지역의 외국인주민 유형 구성과 인구증감률의 관계 분석:2016–2023년 시군구 패널자료를 중심으로 = Analyzing the Relationship Between the Composition of Foreign Resident Types and Regional Population Growth Rates:Evidence from Si-Gun-Gu Panel Data, 2016–2023

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

(Purpose) This study aims to decompose foreign residents from a single aggregate group into specific categories—foreign workers, marriage migrants, international students, and overseas Koreans—and to analyze how changes in their compositional shares are related to regional population growth rates at the si-gun-gu level.
(Research methods) To this end, this study constructed a nationwide si-gun-gu–year panel dataset for the period 2016–2023 by combining data on local foreign residents and population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety with indicators of regional economy, demographic structure, housing conditions, and policy environment. The relationship between the population growth rate from time t-1 to time t and the composition of foreign residents by type and regional conditions was estimated using a panel regression model with regional and year fixed effects. The validity of the model was examined through the stepwise addition of control variables and the Hausman test.
(Findings) The results show that the shares of foreign workers and marriage migrants maintain relatively stable positive relationships with regional population growth rates even after controlling for various local conditions, whereas the initially positive association of international students becomes statistically insignificant once additional controls are introduced. The share of overseas Koreans turns negative or remains only marginally significant depending on the level of controls.
(Conclusion and recommendations) These findings suggest that explanations of regional population change should consider not only the overall scale of foreign residents but also their compositional differences and settlement pathways. In particular, policy efforts that support labor market integration and household-based settlement are important for foreign workers and marriage migrants, while differentiated local immigration policies that incorporate education, employment, status transition, onward/return migration, and other mobility patterns are required for international students and overseas Koreans.