코로나바이러스 모델링의 사회학: 영국의 수학적 모델은 왜 초기방역에 실패했는가?

국문 초록 (Abstract)

지난해 12월에 발생한 신종감염병인 코로나-19는 엄청난 확산력으로 초유의 팬데믹으로 이어졌다. 특히 서유럽 국가들의 경우 초기방역에 실패하면서 국가의 활동을 중단하는 전면적 봉쇄정책으로 이어졌다. 유럽의 봉쇄정책은 한국이 진행했던 “봉쇄없는 억제정책”과는 매우 다른 질병관리체계에 근거했다. 특히 영국의 질병관리정책은 지금까지 교과서적인 수준의 정교하고 치밀한 방역정책에 근거하여 성공해왔다. 하지만 이번 신종 코로나바이러스의 확산과정에서 영국의 방역정책은 완전한 실패로 이어졌다. 영국의 방역정책은 근본적으로 두 가지 원칙에 근거했다; 수학적 모델에 기초한 예측과 독감모델에 근거한 전략이다. 본 논문은 영국 방역정책의 기반이 된 수학적 모델이 기반한 예측방법이 어떻게 전례 없는 실패로 이어졌는가를 분석하게 될 것이다. 수학적 모델에 기반한 질병의 확산예측모델의 효용은 이미 1990년대 광우병 확산과 2001년 구제역 확산과정에서 이미 그 기술적 신뢰를 얻었으며 방역정책에 기본적인 자원으로 사용되었다. 2020년 코로나-19의 확산에 대한 방역정책을 준비하는 과정에서 임페리얼 컬리지 연구팀이 제시한 수학적 모델은 전국적인 봉쇄정책을 결정하는 데 결정적인 역할을 했다. 하지만 수많은 확진자와 사상자를 낸 방역정책의 실패에 대해 일부 학자들은 “한 세기에 한 번 일어날 수 있는 증거 부족으로 인한 정책의 실패”로 규정하면서 수학적 모델링의 신뢰성에 문제를 제기했다. 본 논문은 임페리얼 컬리지 연구팀의 수학적 모델링에 기반한 코로나-19 확산 모델의 형성과 유용성을 둘러싼 논쟁을 분석할 것이다. 또한, 충분한 실제 질병데이터에 기반하지 않은 모델의 유용성을 둘러싼 논쟁을 분석하면서 코로나-19 팬데믹의 상황에서 유럽 및 미국의 방역정책에서 질병모델이 어떤 맥락에서 사용되었는가에 대해 분석할 것이다. 이러한 방역전략을 분석함에 있어서 몇 가지 설명요인으로 환원하여 설명하는 접근은 전체적인 질병 거버넌스를 이해하는데 한계가 있다. 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 과학기술학에서 제기하는 “과학실천스타일”이라는 개념을 적용하여 수학적 역학모델이 어떻게 방역전략과 결합되었는가를 설명할 것이다. 본 연구는 한국의 코로나-19 방역정책의 특이성을 이해하는데 있어서 중요한 비교대상으로서 유럽국가의 방역체계와의 비교를 위한 기초가 될 것이다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since the mysterious pneumonic disease was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the novel infectious disease has made an enormous social and economical impact on every corner of the world. As Covid-19 becomes the pandemic case, European countries failed to control the spread of disease and implemented the total national lockdown, while Korea has undertaken quite a different strategy of disease control without lockdown. In particular, this paper focuses on the case of the British strategy for controlling Covid-19, which turned out to be a total failure. The British way of governing the disease is based on two main principles: the mathematical epidemiological model and flu-based model. This study examines the disease control policies that is base on the mathematical epidemiological model, which leads to unprecedented failure. In Britain, the mathematical epidemiology has a long history since the BSE and FMD in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Since then, the mathematical epidemiology plays a significant role in predicting the spread of infectious diseases and making crucial decisions in the level of government. During the early stage of the Covid-19 pandemic, mathematical epidemiologists in Imperial College London become prominent figures when the Conservative government decided to shut down the whole nation. This study explores how the mathematical model becomes an important tool for controlling Covid-19. Also, the controversy between the mathematical epidemiologists and clinical epidemiologists on the effectiveness and credibility of the mathematical models for predicting and controlling disease without collecting empirical data would be discussed. To analyse the controversy, the concept, styles of scientific practice in the field of science and technology studies is to be introduced and mobilised to explain the difference between the two positions. This study would be a useful case for establishing long-term strategies for governing Covid-19 in Korea.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 국문 요약
• Ⅰ. 들어가는 말
• Ⅱ. 과학실천의 스타일로서 수학적 모델
• Ⅲ. 영국에서의 초기방역전략과 수학모델의 역할
• Ⅳ. 수학적 역학모델과 추상적 과학실천스타일
• Ⅴ. 결론을 대신하여: 영국의 수학적 방역모델은 초기방역에 실패했는가?
• 참고문헌
• Abstract

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