시계열기법과 패널기법을 이용한 지역성장 분석 = Regional Growth and Time-Series and Panel Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

According to endogenous growth models, per capita regional outputs have different trend growth rates. But, empirical evidence provides that they revert toward a common growth rate as neoclassical growth model predicts. The model treated technological change as exogenous. We construct a (panel) time series test of exogenous and endogenous innovation growth models. We used the concept of cointegration and transitional dynamics to examine the empirical support in spirit of Evans(1996).
This does not support endogenous growth theories in explaining economic growth across regional regions in Korea. In addition, permanent changes in investment rates do not have permanent effects on growth rate. The acceptation of exogenous growth models is strong and economic policy should be based on this framework. It implies that nothing in permanent government regional policy can have permanent effect on regional income.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

내생성장이론에 따르면, 1인당 지역생산은 서로 다른 추세성장률을 지닐 것으로 예측된다. 그러나, 시계열분석을 기반으로 한 실증분석 결과는 이 변수가 공통의 성장률으로 회귀하는 것으로 나타난다. 이는 솔로우의 외생적 성장모형이 시사하는 바이다. 본 연구에서는 두 유형의 성장모형에 대한 (패널)시계열 검정을 시행하였다. 공적분, 단위근 및 전이동학(transition dynamics) 의 개념을 Evans(1996)의 논의에 따라 적용하였다.
이는 우리나라의 지역간 경제성장을 설명하는데 있어 내생성장이론모형이 적합하지 않음을 시사한다. 또한, 물적자본 투자율의 항구적인 변화도 성장률에 지속적인 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 지역간 경제성장을 규명하는데 있어 전통적인 솔로우의 외생적 성장모형이 적합한 것으로 나타나며 지역경제정책도 이를 고려해야 한다. 즉, 정부의 항구적인 지역 경제정책변화는 성장률에 항구적인 영향을 미치지 못한다.

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