시진핑 시기 중·러 전략적 협력의 한계: 2022년 우크라이나 사태에 관한 중국의 대응을 중심으로 = Limitations of Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation in the Xi Jinping Era: Focusing on China's Response to the 2022 Ukraine Crisis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

China and Russia have strengthened cooperation in response to American hegemony. In particular, “America First,” which has recently become more pronounced, is a factor that strengthens the close relationship between China and Russia. As structural factors, such as intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition and American pressure on Russia will be challenging to resolve for some time, the strategic cooperation between China and Russia, which is mediated by the American factor, will continue. However, there are intrinsic limitations in specific strategies for cooperation between the two countries, such as differences in strategy against the U.S., historically-formed mutual distrust, and the possibility of a confrontation between Xi Jinping's "Qiangjun Meng" and Putin's "Strong Russia." Given the circumstances, China's response to the 2022 Ukrainian crisis can be seen as a representative example of the latent limitations in strategic cooperation between China and Russia. Concerning the Ukraine Crisis, China displays two sides: It has formally strengthened its cooperation with Russia but, in practice, it has avoided the international community's theory of Chinese responsibility and has refrained from an all-around cooperation with Russia.
Focusing on these points, this study examines the limitations inherent in the cooperation by analyzing China's response to the recent Ukraine Crisis, despite the incentive for cooperation to check American hegemony jointly. As a result, the Sino-Russian relationship seems to have limitations for reaching the level of alliance by further strengthening all-around cooperation. This can be seen in the following three factors: First, China, which has to protect its own interests from American pressure and checks, wants to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings and conflicts with the U.S. based on cooperation with Russia. Therefore, China may adjust the scope of cooperation with Russia according to the changes in relations with the U.S; second, as China wants to expand its influence in the international community, cooperation with Putin, who dreams of an assertive Russia, may become an obstacle. In particular, China and Russia envision different futures regarding their status and role within the changing international order; third, there is a possibility of restrictions on the economic win-win between China and Russia. While China's economic development strategy depends on its success or failure in continuous integration with the global economy and stable cooperation with the U.S. and Western markets, Russian factors may hinder it.

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