외교정책결정자의 개인적 특성과 미국의 군사적 개입격차: 오바마 대통령의 크림반도 및 남중국해 대응 비교 = Foreign Policy Maker’s Personality Attributes and ‘Intervention Divide’ of U.S. Military Intervention: Comparison of Obama’s Responses to Russia’s Crimea Annexation and China’s Island Build-up in the South China Sea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This research aims to investigate policy decision dynamics behind U.S. non-military intervention in the Crimea crisis and military intervention in China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. In order to review the difference in Washington’s military intervention against the two revisionist major powers, it looks at which variable worked most critically to have strong explanatory power among multiple determinants of foreign policy decision-making process. In common with earlier studies, while recognizing complex interplay among individual, domestic, and international system variables involved in foreign policy decision-making process, this study argues that the top policy maker played a crucial role in determining military intervention. On the premise that each policy-making phase of problem recognition, diagnosis, planning and selection provides an important framework for understanding foreign policy decision-making process, it reviews how President Obama’s personal attributes, especially his perception, belief system, motive, definition of situations, and preferences had a decisive influence on military intervention decisions.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 오바마 행정부 시기 러시아의 크림반도 합병사태에 대한 미국의 군사적 불개입과 중국의 남중국해 인공섬 건설에 대한 군사적 개입 이면의 정책결정 동학을 규명하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 규칙 기반의 국제질서에 도전한 두 강대국(러시아와 중국)에 대한 군사적 ‘개입격차’를 고찰하는 데 있어 외교정책결정요인들 중 어떤 요인이 가장 적실성 있는 설명력을 지니는지 살펴보았다. 본 연구는 다른 기존연구들과 마찬가지로 개인적, 국내적 및 체제적 변수의 상호작용이 군사적 개입 여부를 결정하는 데 중요하다는 점을 인식하면서도, 최고정책결정자의 특성과 역할이 가장 중요한 변수라고 주장한다. 문제인식, 진단, 계획, 그리고 선택이라는 각각의 정책결정단계가 외교정책결정과정을 이해하는 중요한 분석틀을 제공한다는 전제 하에, 크림반도와 남중국해 사태에 대한 미국의 대응에 있어 오바마의 개인적 특성, 특히 그의 인식, 신념체계, 동기, 상황정의, 선호 등이 어떻게 군사적 개입과 불개입을 가르는 데 영향을 끼쳤는지 고찰하였다.

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