Poisson-Generalized Pareto 분포를 이용한 폭풍해일 빈도해석 = Frequency analysis of storm surge using Poisson-Generalized Pareto distribution

국문 초록 (Abstract)

한반도는 지형학적 요건으로 인하여 태풍과 관련된 재난이 매년 발생하여 막대한 피해를 유발하고 있다. 태풍 내습시 폭풍해일과 집중호우가 동시에 발생한다면 해안지역의 침수피해는 더욱 증가할 것으로 사료된다. 이러한 관점에서 태풍과 폭풍해일의 상호의존성을 정량적으로 규명하는 것은 해안지역의 재해분석에 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 Bayesian 기법을 기반으로 절점기준을 초과하는 임계값의 초과확률을 산정하기 위하여 Poisson 분포와 Generalized-Pareto 분포를 이용한 Poisson-GP 폭풍해일 빈도해석 기법을 개발하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 개발된 Poisson-GP 폭풍해일 빈도해석 기법은 설계해수면의 불확실성을 정량적으로 제시하였으며 해안지역의 폭풍해일 관련 방재기술 향상에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Korean Peninsula is considered as one of the most typhoon related disaster prone areas. In particular, the potential risk of flooding in coastal areas would be greater when storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred at the same time. In this context, understanding the mechanism of the interactions between them and estimating the risk associated with the concurrent occurrence are of particular interests especially in low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto (Poisson-GP) distribution based storm surge frequency analysis model to combine the occurrence of the exceedance of a threshold, that is the peaks over threshold (POT), within a Bayesian framework. The storm surge frequency analysis technique developed through this study might contribute to the improvement of disaster prevention technology related to storm surge in the coastal area.

참고문헌 (Reference)

• 1 김태정, "확률론적 클러스터링 기법을 이용한 한반도 태풍경로 및 종관기후학적 분석" 한국수자원학회 47 (47): 385-396, 2014
• 2 서승원, "태풍 예경보에 근거한 폭풍해일 준실시간 즉각 예보" 한국해안,해양공학회 24 (24): 352-365, 2012
• 3 김태정, "절점기준에 따른 강우빈도 변화 및 종관기후학적 분석" 대한토목학회 36 (36): 791-803, 2016
• 4 권석재, "속초와 묵호항의 연간 최대해일고의 장기간 변동성에 대한 고찰" 한국해안,해양공학회 20 (20): 564-574, 2008
• 5 이정주, "극치수문자료의 계절성 분석 개념 및 비정상성 빈도해석을 이용한 확률강수량 해석" 한국수자원학회 43 (43): 733-745, 2010
• 6 Suzuki, S., "Typhoon‐induced concentric airglow structures in the mesopause region" 40 (40): 5983-5987, 2013
• 7 Kendall, K., "Thin-film peeling-the elastic term" 8 (8): 1449-, 1975
• 8 Lin, I. I., "The interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003)with a warm ocean eddy" 133 (133): 2635-2649, 2005
• 9 Kim, T.-J., "Stochastic analysis of typhoon-induced storm surge in the coastal area of the Korean peninsula: inference from a nonstationary, Bayesian Poisson generalized Pareto distribution" (85) : 896-900, 2018
• 10 Gilbert, R. O., "Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring" John Wiley & Sons 1987
• 11 Pickands III, J., "Statistical inference using extreme order statistics" 3 (3): 119-131, 1975
• 12 Renard, B., "Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a Bayesian framework:case study with peak-over-threshold data" 21 (21): 97-112, 2006
• 13 Wakelin, S. L., "Sea‐level dependence on the NAO over the NW european continental shelf" 30 (30): 2003
• 14 Cabanes, C., "Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations" 294 (294): 840-842, 2001
• 15 Lin, N., "Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City" 115 (115): 2010
• 16 Gelman, A., "Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models" 1 (1): 515-534, 2006
• 17 Mann, H. B., "Nonparametric tests against trend" 13 (13): 245-259, 1945
• 18 Rego, J. L., "Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from hurricane rita" 115 : C06020-, 2010
• 19 Wi, S., "Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in South Korea using peaks-over-threshold and annual maxima" 30 (30): 583-606, 2016
• 20 Emanuel, K., "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" 436 (436): 686-, 2005
• 21 Furrer, E. M., "Improving the simulation of extreme precipitation events by stochastic weather generators" 44 (44): 2008
• 22 Martins, E. S., "Generalized maximum likelihood pareto‐poisson estimators for partial duration series" 37 (37): 2551-2557, 2001
• 23 Lopeman, M., "Extreme storm surge hazard estimation in lower Manhattan" 78 (78): 355-391, 2015
• 24 Salmi, T., "Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates-the Excel template application MAKESENS"
• 25 Mattocks, C., "Design and implementation of a real-time storm surge and flood forecasting capability for the State of North Carolina" UNC-CEP 2006
• 26 Guo, Y., "Computational investigation of typhoon-induced storm surge in Hangzhou Bay, China" 85 (85): 530-536, 2009
• 27 Shi, J., "Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai, China" 60 (60): 951-969, 2012
• 28 Pugh, D., "Changing sea levels: effects of tides, weather and climate" Cambridge University Press 2004
• 29 Webster, P. J., "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment" 309 (309): 1844-1846, 2005
• 30 Solari, S., "A unified statistical model for hydrological variables including the selection of threshold for the peak over threshold method" 48 (48): 2012
• 31 Fleming, J. G., "A real time storm surge forecasting system using ADCIRC" 893-912, 2008
• 32 Papagiannaki, K., "A database of high-impact weather events in Greece: a descriptive impact analysis for the period 2001-2011" 13 (13): 727-, 2013
• 33 Lima, C. H., "A climate informed model for nonstationary flood risk prediction:Application to Negro River at Manaus, Amazonia" 522 : 594-602, 2015
• 34 Church, J. A., "A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise" 33 (33): 2006