KCI등재
세대별 고용의 성장 탄력성에 관한 연구 = Generational Growth Elasticities of Employment in Korea
저자
발행기관
학술지명
권호사항
발행연도
2019
작성언어
-주제어
KDC
300
등재정보
KCI등재
자료형태
학술저널
수록면
53-78(26쪽)
KCI 피인용횟수
0
DOI식별코드
제공처
Both world and Korean economy have changed sharply after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The pre-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of ‘jobless growth’, which means that economic growth rate is relatively higher than increase rate of employment. In contrast, the post-Global Financial Crisis era is an age of 'growthless jobs', which means that increase rate of employment is relatively higher than economic growth rate.
This paper investigates the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment by making a comparison between the pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2001∼2007 period and the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011∼2017 period in Korea. So it divides total population of aged 15 and over into five groups, which cover age of 15∼29, of 30∼39, of 40∼49, of 50∼59, and of 60 and over. For the purpose, it establishes the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth as an indicator of the relationship between economic growth and employment. It calculates these generational elasticities in total and five groups. It analyses the aspects of the transition from the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to the post-Global Financial Crisis era, and infers the meanings of the severe difference in generational growth elasticities of employment. Finally, based on the findings, this paper provides conclusions and policy implications.
To compare the pre-Global Financial Crisis era with the post-Global Financial Crisis era, the arc elasticity of employment to economic growth is used as an indicator, that is a value of increase rate of employed persons denominated by economic growth rate. If the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is higher than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively higher than economic growth rate. On the contrary, if the growth elasticity of employment in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change which represents that increase rate of employment has been relatively lower than economic growth rate.
According to the analysis, the case of total labor population reveals a robust change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs’. However, generational aspects differ severely across the five groups. The first group of aged 15∼29 reveals that the growth elasticity of employment has changed from -0.47 in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to -0.05 in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. The second group of aged 30∼39 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.01 to -0.22. The third group of aged 40∼49 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.66 to 0.07. The forth group of aged 50∼59 reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.97 to 1.35. The fifth group of aged 60 and over reveals that the elasticity has changed from 0.69 to 2.02.
The above outcomes can be summarized as follows. First, the employment of young age population(aged 15∼39) continues to be poor. Second, the employment of prime working- age population(aged 30∼49) has been worsening. Third, the employment of middle and old age population(aged 50 and over) continues to be good.
What are the meanings and implications of these results? For college graduates, initial firm size and contract type matter for later labor performances, showing that the dual structure of labor market, which is centered around firm size and contract type, has a particularly large influence. Earnings at the first or initial job can explain future labor market performances very well. The long-term effects of the first or initial job placement play a key role in the social problem.
Middle-skilled jobs have vanished enormously, while high and low-skilled jobs have increased. Particularly, jobs have been polarized more rapidly in recessions and changed through pushing many middle-skilled prime age workers either into the inter-sector reallocation among high and low-skilled jobs or out of employment.
As the average life span increases, old age population has increased sharply. Therefore old peoples who want to gain jobs have also increased continuously. But a private support method on the elderly employment is minimal, and depending on public financial support from national or local government can not satisfy their rising needs. One of the best policy measures for old age population is to let them stay employed for a longer time. To work longer requires re-designing the lifetime work schedule, and government should tune up life-long education scheme and social insurance system.
‘Growthless jobs’ can never be sustainable. If weak economic growth continues for the time being as expected, employment can not but shrink. As a result, 'growthless jobs' will fall in the trap of 'jobless low-growth' in the end, which means that both economic growth and employment are depressed together. Rapid aging and the fact that baby-boomers already started to retire have raised a doubt about sustainable growth and a possibility of decrease in working age population.
In addition to economic growth, employment is a very important issue. So government and the private sector should provide decent jobs with adequate incomes and stable employment conditions as well as more job opportunities. It is also requested for labor market system to link job seekers to its providers, together with such public rules as higher retirement age and wage peak system.
분석정보
연월일 | 이력구분 | 이력상세 | 등재구분 |
---|---|---|---|
2022 | 평가예정 | 재인증평가 신청대상 (재인증) | |
2019-01-01 | 평가 | 등재학술지 유지 (계속평가) | KCI등재 |
2016-01-01 | 평가 | 등재학술지 유지 (계속평가) | KCI등재 |
2012-01-01 | 평가 | 등재학술지 선정 (등재후보2차) | KCI등재 |
2011-01-01 | 평가 | 등재후보 1차 PASS (등재후보1차) | KCI후보 |
2010-01-01 | 평가 | 등재후보학술지 유지 (등재후보2차) | KCI후보 |
2009-01-01 | 평가 | 등재후보 1차 PASS (등재후보1차) | KCI후보 |
2007-01-01 | 평가 | 등재후보학술지 선정 (신규평가) | KCI후보 |
기준연도 | WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) | KCIF(2년) | KCIF(3년) |
---|---|---|---|
2016 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.43 |
KCIF(4년) | KCIF(5년) | 중심성지수(3년) | 즉시성지수 |
0.42 | 0.4 | 0.668 | 0.24 |
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