다수준 혼합효과 로짓분석을 적용한 고속도로 차종별 사고확률 영향요인 분석 = Multilevel Mixed-Effect Logit Models of Influencing Factors on Expressway Crash Probability by Vehicle Type

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

PURPOSES : The primary purpose of this study is to establish a crash probability model based on a statistical method that explains the relationship between regressor and explanatory variables using both fixed and random effects to control the heterogeneous characteristics of the observed data. In addition, an attempt was made to discover the leading cause of crashes by vehicle type, including passenger car, bus, truck, and trailer.
METHODS : The levels of each route and day of the week are grouped using raw expressway crash data for 10 years from 2012 to 2021, and a multilevel mixed-effect logit model is constructed for each vehicle type assuming that the error terms are derived from the hierarchical structure of the group to which they belong.
RESULTS : Speeding and obstacles on the road are significant factors that increase the probability of passenger car crashes, and bus crashes have a high rate at toll gates on weekdays.
CONCLUSIONS : The multilevel mixed-effect logit model derived in the study has higher accuracy than the general logit model, confirming that mixed-effect analysis is plausible.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 임준범 ; 이수범 ; 김준기 ; 김정현, "확률모수를 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발: 지방부 다차로 도로를 중심으로" 대한교통학회 32 (32): 662-674, 2014
• 2 강찬모 ; 정연식 ; 장유진, "순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용한 고속도로 화물차 사고 심각도" 대한토목학회 39 (39): 391-398, 2019
• 3 권영민 ; 장기태 ; 손상훈, "순서형 프로빗 모형을 이용한 렌터카 사고 심각도 영향요인 분석" 한국ITS학회 17 (17): 1-17, 2018
• 4 김형준 ; 전교석 ; 장정아 ; 윤일수, "메타분석을 이용한 버스 및 트럭 교통사고 심각도 요인 분석" 대한교통학회 38 (38): 520-535, 2020
• 5 김주희 ; 이수범 ; 김다희 ; 홍지연, "고속도로 지정차로제 위반과 교통사고 심각도와의 관계분석: 화물차량을 대상으로" 대한교통학회 30 (30): 119-127, 2012
• 6 Lee, K. Y, "The Application and Development of Accident Model on Freeways" 36 : 117-122, 1999
• 7 Lim, J. K, "Relationship between Regional Characteristic and Traffic accident Severity Using Multi-level Model" 2014 (2014): 287-296, 2014
• 8 Usman, T, "Injury severity analysis: Comparison of multilevel logistic regression models and effects of collision data aggregation" 24 : 73-87, 2016
• 9 Rec. Solah, M. S, "In-depth crash investigation on bus accidents in Malaysia" 3 : 22-31, 2013
• 10 Razi-Ardakani, H, "Identifying factors affecting severity of urban and rural bus crashes" 2014
• 11 Hakkanen, H, "Fatal traffic accidents among trailer truck drivers and accident causes as viewed by other truck drivers" 33 (33): 187-196, 2001
• 12 Han, W, "Driver behaviour and traffic accident involvement among professional heavy semi- trailer truck drivers in China" 16 (16): e0260217-, 2021
• 13 Hong, J. Y, "Discovering Insightful Rules among Truck Crash Characteristics using Apriori Algorithm" 2020 (2020): 1-16, 2020
• 14 Stein, H. S, "Crash Involvement of Large Trucks by Configuration: A Case-Control Study" 78 (78): 491-498, 1988
• 15 Zheng, Z, "Commercial truck crash injury severity analysis using gradient boosting data mining model" 65 : 115-124, 2018
• 16 Taneerananon, P, "Bus crash situation in Thailand: case studies" 6 : 3617-3628, 2005
• 17 Lemp, J. D, "Analysis of large truck crash severity using heteroskedastic ordered probit models" 43 (43): 370-380, 2010