中美“新冷战”视域下特朗普政府对朝鲜半岛和平机制的立场研究 = A Study on the Peace Mechanism of Trump Government towards the Korean Peninsula: from the Perspective of the New Cold War between China and America

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The paper analyzes the peace mechanism of Trump Government towards the Korean Peninsula. There has been a favorable turn in terms of political situation in the Korean Peninsula since 2018. A historic opportunity is at stake to construct the peace mechanism for the Korean Peninsula. Due to the enormous perceptional gap between North Korea and America, unfortunately, none of them has respectively changed the strategies for structural contradiction or current situation. For America, to construct the peace mechanism for the Korean Peninsula will disorganize its strategies for the security in Northeast Asia and weaken its power to contain China. Trump Government has yet to take in consideration accepting North Korea after the latter abandoning the nuclear weapons program. To engage with North Korea is seen as Trump’s effort for his next presidential election. On the other hand, the willpower of North Korea to abandon the nuclear weapon is not strong. Instead, North Korea wishes to become a country with nuclear weapons through taking advantage of the Sino-U.S. contradiction. In the circumstances, China is required to play the roles of stabilizer and catalyst, prevent the North Korea-U.S. negotiation from worsening and continue to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

本论文主要分析了特朗普政府对朝鲜半岛和平机制的立场。随着2018年以来朝鲜半岛形势的转圜,构建朝鲜半岛和 平机制面临有利的历史机遇。但是朝美之间仍横亘着很大的分歧,而且两国还没有改变朝鲜半岛的结构性矛盾和基本 态势的战略打算。对美国来说,构建朝鲜半岛和平机制会打乱美国的东北亚安全战略布局,消弱美国遏制中国的战略。特 朗普政府根本没有考虑到接纳弃核的朝鲜并构建朝鲜半岛和平机制的问题,与朝鲜接触只是为下一届总统选举加分。 朝鲜弃核的意志不强,利用中美矛盾要成为“拥核国”。中国要成为朝美谈判的“稳定器”、“催化剂”,防止朝美谈判开倒车, 继续推动朝鲜半岛无核化进程。

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