동북아 경제 협력의 방안 = Directions of Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

During the last two decades, the four ANIE's and the ASEAN economies grew than twice as rapidly as the rest of the world. In the Northeast Asian region, economic links have been established through international trade and direct investments, tourism, expansion of contacts by private business and academia, and promotion of cultural and technical interchange. These interrelated factors have stimulated an institutional entity for Northeast Asian economic cooperation.
The mutual complementarity among the Northeast Asian countries based on the various factor endowments and different stages of industrial development and experience will expand the potentiality of inter-regional economic cooperation. Intensive economic cooperation will have Northeast Asia emerging as a new growth center of the world economy.
Within Northeast Asia intra-regional trade grew from 10.2% in 1980 to 14.0% in 1990. The intra-regional trade expasion(175.4%) amounted to 2.3 times the world trade expansion(76.2%). Although the intra-regional trade in 1990 was still lower than Northeast Asia's share of the world's GNP(25.9%), it will still grow very rapidly since the share of Northeast Asian GNP grew from 24.9% to 25.9% during the period.
Japan, the largest trade partner, accounted for more than 50% of Northeast Asian intra-regional trade, Russia 23.6%, South Korea 13.0%, China 11.8% and North Korea 0.5%, respectively.
According to the revealed comparative advantage indices in 1989, Japan had comparative advantage in the trade of most of manufactured goods, and Russia had relative advantage in the trade of inedible crude materials, chemical products and material products. China had comparative advantage in the trade of food and lives stock, miscellaneous manufactured(light manufactured) goods. North Korea had comparative advantage in the trade of inedible materials and chemical products, and South Korea had comparative advantage in the trade of material products and miscellaneous products.
Growing interdependences in trade and investment flows will continue in Northeast Asia, which may come to include all economies form newly reforming planned economies to advanced market economies. The Northeast Asia region has motivation to move toward cooperative regionalism because the EC's rapid steps toward economic unity and the formation of the NAFTA put pressure on the region to counteract such protective impulses. Another motivation is the rapid growth of intra-regional trade which will be accelerated by opening North Korea.
However, intra-regional trade within Northeast Asia is much lower than EC's intra-regional trade with exports at 59.6% and its import at 60.4% in 1988, and NAFTA's intra-regional trade with exports at 40.3%and imports at 33.5%. Accordingly, the open regionalism approach under free trade principles in Northeast Asian economic cooperation is more feasible and desirable, thereby complementing and strengthening free trade systems such as GATT.
As an approach to promote regional economic partnership in Northeast Asia, it is worthwhile to pay attention to the Tuman River Area Development Program(TRADP) which has been supported by UNDP. The TRADP seems to be a concretestarting project which facilitates economic cooperation on a sub-regional basis. The strategic location of the Tuman River Delta Area in terms of global trade patterns provide Northeast Asia with enormous potential.