KCI등재
중국·대만관계와 동아시아의 안보 = China-Taiwan Relation and East Asian Security
저자
김승채 (고려대 평화연구소)
발행기관
학술지명
권호사항
발행연도
1997
작성언어
Korean
KDC
390.000
등재정보
KCI등재
자료형태
학술저널
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The aim of this article is to examine the influence of the relation between China and Taiwan on East Asian security.
In order to achieve the aim, I analyzed changes of political relations between China and Taiwan, content and characteristics of economic exchanges, change of military and security policies between China and Taiwan, relation between the U.S. and the China Strait, development and prospects of the relation between china and Taiwan, and relation between two side and East Asian Security.
After examination thoes factors I drew conclusion as follow. First, pertaining to political relations between two sides there are three evolving stages. In the first stage, 1949-1978 is characterized by extreme rivalry relation between two sides. During tis period period there was no attempt to breakthrough stalemate. The only effort to solve the relation by China resulted in an empty echo because of Taiwan's indifference. In the second period of 1978-1994 there were thaws between two sides. In 1979 the Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China reversed it's extremely hostilie policies toward Taiwan, and proposed to quit military confrontaton and called for 'three links' and 'four exchanges between two sides. In 1982 China passed the law which treats Taiwan as a 'special administrative region' with high degree of autonomy. After that Deng Xiaoping pronounced the reunification formula of 'one country, two systems' in 1984.
To respond China's policy Taiwan lifted it's ban on visits by Taiwan residents to the mainland in November 1987. And in 1991 Taiwan ended its official 'state of war' with the mainland. During this period, especially from 1987 to 1993 personal exchanges between two sides reached 6 million persons. So I can say this period is identified by what we called thaw of cross-strait relation.
Since 1995 I call it as a reconciliation period of two sides. During this period Jiang Zemin announced 'eight-point speech on Taiwan issue in 1995. But Lee Denghui's visit to the United States in June of 1995 made waves the relation between China and Taiwan including the relation between China and US. After that relation between China and Taiwan was deteriorated. Especially the military tension between China and Taiwan culminated just before Taiwan's the first direct presidential election in March of 1996.
But China's missile exercise near Taiwan island made no winner or loser. China's military training helped Lee Denghui to be the first directly elected president. During the militay training period Lee's popularity has increased. As a result China had a good political effect on decreasing Taiwan's independent movement and Taiwan's political advertisement of the first direct presidential election. And US acquired leverage to China through selling F-16 fighters to Taiwan and could have arms trade with Taiwan.
Second, the economic exchanges between two sides is the most important and positive aspect of cross strait relations. Trade between two sides reached 8.6 billion dollars in 1993. There are many charteristics in economic exchanges. For instance, economic exchanges depend on the principle of separation of politics from economics. Since 1987 economic exchanges between two through Honk Kong rapidly increased. Taiwan's investment pattern in China change from secific area and item to various area and items. Trade dependency of Taiwan on mainland has been intensified. And recently direct trade between two has increased.
Pattern of economic cooperation of two sides is characterized by a vertical division of labor system in which raw materials of Taiwan are combined with Chinsese low cost labor and then export products the third world.
The catalystic factors of trade between two sides are complementary nature of economies intermediate mechanism to foster economic exchanges, geographical nearness, and has a similar language and cultural background.
But there are some restrictions on the relation between two sides. Such as different economic system, and different goals, furthermore economic exchanges are not to facilitate local economic development but to focus on oversea trade which is not contributed to significant trade conversion.
Third, military relation of two sides is the worst aspects of the relations. China and Taiwan have increased their defense expenditures in opposition to the world trend. But each side has different characterics. First in defense expenditure China' aim to increase it is to react 'on the China Threat'. In other words China aims to respond western power, especially US in Northeast Asia. On the other hand Taiwan aims to build herself and to increase its autonmy from China. Second in arms import China had the autonomy. When China imports arms from outside, most of them from Russia, with technology. But Taiwan imports full set of arms. So China has autonomy of arms system, but not Taiwan.
Like other fields in the area of military relation, there are opportunities and challenges. There are some opportunities to decrease military tension such as the Post-cold war trend, Chinese economic growth, uncertain succession problem, PLA problem, US factor. Taiwan also has striking military differences between two sides, Taiwan's economic dependency on China, and ambiguous attitude of other states which previously support Taiwan on Taiwan's military buildup.
But on the other hand there are some challenges to aggrevate the military confrontation between both sides. Those conclude the voice of Taiwan's independence, Chinese political unstability after Deng, and Taiwan's effort to enter the UN and to expand foreign relationship with other countries.
If the war occures Taiwan can adapt three strategies ; balance of power, formation of collective security system, and neo-functional strategy. Among three strategies the last neo-functional strategy is the best policy for Taiwan.
US role toward cross-strait is clear. Though US superficially and formally support China, but she will practically raise Taiwan's hand. Under the Shanghai Communique in 1972, US acknowledged 'one China policy' in China. Since then US policy toward China officially followed this logic, but reality is different.
From 1949 to 1979, normalization of diplomatic relation between US and China, US use black and white policy(zero-sum game) toward China, but after Deng era US will rely on positive-sum policy toward Cross-strait issues.
Finally relation between two has influence on East Asian Security. It can give a chance to Japan to rebuild military power, and South and North Korea to buildup military power. And then it can increase the tension of Korean peninsular.
In conclusion the relation between China and Taiwan has strong effects not only two states but also on neighbor countries.
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