국회 국민동의청원 제도의 운영현황과 쟁점 = Analysis of Operational Performance and Challenges in the National Assembly's National Petition System

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since January 2020, the National Assembly has been operating the online platform ‘National Petition.’ As of March 2025, a total of 2,106 petitions have been registered. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the operational status of the e-petition system using various methodologies, including descriptive statistics, heatmap analysis, keyword analysis, as well as Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards modeling that account for censored data characteristics. Among the registered petitions, 268(12.7%) met the establishment criteria by acquiring more than 50,000 signatures within 30 days and were referred to the relevant committees. Policy areas showed differences between those with a high number of registered petitions and those with high establishment rates. While the largest numbers of petitions were in the fields of investigation/ legal/judicial systems, health care, and education, the highest establishment rates appeared in politics/elections/legislative administration, human rights/ gender equality/labor, and diplomacy/unification/national defense/security. Survival analysis revealed that the median time for petition establishment after the 21st National Assembly was approximately three weeks. The Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that the likelihood of petition establishment in the 22nd National Assembly was approximately three times higher than in previous terms. This is interpreted as a combined effect of the relaxation of signature requirements (from 100,000 to 50,000) and changes in the political environment. However, the review results by relevant committees showed that petitions leading to actual legislative and policy changes were very limited, with only 0.4% of registered petitions and 5.1% of established petitions reflected in legislation during the 20th and 21st National Assemblies. This low linkage between electronic petitions and policy change is also commonly observed in the United Kingdom and Germany. Therefore, the significance of the National Assembly's National Petition system lies less in direct legislative and policy changes and more in providing a channel for citizens to express their policy interests and preferences within the formal political process, thereby enhancing political efficacy.