統計的 趨勢變動分析에 의한 21C 大學入試 人力의 需給豫測 = The Prediction of the Number of Applicants for Admission to University and Technical College in 21st Century Through Statistical Trend Fluctuation Analysis in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A university and technical college can not stand firm without sufficient number of students. The purpose of this study is to predict the number of applicants for admission to university and technical college in the relevant year, compared to the number of students the university and technical college will receive. It is very important, because whether the university and technical college will exist or not depends on it.
The results of the study are as follows ;
First, the probability that the present each graders in secondary school will go up to third grade of high school is 97.6% in high school 2nd graders, 94.2% in high school 1st graders, 91.7% in middle school 3rd graders, 91.0% in middle school 2nd graders and 90.8% in middle school 1st graders.
Secondly, the number of applicants for admission to university was predicted through above estimation as follows ;
◁표삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요)
Thirdly, so far the number of freshmen has increased. Followings are the total number of new students to be admitted when the number is increased, adjusted or restrained.
◁표삽입▷(원문을 참조하세요)
Lastly, therefore each university and technical college should keep seeking a device to survive, through structural adjustment, the competition among universities and technical college in 21st century.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경
• 1. 21C 대학입시 인력의 정의
• 2. 한국에 있어서 입시제도의 발달사
• 3. 입시제도와 입시수급에 관한 선행연구들
• 4. 전문대학입시 인력수급에 미친 변인들
• 5. 인력수급 전망분석을 위한 통계적 예측기법
• Ⅲ. 실증분석
• 1. 현재까지 학교급별 학생수
• 2. 대학입시 인력의 공급측면에서의 예측
• 3. 대학입시 인력의 수요측면에서의 예측
• 4. 대학입시 인력의 공급 및 수요
• Ⅳ. 결론
• 참고문헌
• 영문초록