한국의 중간재 교역 결정요인과 생산성 파급효과에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

World has grown so rapidly and the amount reached to $ 27.2 trillion. This is not only because of the multilateral or regional efforts toward free trade but because of global production networks and global outsourcing. Korea's trade volume continues to grow, and achieve $ 1 trillion and becomes the world's ninth country in 2011. About 50% of total exports and 70% of total imports are intermediate goods trade. Korea's intermediate goods trade is closely related to changes in division of production structure with China, Japan, ASEAN, and other Asian regions. Various researches have been conducted about total trade, while comprehensive studies on Korea's intermediate goods trade is very rare despite of its importance and weight. The purposes of this study is to increase the overall understanding on trade in intermediate goods and to present relevant policy implications by analyzing the trends, current situations, the determinants, input-output structure, and productivity spillover effects of Korea's intermediate goods trade. According to the results of determinants for World's intermediate goods trade, not only traditional explanatory variables but comparative advantage variables and institutional variables turn out to be significant determinants. Moreover, geographic factors, customs duties, shipping costs, and comparative advantage factors play more important role in intermediate goods trade than final goods trade. We found similar results for Korea's trade data. Korea mainly exports capital-intensive goods and relation-specific goods. Also Korea imports capital intensive goods from capital abundant countries and does relation-specific goods from countries with high levels of legal and institutional system. We analyze input structure of imported intermediate in Korea's industrial production by using industry linkage analysis. For analysis period (from 2000 to 2009), the share of imported intermediate is increasing. On average, each industry requires imported intermediate by 0.03 billion won in order to produce final goods by 0.1 billion won. More imported intermediates are used to produce goods for exporting than for domestic consumption or investment. We study the productivity effects and spillover path of imported intermediates by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model considering endogenous international technology spillover effects. The effects of imported intermediate on domestic competitive sectors depend on technology types and the trade relations with exporting countries. The productivity effects of imported input on final sectors using the imported intermediates are affected not by shares of imports but by amounts of imports. The greater the industry linkage relations of industy affected by imported intermediates' productivity are, the greater the real GDP growth rate and welfare improvement are. Based on this analysis, we make three policy proposals. First policy proposal includes domestic technology development for replacing imported inputs, aggressive FDI promotion, and raising concern for producer services as intermediate goods to mitigate the dependency on imported intermediate goods. Second, we propose investment in human capital, enhancement of institutional level, and improvement of investment environment to strengthen the comparative advantage. Last, we recommend to develop trade policy strategy taking intermediate goods trade into consideration. The strategies include inducing high-level concessions for industry with comparative advantage, open strategy considering technology types and industrial characteristics, increasing efforts toward exporting to enhance learning by exporting effects, and raising interest in opening intermediate service sectors.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 서언
• 국문요약
• 제1장 서 론
• 1. 연구의 필요성과 목적
• 2. 선행연구와의 차별성
• 제2장 한국의 중간재 교역 현황
• 1. 국가별 중간재 교역 현황
• 가. 수출 현황
• 나. 수입 현황
• 2. 산업별 중간재 교역 현황
• 가. 수출 현황
• 나. 수입 현황
• 3. 국가별·산업별 중간재 교역 현황
• 가. 수출 현황
• 나. 수입 현황
• 4. 소결
• 제3장 한국의 중간재 교역 결정요인 분석
• 1. 중간재 교역 결정요인 분석에 대한 이론과 선행연구
• 가. 이론과 선행연구
• 나. 선행연구와 본 연구의 차별성
• 2. 중간재 교역 결정요인 실증분석
• 가. 추정모형
• 나. 데이터
• 3. 실증분석 결과
• 가. 전 세계 중간재 교역 결정요인
• 나. 한국의 중간재 교역 결정요인
• 4. 소결
• 제4장 수입중간재의 투입구조 및 중간재 수입유발효과 분석
• 1. 개요
• 2. 분석모형 및 자료
• 가. 분석모형
• 나. 자료 및 산업 분류
• 3. 산업별 수입중간재 투입 현황
• 4. 중간재 수입유발효과
• 5. 소결
• 제5장 중간재 교역의 생산성 파급효과
• 1. 개요
• 가. 선행연구
• 나. 분석모형
• 2. 생산기술 파급효과를 고려한 CGE 모형
• 가. CGE 모형
• 나. GTAP 모형
• 3. 분석 시나리오
• 가. GTAP 데이터베이스
• 나. 시나리오
• 4. 분석결과
• 가. 화학산업
• 나. 전자산업
• 5. 소결
• 제6장 결 론
• 1. 요약
• 2. 정책적 제언
• 가. 중간재 수입의존도 저감을 위한 제언
• 나. 중간재 수출 활성화를 위한 제언
• 다. 중간재 교역을 고려한 무역협정전략에 대한 제언
• 라. 중간재 교역을 통한 경제통합에 대한 제언
• 참고문헌
• 부록
• Executive Summary