Year-to-Year and Inter-Decadal Fluctuations in Abundance of Pelagic Fish Populations in Relation to Climate-Induced Oceanic Conditions

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Ocean climate variables (1900～2005), time series of catches (1910～2005) and body size data were
used to assess the year-to-year and decadal scale fluctuations in abundance of the fish populations (Japanese
sardine, anchovy, jack mackerel, chub mackerel, Pacific saury and common squid) that have spawning grounds
in the East China Sea and its adjacent regions. A negative correlation between the abundance of pelagic fishes
(e.g. jack mackerel) in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC)
region was attributed to the climatic modulation of larval transport and recruitment, which depends on the winter
monsoon-induced drift, current systems, and spawning season and site. The changes in abundance and
alternation of dominant fish populations in the two regions in the 1930s, 1970s, and late 1980s mirrored changes
in the climate indices (ALPI, AOI and MOI). Oscillations in the decadal climate shifts between the two regions
led to zonal differences in larval transport and recruitment, and hence differences in the abundance of the pelagic
fish populations. During deep Aleutian Lows, as in the 1980s, larval transport from the East China Sea to the
KOC region increases in association with the strong winter Asian monsoon, cool regime and increased volume
transport of the Kuroshio Current systems, whereas during a weak Aleutian Low (as in the 1990s), larval
transport to the TWC region increased in association with a weak winter Asian monsoon, a warm regime, and
increased volume transport of the Tsushima current system. We postulate that the increased chub mackerel
abundance in the TWC region and the decreased abundance in the KOC region in the 1990s are partly attributed
to changes in recruitment and availability to the fishing fleets under the warm regime in the spawning and nursery
grounds in the East China Sea in association with the quasi-steady state of mild winter monsoon in the 1990s.
The fluctuations in chub mackerel and jack mackerel abundance are under the environment-dependant growth
form, although the tropicalization was identified in the TWC region. The density-dependant growth form was
found in Japanese sardine populations, but no tropicalization by fishing was identified in the long (10～15 year)
periods of abundance despite their short (3～4 year) generation time, suggesting that the environment-dependant
growth form drove the changes in abundance. Year-to-year and decadal scale variations in abundance and
population structure of the Pacific saury responded to climate regime shifts (1976/1977, 1988/1989), suggesting
that the fish is a key bio-indicators for changes in the ecosystem.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Ocean climate variables (1900～2005), time series of catches (1910～2005) and body size data were
used to assess the year-to-year and decadal scale fluctuations in abundance of the fish populations (Japanese
sardine, anchovy, jack mackerel, chub mackerel, Pacific saury and common squid) that have spawning grounds
in the East China Sea and its adjacent regions. A negative correlation between the abundance of pelagic fishes
(e.g. jack mackerel) in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC)
region was attributed to the climatic modulation of larval transport and recruitment, which depends on the winter
monsoon-induced drift, current systems, and spawning season and site. The changes in abundance and
alternation of dominant fish populations in the two regions in the 1930s, 1970s, and late 1980s mirrored changes
in the climate indices (ALPI, AOI and MOI). Oscillations in the decadal climate shifts between the two regions
led to zonal differences in larval transport and recruitment, and hence differences in the abundance of the pelagic
fish populations. During deep Aleutian Lows, as in the 1980s, larval transport from the East China Sea to the
KOC region increases in association with the strong winter Asian monsoon, cool regime and increased volume
transport of the Kuroshio Current systems, whereas during a weak Aleutian Low (as in the 1990s), larval
transport to the TWC region increased in association with a weak winter Asian monsoon, a warm regime, and
increased volume transport of the Tsushima current system. We postulate that the increased chub mackerel
abundance in the TWC region and the decreased abundance in the KOC region in the 1990s are partly attributed
to changes in recruitment and availability to the fishing fleets under the warm regime in the spawning and nursery
grounds in the East China Sea in association with the quasi-steady state of mild winter monsoon in the 1990s.
The fluctuations in chub mackerel and jack mackerel abundance are under the environment-dependant growth
form, although the tropicalization was identified in the TWC region. The density-dependant growth form was
found in Japanese sardine populations, but no tropicalization by fishing was identified in the long (10～15 year)
periods of abundance despite their short (3～4 year) generation time, suggesting that the environment-dependant
growth form drove the changes in abundance. Year-to-year and decadal scale variations in abundance and
population structure of the Pacific saury responded to climate regime shifts (1976/1977, 1988/1989), suggesting
that the fish is a key bio-indicators for changes in the ecosystem.

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