섬진강 옥정호 유역의 수자원 관리를 위한 SWAT 모델과 HSPF 모델의 비교 분석 = Evaluation of SWAT model and HSPF model predictions for water resource management in the Okjeong Lake watershed of the Seomjin River

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서는 섬진강 상류 옥정호의 유역에서 유입하는 유량. 총인(TP), 총질소(TN) 및 총부유물질(TSS) 유입량을 산정하기 위해 널리 사용되는 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델 및 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran)를 동시에 적용한 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 환경부에서 제공하는 2012년부터 2021년까지의 현장의 각종 자료를 위 두 가지 모델의 입력자료와 보정자료로 사용하였으며 결정계수(R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) 및 Percent Bias (PBIAS)등을 정확도의 평가지표로 이용하였다. 유량 의 경우 SWAT 모델은 본 연구의 실측자료에 대해 평균 R2 0.82 및 NSE 0.72로, HSPF 모델의 R2 0.76 및 NSE 0.67의 경우보다 약간 더 정확하거나 유사한 성능을 보였다. 그러나 수질 모의의 경우 SWAT 모델은 TN 13.2%, TP 19.1%, TSS 31.5%의 평균 PBIAS를 보인 반면, HSPF 모델은 TN 17.2%, TP 23.2%, TSS 25.9%의 평균 PBIAS를 나타냈다. 이러한 결과는 두 모델 모두 실측 수질을 정확하게 모의하는 데에는 한계가 있음을 시사한다. 본 연구에서는 두 가지 모델의 예측 결과를 토대로 오차의 원인을 분석하고 비점오염 부하 저감 등 옥정호의 수질관리를 위해 적절한 유역모델을 선택하는 데에 유용한 사례를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study conducted a comparative analysis by simultaneously applying the widely used SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran) models to estimate the inflow of discharge, total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and total suspended solids (TSS) into Okjeong Lake, located in the upper reaches of the Seomjin River. Data provided by the Ministry of Environment from 2012 to 2021 were used as input and calibration data for both models, and performance evaluation metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were utilized to assess model accuracy. For flow calibration, the SWAT model showed slightly better performance, with an average R2 of 0.82 and NSE of 0.72 across all stations, compared to the HSPF model’s R2 of 0.76 and NSE of 0.67. However, for water quality calibration, the SWAT model had an average PBIAS of 13.2% for TN, 19.1% for TP, and 31.5% for TSS, while the HSPF model had an average PBIAS of 17.2% for TN, 23.2% for TP, and 25.9% for TSS. These results suggest that both models are limited in their ability to accurately simulate real world water quality. Based on the predicted results of the two models, this study analyzed the causes of the errors and provided useful examples for selecting an appropriate watershed model for water quality management of Okjeong Lake, including non-point source pollution load reduction.

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