서울시 화재 취약지역 예측 및 소방력 공간 최적화 연구 = Predicting Fire Risk Areas and Optimizing Firefighting Resources in Seoul

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The number of casualties and property damage caused by fires has been increasing in Korea recently. Emphasis has been placed on the critical importance of securing a golden time of 5 minutes to effectively respond to such fire incidents and minimize losses. However, achieving timely arrival at fire scenes within this crucial time frame is challenging due to high residential density and increased traffic. Particularly in Seoul, where population density is notably high, the risk of both human casualties and property damage is elevated compared to other regions. Consequently, optimal route selection and efficient spatial deployment of firefighting resources are essential for securing the golden time. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of fire risk by considering actual fire truck speeds, arrival times, road characteristics, and building features in Seoul using Random Forest and network analysis. We identified areas where achieving the golden time is difficult and fire risk is substantial. Additionally, using kernel density and hot spot analysis, improvement strategies were proposed by selecting optimal locations for fire truck proximity, and the resulting effects were quantitatively analyzed. This study revealed that among the road characteristics, turning frequency impede fire truck speeds during both peak and off-peak hours, and the number of lanes enhance dispatch speed, but the impact difference between the peak and non-peak times was about four times. At the Dong-level, Sa-dang and Jeongneung-dong showed high fire vulnerability based on both peak-hour golden time accessibility and fire risk assessment. At the Gu-level, Gangnam-gu, Gwanak-gu, and Songpa-gu demonstrated heightened vulnerability due to their history of frequent fire incidents. To mitigate fire vulnerability, 17 key improvement areas were identified and then analyzing the effect of fire truck proximity deployment to these locations during peak hours revealed significant enhancement when positioned near Nonhyeon Elementary School, Geumjeong Central Market, and the vicinity of Banghwa Gas Station. This study contributes to understanding how road characteristics impact fire truck response speeds during peak and off-peak times. Furthermore, it provides a quantitative evaluation of implementing measures to secure the golden time and reduce fire risk in vulnerable areas. These results are expected to inform optimal decision-making for emergency fire vehicle operations, considering time frames and road conditions.