東北亞 軍事秩序의 展望 = Prospects of Military Order in Northeast Asia

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Warnings against the Soviet expansionism and the Soviet threat are frequently raised in many countries, in the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) in particular. The Soviet expansionism became the focus of the world attention when in 1975 the three nations in the Indochina Peninsula fell into the hands of Pro-Soviet governments. Also, soon following the similar fate were Angola. Ethiopia, and South Yemen. It reached a high point when ten thousands of the Soviet soldiers invaded Afghanistan in late 1979. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan posed a serious problem for the United States in the sense that Moscow crossed the boundary implicit in the balance of power arrangements between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Until the early 1970s, the Middle East was an area where Washington needed not to intervene directly with its own military forces. But beginning in the latter part of the 1970s, certain countries there became pro-Soviet, and Iran which used to serve as the safety valve for American's Middle East policies underwent drastic political changes, requiring the reshuffling of the US policies. The reshuffling included the creation of the Rapid Deployment Forces (RDF) and even the possible redeployment of the US forces stationing in Asia and the Pacific. The Middle East has now become one of the most dangerous regions in the world where conflicts might occur, and, accordingly, the United States has strengthened its military preparedness, working out contingency plans.
Outside the Middle East, the United States has taken measures to counter the Soviet military build-up. First, President Reagan outlined in his press conference in early October this year what was called the Reagan strategic plan to increase America's strategic capabilities. The plan envisions the deployment at least o( 100 MX missiles and the production of 100 remodeled B-1 bombers. Altogether, the number of the US strategic weapons will double by 1990.
Second, on President Reagan's urging, the member states of the NATO have agreed to increase their defense budget by 3 percent a year. In a report on "The
Responsibilities of the Allies in Defense Expenditures" issued on August 11, 1981, Deferlse Secretary Weinberger evaluated the contributions made by the NATO members and Japan to the security of the West. Japan, in the report, was ranked only the next to the last. Secretory Weinberger also released a report on the Soviet military strength on September 29, 1981. These are parts of the US extorts to pressure its allies, Japan and the NATO, to increase their defense expenditures, through niakiRg public concrete evidence on the threat of the Soviet military build-up.
In East Asia, as a result of the American extorts for increased military
burden-sharing between the United States and its allies, japan is under enormous
pressures to increase its defense expenditures, while at the same time the military cooperation between the United States and the PRC is being strengthened. Up to now, the military order in East Asia has been predicated on the presence of the American forces there. Japan toras totally dependent on the protection provided by the United States, as guaranteed by the security treaty between the two coutries. China, on the other hand, was the most important potential enemy for the United States.
From this perspective, a new pattern of military picture will emerge in East Asia, with rearrangements in the security cooperation between Washington and Tokyo, and the further deepening of the semi-military alliance betweeen Washington and Peking. The increase in Japan's defense budget is inevitable in view of the pressures from the United States for readjusting the trade imbalance. For China, the successful implementation of its four modernization program requires the continuous Row of foreign capital an4 technology into China. It is not in a position to divert a major portion of its GNP into the defense sector to cope with the Soviet threat. This is why China is likely to continue in its present policy of approaching the West, the United States and Japan in particular, for economic and military cooperation.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序論
• Ⅱ. [소련의 위협]
• Ⅲ. 日本과 東北亞의 軍事秩序
• Ⅳ. 中共의 軍事力과 美.中共 軍事協力의 限界性
• Ⅴ. 結論-東北亞 軍事秩序의 展望