한국의 제15대 대통령선거에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Election of the 15th President of the Republic of Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The people, though a popular vote,have selected a new President Kim Dea-Jung, standarebearer fo the major opposistion nationak COngress for New Politics, who will begin his fiven-year term Feburuary 1998.
President-elect Kim received 40.3 percent of the thotal valid votes cast, winning by an unexpectedly narrow nargin of 390,457 votes.The victory was a personal triumph for Kim, who became the first opposition candiate to be elected to the presidency in over 30 years.
He had campaingned unsuccessfully for the persidency in 1971,1987 and 1992.
Kim Dae-Jung of the National Conbress for New Polities won 40.3 percent or 10,326,275 votes out of the total 25,642,438 votes cast.The runner-up Lee Hoi-Chang of the Grand National Party won 38.7 percent for 9,935,718 votes and Rlee In-Je of the New Party by the people,19.2 percent or 4,925,591 votes.
Most political watchers attribute Kim Dae-Jung's victory in Thusday's persential election to his alliance with Kim Jung-Pil.Thanks to the alliance,Kim Dae-Jung earned the absolute support of the Chungchong area,the power base of Kim JongPil.
He won 45 percent support in Taejon,48.3 percent in South Chungchong Province amd 37.4 percent in North Chungchong Province.
These figures are some 11-20 percent higher than those ha earned in the region in the prenious presidential election.
Considering that Kim best Lee Hoi-chang by the margin of 1.6 percent, his strong showing in these areas sureil helped him a lot.
The current economic crisis which culminated in Korea's application for a bailout frpm the IMF also boosted the chances of the opposition leader winning the election.
Many middle-class people turned their backes on the ruling party and it's candidate Lee Hoi-Chang as a result pf the economic downturn,they said.
One of the result of this phenomenon is Kim's strong showing in some middle-class districts in Seoul.Kim won 44.9 percent of voter support in the capital city,4 percent more than Lee.
But most of all, the division of the ruling pqrty vote undid Lee's bid.
If it had not been fir Rlee In-Je, who left the ruling party, Kim's victorry would hane seen impossible.
Another factor involved in Kim's successful presidential bid was that there were no candidates from the Kyounsang area.
If one of the candidates had been from South or North Kyoungsang Province and made the presidential race into a contest between candidates from Choiia and Kyoungsang areas,he could not have won.
In addition,we also said the television debates among the presidential cadidate, which were introduced in presidential election for the first time, helped Kim,an eloquent speaker,gain support from votes.Moreover,TV debates provided votes with the chance to evaluate Kim by themselves not through newpaper articles or television news,which gave him the chance to diffuse people's antipathy.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 머리말
• Ⅱ. 제15대 대선의 정치사적 의미
• Ⅲ. 제15대 대선의 정치상황
• Ⅳ. 제15대 대선의 득표분석
• 1. 투표상황
• (1) 역대 대통령선거 투표상황
• (2) 지역별 투표상황
• 2. 후보자 및 정당별 득표상황
• 3. 지역별 득표상황 : 지역주의적 요인
• 4. 경제 및 이념적 투표요인
• Ⅴ. 제15대 대선의 비교 - 평가
• 1. 제14대 대선과 비교·평가
• 2. '95년 지방선거와 '96년 16대 총선과의 비교·평가
• Ⅵ. 맺음말