomatic symbolism, this study is significant in that it provides an empirical analysis focusing on the changes in North Korea-Russia relations following the Russo-Ukrainian War.