흡수능력과 공간의존성을 고려한 슘페터 기술 확산모형에서의 아시아 국가들의 소득수렴 검정 = Income convergence test for Asian countries in the Schumpeterian technology diffusion model

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 Ertur and Koch(2011)의 슘페터 성장모형과 Ertur and Koch(2007)등의 신고전파 성장모형을 확장하여 1970년부터 2014년까지 아시아 11개 국가들의 경제성장 설명력과 소득수렴가설을 공간적 종속성과 파급효과를 고려하는 패널 공간계량모형으로 분석하였다. 분석결과 국가 간 경제성장에 공간의존성이 존재하며 상호영향력을 미치고 있음을 발견하였다. 경제성장률에 대한 기술수준(R&D)의 대용변수들, 총 요소생산성, FDI, 인적자본 등의 추정계수 값이 유의하고 양의 부호로 나타나 슘페터 모형을 지지하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 기술흡수 능력을 고려하는 슘페터 기술 확산모형 분석에서 인적자본과 결합된 기술생산성과 무역비중이 중요한 기술흡수 능력변수로 나타났고 이 경우 아시아 국가 간 소득수렴속도도 빠르게 나타났다. 확장된 MRW모형에서도 인적자본 뿐만 아니라 총 요소생산성이나 무역비중등도 모두 유의한 값으로 나타나 유용한 모형임을 보여 주었으며 수렴속도는 슘페터 기술 확산모형보다 더 빠르게 나타났다. 선진국인 일본을 포함한 모형에서도 아시아경제성장을 설명하는 데 있어 두 모형 사이에는 큰 차이가 없었으며 소득수준의 장기균제상태로 수렴하고 있음을 확인하였다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, we tested the income convergence hypothesis using the extended growth model of Ertur and Koch (2011) and Ertur and Koch (2007) of 11 Asian countries in the period 1970-2014. We use a panel spatial Durbin approach considering technology spillover and spatial interdependence. We found that there was a spatial dependence and income convergence among Asian economies. The estimated R&D coefficients on total economic growth rate and total factor productivity were significant, supporting the Schumpeter technology diffusion model. Total factor productivity combined with human capital was the most important absorptive capacity variable, and the rate of convergence between countries was also faster in this case. In the expanded MRW model, not only the human capital but also the total factor productivity and trade freedom degree were all significant factors and showed a useful model to explain Asian economic growth and development. The convergence rate in MRW model was faster than the Schumpeter technology diffusion model. There was no significant difference between the two models in explaining the economic growth of Asia and it was confirmed that it converged to the long-term steady-state.

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